Pooling operators with the marginalization property

In this paper, we consider the problem of combining a number of opinions which have been expressed as probability measures P₁, …, P_n, over some space. It is shown that a pooling formula which has the marginalization property of McConway (1981) must be of the form T = Σⁿ_i=₁W_i P_i + (1 - Σⁿ_i =₁W_i)Q, where Q is an arbitrary measure and W₁, …, W_n ϵ [—1,1] are weights such that| Σ_J Σ _j w_j | ≤ 1 for every subset J of {1, …, n}. If, in addition, T is required to preserve the independence of arbitrary events A and B whenever these events are independent under each P_i, then either T = P_i for some 1 ≤ i ≤ n or T = Q, in which case Q takes values in {0, l}.     

微博意见领袖的新特征、存在的问题与对策思考

少数微博意见领袖缺少自律,有意或无意发布不实信息,放言立论偏激,放大现实中的社会矛盾和偏激心态,甚至出现极端化的政治倾向,"操控"舆论导向,让某些极端化的言论占上风,在一定程度上对我国意识形态安全、政治秩序产生影响,危及社会稳定,对此应高度警惕并积极应对。要建立与微博意见领袖的沟通机制,加强与微博意见领袖的沟通;推动党政机关和领导干部积极运用微博并成为意见领袖;加强主流媒体的新媒体运用能力,增强微博意见领袖的自律意识和底线意识;强化对微博意见领袖的管理。     

司法中群体观念的形成机制——司法如何应对民意的前提考量

探究司法如何应对民意,就必须加强对民意形成过程的认识和理解."群体极化"理论对网络时代的民意形成机制有较强的解释力.理论上,群体极化效应主要由两个机制形成:名誉机制和信息机制.中国因其国情也给群体极化效应提供了特殊要素,尤其是互联网时代的交流模式加剧了群体观念极化的频繁发生.本文以论述"群体极化效应"为主线,加入对关于民意形成机制的其他成果的简单综述,以期能够引起法学界对民意本身的重视.     

舆情概念辨析

＂舆情＂是一个被广泛应用,但又缺乏普遍共识的本土概念。本文对中国历史上舆情一词的缘起、运用、当前我国学术界对舆情概念的界定进行了梳理与评述,并在此基础上分析了中国＂舆情＂与西方＂public opinion＂概念的关系及区别。     

Is Sweden Being Torn Apart? Privatization and Old and New Patterns of Welfare State Support

This article examines the potential impact of institutional change on popular welfare support. The encompassing welfare state of Sweden provides an interesting case where the privatization of social service delivery has been widespread over the last decades. We use survey data from five rounds of the Swedish Welfare State Survey (1992, 1997, 2002, 2006 and 2010) in order to study how public preferences for the financing and organization of welfare services have changed over time. Based on a theory describing an ideal‐typical pattern of public support for an encompassing welfare model, we derive three types of public preferences: support for a pure state model, a pure market model and a mixed model (welfare services are funded by taxes but provided by private firms). We begin by tracking the development of these ideal‐typical attitude patterns between 1992 and 2010. We then investigate how preference patterns vary across municipalities displaying different degrees of privatization of social service delivery. Our results show that welfare support among Swedes over the last decades is better characterized as dynamic rather than stable. Swedes seem to take an overall more ideologically based position on the role of the welfare state over time. The share of respondents expressing such ideologically based preferences has increased from 54 per cent in 1992 to 78 per cent in 2010. This change is principally manifested in increased support for the state and mixed models. This trend seems to be parallel to the increasing share of private welfare service providers over the last decade. We also find a link between the municipal degree of privatization and support for our three ideal‐typical welfare models. Public support for a mixed welfare model and, to some extent, a market model, is comparatively stronger in municipalities where welfare services to a large extent are carried out by private actors. Conversely, data shows that public support for the traditional Swedish state model is more widespread in municipalities having a low degree of welfare services privatization. Lastly, we discuss some theoretical implications of our findings.     

基于主题关键词的网络舆情分析研究

采用手工设置和特征提取相结合的方法来确立舆情主题,依据设定的主题关键词采集舆情页面。根据抓取的舆情页面特点,解析并提取页面的标题、页面链接及链接上下文等元数据,根据页面元数据与舆情主题的相关度来筛选出舆情主题页面。通过实验发现,在不同的舆情发展阶段,舆情主题关键词的变化能反映出舆情的关注点变化,最终实现快速跟踪舆情发展的目的。     

隐性采访和隐私权的保护

在大众传媒的新闻报道中,隐性采访被越来越广泛地运用.隐性采访在舆论监督中具有一定的作用,它是显性采访的必要补充,是在特殊情况下进行舆论监督的必要手段.但是隐性采访不得侵犯隐私权,不得逾越一定的界限.     

土耳其与中国间的认知分析

中国与土耳其在政治与经济领域的外交关系近年来已有显著改善。然而,受到一系列因素的影响,双方民众间交往的亲善度特别低。这些因素包括“东突厥斯坦”问题、对往昔历史的考虑、贸易失衡问题以及双方媒体对这些问题所采取的负面和敌视的态度等。为了解决双方民众彼此间亲善度较低的问题,双方不仅应该借助制度化的对话与交流来加强联系,而且应该通过非正式的社会与文化方面的互动来增进彼此问的了解。本文旨在分析土耳其和中国民众的观念对两国间的双边关系的影响。通过观察当前中国与土耳其的关系,探讨两国公众的态度是否会成为国家间关系的主要阻力之一,是否会对决策者造成深刻的影响等问题。     

舆论形态的非线性分析

无论是静态舆论还是动态舆论都有诸多影响因素.在这些因素的共同作用下,舆论不可避免地呈现出滞后、指数式放大、非线性共振、振荡、饱和和折叠等非线性特征,与这些非线性特征相对应,舆论呈现出种种非线性形态.     

An analysis of public opinion toward undocumented immigration

Public opinion toward illegal migration to the United States varies considerably across different segments of the population, but little is known about why some individuals hold more liberal attitudes than others. Several hypotheses are scattered throughout the research literature, but they have not been brought together in one place and tested using a common data set. Nor have the limited tests been satisfactory from a methodological standpoint. Instead of using multiple regression, typically analysts have relied on cross-tabulations of the data. This paper tests five hypotheses about attitudes toward illegal immigration and undocumented migrants using public opinion data from southern California. Only weak support is found for a labor market competition hypothesis. There is firmer evidence for hypotheses relating to cultural affinity between respondents and undocumented migrants and to the role of education. Respondents' evaluations of tangible costs and benefits to themselves also influence their assessments of illegal immigration. Finally, the results of this analysis provide additional support for a symbolic politics model of opinion formation when the model is extended to the issue of undocumented migration to the United States.