基于评价结论的二次组合评价方法研究

针对不同的组合评价方法所获取的一次组合评价结果依旧存在不一致性和收敛性较差等问题,提出了"二次组合评价"的概念,并研究了一种基于评价结论的二次组合评价方法。给出了该方法的关键流程和实现步骤,主要包括综合评价问题描述,单一评价方法的问题描述,组合评价方法的问题描述,评价结论的一致性分析,基于偏移度最小的二次组合评价方法选取以及二次组合评价的收敛性分析,并通过算例对本文提出的二次组合评价方法进行分析,案例研究结果表明二次组合评价结果的误差要远小于各一次组合评价结果的误差,与一次组合评价相比,二次组合评价的组合效果更好,有效性更强。通过二次组合评价可以有效提高一次组合评价的一致性和收敛性,降低一次组合评价的组合误差,提高综合评价整体评价结论的可信度。     

Communicating Research to Policymakers

This piece offers suggestions based on some things we expected to learn and from some things we did not expect to learn about communicating research to congressional policymakers. Some of these are insider discoveries from working as a professional staff member for a joint committee of the US Senate and the US House of Representatives. Other things we learned came largely as surprises from attempts to provide basic information and issue awareness about socioeconomic conditions in the Southern Black Belt directly to the Congress as well as indirectly through public interest and grassroots groups. One of the surprising discoveries, working professionally both on the inside of Congress and on the outside as social scientists, is how well social interaction actually works. And there were other surprises as well. This article is based on an August 16 panel presentation by the first author at the 2003 meeting of the American Sociological Association in Atlanta. The panel was organized by Larry Burmeister of the University of Kentucky. Material written in the first person singular in the first section of this article, “From the Inside,” is from the first author’s experiences. Later, portions of the text beginning with the subhead, “On the Outside,” and stated in the first person plural are by both authors.     

人工智能产品算法设计者的犯罪过失判断——以危惧感说的核心观点为立场

判断人工智能产品算法设计者的过失时,修正的旧过失论对导致危害结果发生的因果历程设置了具体预见可能性标准,这一标准与算法的黑箱属性以相关性而不是因果关系为基础的决策过程存在冲突。同时,此立场只重视结果忽视行为的逻辑会打击算法设计者的积极性,阻碍算法进步。新过失论虽然以结果避免义务作为犯罪过失的核心,但是其对结果预见可能性的标准缺乏具体设计,在判断预见可能性时往往束手无策。因此,两种立场都不是判断人工智能产品算法设计者犯罪过失的合理方案。相比之下,虽然危惧感说(超新过失论)认为结果预见可能性只需达到危惧感的观点受到了主流观点的批评,但这种批评值得商榷:其一,只看到了这种立场对结果预见可能性的低程度要求,却没有看到这种要求背后的核心观点对于判断犯罪过失的合理性;其二,将危惧感说提出者本人对个别案件的过失判断等同于危惧感说的全部,略显片面。与修正的旧过失论和新过失论相比,危惧感说的核心观点是:结果预见可能性与结果避免义务存在相互关联性,这是判断人工智能产品算法设计者犯罪过失的合理方案。以危惧感说的核心观点为思路,犯罪过失包括客观的结果预见可能性、客观的结果预见义务和客观的结果避免义务。人工智能产品算法设计者客观的结果预见可能性的标准是:一旦遭遇包含异常因素的特殊情况,算法有可能做出不利决策,进而引发消极后果。算法设计者客观的结果预见义务的内容是:其一,应当预见到其设计的算法不仅会被用于没有异常因素出现的正常情况,而且可能被用于伴随异常因素出现的特殊情况;其二,一旦其设计的算法面临特殊情况,该系统可能会做出不利决策。算法设计者客观的结果避免义务的内容是:应当避免在设计算法时植入为社会公众普遍反对或不赞同的价值理念;在设计时检验"投喂"给算法系统的数据质量,最大程度防止缺陷数据进入算法机器学习训练的"垃圾进"风险;及时告知产品生产者算法可能面对的异常情况。     

十六大以来党对民族理论的新发展

不断完善创新民族理论政策是做好当今民族工作的重要基础.十六大以来,以胡锦涛为总书记的党中央,将马克思主义民族理论与我国当今民族现实相结合,创造性地完善发展了党的民族区域自治制度、各民族共同发展的原则、各民族和谐相处的关系,并付诸实践,卓有成效.     

