重视语言教与学中的“情感过滤”

本文在简要论述什么是第二语言习得及二语习得理论对语言教师实践的重要意义的基础上,着重探讨了二语习得中情感因素的研究成果,特别是"情感过滤"现象的存在对外语教与学的启示.     

Analysis of the human sex ratio by using overdispersion models

For study of the human sex ratio, one of the most important data sets was collected in Saxony in the 19th century by Geissler. The data contain the sizes of families, with the sex of all children, at the time of registration of the birth of a child. These data are reanalysed to determine how the probability for each sex changes with family size. Three models for overdispersion are fitted: the beta–binomial model of Skellam, the 'multiplicative' binomial model of Altham and the double-binomial model of Efron. For each distribution, both the probability and the dispersion parameters are allowed to vary simultaneously with family size according to two separate regression equations. A finite mixture model is also fitted. The models are fitted using non-linear Poisson regression. They are compared using direct likelihood methods based on the Akaike information criterion. The multiplicative and beta–binomial models provide similar fits, substantially better than that of the double-binomial model. All models show that both the probability that the child is a boy and the dispersion are greater in larger families. There is also some indication that a point probability mass is needed for families containing children uniquely of one sex.     

Multivariate temporal disaggregation with cross-sectional constraints

Multivariate temporal disaggregation deals with the historical reconstruction and nowcasting of economic variables subject to temporal and contemporaneous aggregation constraints. The problem involves a system of time series that are related not only by a dynamic model but also by accounting constraints. The paper introduces two fundamental (and realistic) models that implement the multivariate best linear unbiased estimation approach that has potential application to the temporal disaggregation of the national accounts series. The multivariate regression model with random walk disturbances is most suitable to deal with the chained linked volumes (as the nature of the national accounts time series suggests); however, in this case the accounting constraints are not binding and the discrepancy has to be modeled by either a trend-stationary or an integrated process. The tiny, compared with other driving disturbances, size of the discrepancy prevents maximum-likelihood estimation to be carried out, and the parameters have to be estimated separately. The multivariate disaggregation with integrated random walk disturbances is suitable for the national accounts aggregates expressed at current prices, in which case the accounting constraints are binding.     

我国通货膨胀率非线性特征研究

 本文应用带单位根的门限自回归模型,对我国1990年来以来通货膨胀率的动态路径进行了模拟分析。估计和检验发现了我国通货膨胀具有明显的非线性特征,模型较好地拟合了通货膨胀的动态调整过程。我国通货膨胀调整存在减速通货膨胀状态、适中通货膨胀状态和加速通货膨胀状态三个区制。适中通货膨胀状态是一个平稳的自回归过程,减速通货膨胀状态、加速通货膨胀状态则是具有单位根的自回归过程,具有自我加速的作用。在不同的区制下,通货膨胀率均有较高的持久性,但中间状态的持久性明显低于其他两种状态。     

A modification of the Whittaker–Henderson method of graduation

This paper presents a modified Whittaker–Henderson (WH) Method of Graduation. After giving a closed-form solution, we show that it is of practical use because it provides not only a smoothed series identical to that of the WH graduation, but also an extrapolation beyond the sample limit of current data. In addition, we introduce two other penalized least squares problems and show that they provide the same results as those of the modified WH graduation.     

一种双星定位与捷联惯性的融合方法

捷联惯性导航系统的主要缺点是导航定位误差随时间增长,双星定位系统是一种区域性卫星定位系统,可输出较高精度的水平位置,然而双星定位系统具有位置滞后与用户隐蔽性差的特点,针对其位置滞后现象研究了捷联惯性导航系统与双星定位系统进行组合的滤波方法,提出了其量测噪声的统计模型,同时设计其组合的时机以弥补系统的隐蔽性差的问题。仿真结果表明该滤波方法可行,具有较好的工程应用价值。     

A UNIFIED FRAMEWORK FOR MODELLING WILDLIFE POPULATION DYNAMICS†

This paper proposes a unified framework for defining and fitting stochastic, discrete‐time, discrete‐stage population dynamics models. The biological system is described by a state‐space model, where the true but unknown state of the population is modelled by a state process, and this is linked to survey data by an observation process. All sources of uncertainty in the inputs, including uncertainty about model specification, are readily incorporated. The paper shows how the state process can be represented as a generalization of the standard Leslie or Lefkovitch matrix. By dividing the state process into subprocesses, complex models can be constructed from manageable building blocks. The paper illustrates the approach with a model of the British grey seal metapopulation, using sequential importance sampling with kernel smoothing to fit the model.     

基带升余弦谱波形的数字实现及其分析

介绍了二进制横向滤波器(BTF)直接实现数据限带传输升余弦谱脉冲波形成形的方法。着重研究了影响横向滤波器结构的参数(每波特内取样数 K,单位冲激响应波形旁瓣数 L)与BTF 的阻带衰减和所形成升余弦谱信号在最坏情况下的码间干扰之间的关系,为优化工程设计提供了依据。最后给出了数值实例和实验结果。     

Spectral properties of the concurrent and forecasting seasonal linear filters of the X-11-ARIMA method

This study analyzes the properties of the linear filters of the X-11-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method applied for current seasonal adjustment. It provides the general formula for the combined weights that result from the ARIMA model extrapolation filters with the X-11 seasonal-adjustment filters. The three cases studied correspond to the three ARIMA models automatically tested by the X-11-ARIMA program, namely, (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1), (0, 2, 2)(0, 1, 1), and (2, 1. 2)(0, 1,1). The parameter values chosen reflect different degrees of flexibility of the trend-cycle and seasonal components. It is shown that the X-11-ARIMA linear filters for current seasonal adjustment are very flexible; they change with both the ARIMA extrapolation model and its parameter values, contrary to those of the X-11 program, which are fixed for a given set of options.     

彩色图像脉冲噪声的自适应矢量滤波

提出了基于噪声像素检测的自适应矢量滤波器的新方法,该法对图像中噪声像素进行检测时,仅对噪声像素进行矢量滤波,而对非噪声像素则保持其原值不变,并可根据图像噪声情况自适应地选择滤波窗口。新滤波器能有效地滤除彩色随机脉冲噪声,并保持图像边缘与细节,其性能优于经典的矢量中值滤波器、方向一距离滤波器、方向一幅度矢量滤波器等非线性滤波器。