网络舆情视域下高校思想政治教育工作实效性研究

互联网不断发展的今天,高校网络舆情有效充实思想政治教育工作内容,一定程度完善了思政教学方式.网络舆情视域下进行高校思政教育工作既有机遇又充满挑战.因此,研究网络舆情的内涵,正确认识网络舆情带给高校思政教育工作的机遇和挑战,创新思政教学思维,夯实大学生主体地位,壮大网络舆情教学队伍,健全网络舆情预警机制和综合监管能力,能...     

土耳其与中国间的认知分析

中国与土耳其在政治与经济领域的外交关系近年来已有显著改善。然而,受到一系列因素的影响,双方民众间交往的亲善度特别低。这些因素包括“东突厥斯坦”问题、对往昔历史的考虑、贸易失衡问题以及双方媒体对这些问题所采取的负面和敌视的态度等。为了解决双方民众彼此间亲善度较低的问题,双方不仅应该借助制度化的对话与交流来加强联系,而且应该通过非正式的社会与文化方面的互动来增进彼此问的了解。本文旨在分析土耳其和中国民众的观念对两国间的双边关系的影响。通过观察当前中国与土耳其的关系,探讨两国公众的态度是否会成为国家间关系的主要阻力之一,是否会对决策者造成深刻的影响等问题。     

Moral opinion polarization and the erosion of trust

Since Puntam's seminal work on declining levels of social capital, the question of how social trust is formed has reached unprecedented heights of critical enquiry. While most of the current research concentrates on ethnic diversity and income inequality as the main influences driving down generalized trust, we focus on opinion polarization as another potential impact factor on trust. In more detail, we investigate the extent to which polarization over morally charged issues such as homsexuality, abortion and euthanasia affects individuals' likelihood to trust others. We hypothesize that moral issues have a natural tendency to divide societies' opinions into opposing poles and, thus, to challenge social cohesion in modern civil societies. Based on hierarchical analyses of the fifth wave of the World Values Survey (WVS) — comprising a sample of 39 countries — our results reveal that individuals living in countries characterized by more opinion polarization tend to have less trust in other people.     

舆情传输的基层载体：社区民间组织

做好舆情信息工作,需要不断拓宽舆情报送渠道,丰富舆情传输载体。社区民间组织是为满足社区居民的不同需求而举办的,它们在日常工作中能够深入社会基层,了解不同居民的社会舆情信息,反映不同群体的观点意见。在为居民提供服务的过程中,社区民间组织的舆情汇集和传输功能逐渐显现,成为舆情传输的基层载体,是政府了解社情民意的重要渠道。     

空间定位抽样技术:民意调查中的新方法

在我国进行的民意调查中,研究者们无论采取哪种具体抽样方法,均需要以居委会提供的户口登记信息为抽样基础。随着我国流动人口数量的不断增大,依靠户籍信息抽样容易导致抽样覆盖范围存在偏差。在此背景下,空间定位抽样技术应运而生,该方法作为一种崭新的调查技术,使被调查对象的人口特征更具有代表性,对较为敏感的民意研究具有开创性地意义。本文阐述了传统抽样技术的弊端,介绍了空间定位抽样技术的兴起过程,并对该技术的具体实施步骤及难点进行了解析,最后提出了该法的两大适用条件。     

Homeless Affiliation,Location, and Sender Address in Return of Lost Letters

A field study used 1008 “lost letters” to test the hypotheses that the differences in returned responses would be attributable to the addressee (i.e., ending homelessnesscontrol or preventing it among youth, veterans, and lesbians) and especially to a socially deviant addressee, that cultural differences between distribution locations might influence returned responses of lost letters, and that sender address (i.e., urban, rural, control) would also influence returned responses. Both addressees’ affiliations and distribution location were associated with returned responses, with the lowest rates being for the Prevent Lesbian Homelessness Program affiliate overall and for the city of Pensacola, respectively. Antigay prejudice toward a deviant group may still be strong even when a helping act can be performed without intimate contact involving members of a deviant group. Neither distribution location nor the sender or return address conditions were associated with different returned responses. Further testing of the lost letter technique, as a measure of public response, may be warranted.     

社区居委会汇集传达社情民意的问题及对策探讨

社区居委会是城市的最基层组织，它应该是汇集社情民意的有效途径。然而在实际中社区居委会在汇集社情民意过程中还存在着障碍。本文将对形成障碍的因素进行分析，并提出克服障碍的对策建议。     

Bayesian Poisson models for the graphical combination of dependent expert information

A supra-Bayesian (SB) wants to combine the information from a group of k experts to produce her distribution of a probability θ. Each expert gives his counts of what he thinks are the numbers of successes and failures in a sequence of independent trials, each with probability θ of success. These counts, used as a surrogate for each expert's own individual probability assessment (together with his associated level of confidence in his estimate), allow the SB to build various plausible conjugate models. Such models reflect her beliefs about the reliability of different experts and take account of different possible patterns of overlap of information between them. Corresponding combination rules are then obtained and compared with other more established rules and their properties examined.     

Modelling Political Popularity: an Analysis of Long-range Dependence in Opinion Poll Series

A simple model of political popularity, as recorded by opinion polls of voting intentions, is proposed. We show that, as a consequence of aggregating heterogeneous poll responses under certain assumptions about the evolution of individual opinions, the time series of poll data should exhibit long memory characteristics. In an analysis of the monthly Gallup data on party support in the UK, we confirm that the series have long memory and further show them to be virtually pure 'fractional noise' processes. An explanation of the latter result is offered. We study the role of economic indicators in predicting swings in support, perform event analyses and use our estimates to generate post-sample forecasts to April 1997.