Bayesian predictive densities based on latent information priors

Construction methods for prior densities are investigated from a predictive viewpoint. Predictive densities for future observables are constructed by using observed data. The simultaneous distribution of future observables and observed data is assumed to belong to a parametric submodel of a multinomial model. Future observables and data are possibly dependent. The discrepancy of a predictive density to the true conditional density of future observables given observed data is evaluated by the Kullback-Leibler divergence. It is proved that limits of Bayesian predictive densities form an essentially complete class. Latent information priors are defined as priors maximizing the conditional mutual information between the parameter and the future observables given the observed data. Minimax predictive densities are constructed as limits of Bayesian predictive densities based on prior sequences converging to the latent information priors.     

A modified subset selection formulation with special reference to one-way and two-way layout experiments

The usual formulation of subset selection due to Gupta (1956) requires a minimum guaranteed probability of a correct selection. The modified formulation of the present paper includes an additional requirement that the expected number of the nonbest populations be bounded above by a specified constant when the best and the next best populations are ‘sufficiently’ apart. A class of procedures is defined and the determination of the minimum sample size required is discussed. The specific problems discussed for normal populations include selection in terms of means and variances, and selection in terms of treatment effects in a two-way layout.     

A class of weighted normal distributions and its variants useful for inequality constrained analysis

This article develops a class of the weighted normal distributions for which the probability density function has the form of a product of a normal density and a weight function. The class constitutes marginal distributions obtained from various kinds of doubly truncated bivariate normal distributions. This class of distributions strictly includes the normal, skew–normal and two-piece skew–normal and is useful for selection modelling and inequality constrained normal mean analysis. Some distributional properties and Bayesian perspectives of the class are given. Probabilistic representation of the distributions is also given. The representation is shown to be straightforward to specify distribution and to implement computation, with output readily adapted for required analysis. Necessary theories and illustrative examples are provided.     

Data-dependent probability matching priors of the second order

In this paper, we consider the preliminary test approach for the estimation of the regression parameter in a multiple regression model under a multicollinearity situation. The preliminary test two-parameter estimators based on the Wald (W), likelihood ratio, and Lagrangian multiplier tests are given, when it is suspected that the regression parameter may be restricted to a subspace and the regression error is distributed with multivariate Student's t distribution. The bias and mean square error of the proposed estimators are derived and compared. The conditions of superiority of the proposed estimators are obtained. Finally, we conclude that the optimum choice of the level of significance becomes the traditional choice by using the Wald test.     

Use of prior information for estimating the variance components

The MINQUE and its modifications are considered for estimating the variances of the balanced one-way random effects model. The effects of the a priori values on the estimators of the variances are examined in detail. The Mean Square Errors of the estimators are compared for variations in the prior values of the unknown variances.     

信息社会管理者合理决策行为研究

决策离不开信息的支持.进入信息社会,先进的信息技术为管理者决策提供了信息收集和处理的技术手段,使得决策方法更加科学化,同时,决策行为的科学化同样应予以足够的重视.文章探讨了在当今信息社会环境中,管理者的合理决策行为模式.     

“以庄解庄”方法论浅析

正确理解<庄子>意蕴的关键在于解读方法的选择.历代读庄皆有不同的方法."以庄解庄"突破传统"以它平它"的理论,反拨将<庄子>现代化,消解将<庄子>原点化和读者化."以庄解庄"方法论将开显庄子研究的新气象.     

Marginal Means/Rates Models for Multiple Type Recurrent Event Data

Recurrent events are frequently observed in biomedical studies, and often more than one type of event is of interest. Follow-up time may be censored due to loss to follow-up or administrative censoring. We propose a class of semi-parametric marginal means/rates models, with a general relative risk form, for assessing the effect of covariates on the censored event processes of interest. We formulate estimating equations for the model parameters, and examine asymptotic properties of the parameter estimators. Finite sample properties of the regression coefficients are examined through simulations. The proposed methods are applied to a retrospective cohort study of risk factors for preschool asthma.     

试论孔子"为政先礼"的治国方略

孔子生活时代 ,“礼”的政治含义和思想内涵是“礼制”、“礼仪”、“礼治”、“礼俗”。孔子建立“礼”治社会的主张和措施是“礼以教人”、当权者率先“好礼”、“克己复礼”。孔子对“礼制”的创新和改革表现为“损益”西周以来的礼制 ,扩大“礼治”的社会基础 ,向传统的“礼教”提出挑战     

引导学生学通学活物理通量概念

物理学中的"通量"概念非常重要,根据通量的基本定义展开讨论"电通亮"、"磁通量"、"光通量"及"水流速疏通量"等概念,从而引导学生如何形成基本概念,学会实学,领悟真知;如何理解概念,学会融会贯通,扩展知识;如何更新知识,学会创新思维,自我升华.