利用记忆心理学提高外语教学效果

文章将对记忆的基本概念、类型,记忆的过程以及记忆的规律进行分析,研究如何在外语教学中运用记忆心理学的理论和研究成果,并结合实际情况,探求利用记忆心理学提高外语教学效果的具体方法。     

Framing the results agenda in Swedish development co‐operation

The demand for results within international development co‐operation has increased over recent decades. Although many development actors agree on the necessity of improving their reporting on results, there is no general definition of what a result is or what the so‐called results agenda entails. With examples from Swedish development co‐operation and Swedish development relations with Uganda, this article explores how development actors are framing the results agenda. The findings, drawn from document analysis and interviews with stakeholders in Sweden and Uganda, reveal that Swedish development actors have different ways of describing the problem they intend to address with the results agenda, leading to misunderstandings over the implementation of the agenda and the effectiveness of the development co‐operation.     

Inference and Missing Data: Asymptotic Results

In Rubin (1976) the missing at random (MAR) and missing completely at random (MCAR) conditions are discussed. It is concluded that the MAR condition allows one to ignore the missing data mechanism when doing likelihood or Bayesian inference but also that the stronger MCAR condition is in some sense the weakest generally sufficient condition allowing (conditional) frequentist inference while ignoring the missing data mechanism. In this paper it is shown that (a slightly strengthened version of) the MAR condition is sufficient to yield ordinary large sample results for estimators and test statistics and thus may be used for (asymptotic) frequentist inference.     

An Introduction to Second-Generation p-Values

ABSTRACT

Second generation p-values preserve the simplicity that has made p-values popular while resolving critical flaws that promote misinterpretation of data, distraction by trivial effects, and unreproducible assessments of data. The second-generation p-value (SGPV) is an extension that formally accounts for scientific relevance by using a composite null hypothesis that captures null and scientifically trivial effects. Because the majority of spurious findings are small effects that are technically nonnull but practically indistinguishable from the null, the second-generation approach greatly reduces the likelihood of a false discovery. SGPVs promote transparency, rigor and reproducibility of scientific results by a priori identifying which candidate hypotheses are practically meaningful and by providing a more reliable statistical summary of when the data are compatible with the candidate hypotheses or null hypotheses, or when the data are inconclusive. We illustrate the importance of these advances using a dataset of 247,000 single-nucleotide polymorphisms, i.e., genetic markers that are potentially associated with prostate cancer.     

河北工程大学学生体质与健康调研结果分析

高校学生是高层次的知识型人才,肩负着社会主义现代化建设的重任,他们的体质与健康状况好坏事关我国全民族的健康素质。此次调研结果表明：河北工程大学19-22岁汉族学生的部分身体形态发育指标略有所提高;身高标准体重统计数据结果显示正常体重比例偏低;四个组别的肺活量均值较2005年全国平均水平有较大涨幅;部分身体素质指标下降幅度较大,男生引体向上的完成结果并不尽如人意。针对部分指标下降的原因进行了讨论,并提出了相应的合理化建议,为相关部门提供参考。     

从陈寅恪研究到义宁陈氏文化世家研究——25年来"陈学"的回顾与思考

20世纪80年代初,国内学术界兴起了陈寅恪研究,但影响未能超出学界太远。90年代,出现了持续甚久的“陈寅恪热”,成为一种文化现象。他的人格、思想不仅为学术界?文化界大多数人所认可?赞颂,而且由书斋走向大众,陈氏家族研究也开始受到“陈学”界广泛的关注。进入21世纪后,“陈寅恪热”有所降温,学界开始理智冷静地研究陈寅恪,并加强了陈氏家族研究的分量,出现了陈寅恪研究与陈氏家族研究并重的局面。20多年来“陈学”研究表明,“陈学”有着多方面的课题价值,值得学界以“预流”的眼光介入。