Comparison of the Historic Recycling Risk for BSE in Three European Countries by Calculating the Basic Reproduction Ratio R0

A deterministic model of BSE transmission is used to calculate the R(0) values for specific years of the BSE epidemics in the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands (NL), and Switzerland (CH). In all three countries, the R(0) values decreased below 1 after the introduction of a ban on feeding meat and bone meal (MBM) to ruminants around the 1990s. A variety of additional measures against BSE led to further decrease of R(0) to about 0.06 in the years around 1998. The calculated R(0) values were consistent with the observations made on the surveillance results for UK, but were partially conflicting with the surveillance results for NL and CH. There was evidence for a dependency of the BSE epidemic in NL and CH from an infection source not considered in the deterministic transmission model. Imports of MBM and feed components can be an explanation for this discrepancy, and the importance of imports for these observations is discussed.     

Comment on An and Schorfheide's Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models

An and Schorfheide's article provides an excellent review of Bayesian estimation of DSGE models. Rather than recapitulating the points already made in this article, my comment focuses on three aspects. It proposes a convergence measure to take account of serial correlation of MCMC draws, explains why the DSGE-VAR framework for policy analysis can be improved by avoiding the ad hoc identification assumption, and discusses an alternative structural approach to model misspecification.     

湖南省城市等级体系分析

在一个国家或者区域，因城市所处的内外条件不同会形成城市间不同的职能分工，同时也形成不同的城市规模。利用湖南各市的人口数据，讨论湖南省的城市人口规模体系及分布特征，表明湖南省城市规模呈现相对均衡的等级分布，并分析其首位度不高的形成原因。为了提高城市体系的整体实力，湖南提出了长株潭一体化和“3＋5”城市群的发展策略。     

叙词表对检索系统检索效率的影响

从叙词表的专指度、语词句法及叙词表结构等方面分析了叙词表对检索系统效率的影响 ,重点分析了在提高检全率和检准率的同时 ,要注重叙词表的结构设计 ,在保证检全率的前提下进一步提高检准率 ,旨在为叙词表设计者提供一些参考。     

斜拉桥主梁损伤对车激索力响应的影响研究

以斜拉桥的损伤识别为目的,提出了一种索力比指标,研究了斜拉桥在车辆荷载激励下,主梁发生损伤时斜拉索索力比指标的变化规律。以实验室独塔斜拉桥试验模型为研究对象,基于ANSYS建立其空间板壳有限元模型,以单元刚度的折减模拟主梁损伤,对主梁在不同位置损伤、不同程度损伤两类工况下,车辆荷载激励下斜拉索的索力比指标变化进行了数值仿真。结果表明：车辆荷载激励下,斜拉索的索力比指标与主梁的损伤位置和损伤程度存在一定的对应关系。为后续基于车辆荷载激励下的索力响应指标识别斜拉桥损伤方法的研究提供了重要的参考,具有一定的理论意义。     

考虑质量成本的再制造系统批量计划综合优化

研究需求和再制造率不确定下整个再制造系统的综合协调问题,帮助再制造商制定各环节批量决策以实现整体最优． 首先,考虑对应其拆卸后不同质量状况的差异再制造成本,构建能反映质量成本的拆卸和再制造总成本模型; 接着,考虑新零部件采购提前期,利用两阶段利润函数的思想,构建包括拆卸、再制造和重新装配3个子系统中所有成本因素、以利润最大化为目标的优化模型; 然后,求解最优再制造/拆卸比率、拆卸批量、再制造/采购批量和重新装配批量; 最后,通过算例验证并讨论平均再制造零部件获取成本对再制造批量、采购批量、拆卸和再制造总成本以及总利润的影响,再制造/拆卸比率和单位拆卸成本的关系．     

Measures of Association and Visualization of Log Odds Ratio Structure for a Two Way Contingency Table

The odds ratio (OR) is a measure of association used for analysing an I × J contingency table. The total number of ORs to check grows with I and J. Several statistical methods have been developed for summarising them. These methods begin from two different starting points, the I × J contingency table and the two‐way table composed by the ORs. In this paper we focus our attention on the relationship between these methods and point out that, for an exhaustive analysis of association through log ORs, it is necessary to consider all the outcomes of these methods. We also introduce some new methodological and graphical features. In order to illustrate previously used methodologies, we consider a data table of the cross‐classification of the colour of eyes and hair of 5387 children from Scotland. We point out how, through the log OR analysis, it is possible to extract useful information about the association between variables.     

Dynamic Bayesian analysis of generalized odds ratios assuming multivariate skew-normal distribution for the error terms in the system equation

In this paper, we develop a methodology for the dynamic Bayesian analysis of generalized odds ratios in contingency tables. It is a standard practice to assume a normal distribution for the random effects in the dynamic system equations. Nevertheless, the normality assumption may be unrealistic in some applications and hence the validity of inferences can be dubious. Therefore, we assume a multivariate skew-normal distribution for the error terms in the system equation at each step. Moreover, we introduce a moving average approach to elicit the hyperparameters. Both simulated data and real data are analyzed to illustrate the application of this methodology.