我国居民医疗需求影响因素的实证分析——有序probit模型的半参数估计

本文以个人潜在医疗需求为潜变量,以表示患病情况的有序离散变量为被解释变量,建立了有序probit回归模型,日的在于考察年龄、收入、性别、教育等主要个人人口特征和经济社会地位变量对医疗需求的影响.本文实证分析采用的是中国健康与营养调查2004年的微观调奁数据,采用半参数方法对模型进行了估计.估计结果显示:年龄、性别、婚姻状态、居住在农村、收入水平、教育水平对个人的医疗需求有不同程度的影响.实证分析结果对于预测我国医疗费用的发展趋势和缓和医疗服务中的不平等问题都有参考价值.     

Ordered multivariate extremes

Multivariate extreme value models and associated statistical methods are developed for vector observations whose components are subject to an order restriction. The approach extends the multivariate threshold methodology of Coles and Tawn, Joe and co-workers and Smith and co-workers. The results are illustrated by an analysis of extreme rainfalls of different durations, and by a study of the problem of linking a long series of daily rainfall extremes with a partially overlapping shorter series of hourly extremes.     

Classification into two normal populations with a common mean and unequal variances

The problem of classification into two univariate normal populations with a common mean is considered. Several classification rules are proposed based on efficient estimators of the common mean. Detailed numerical comparisons of probabilities of misclassifications using these rules have been carried out. It is shown that the classification rule based on the Graybill-Deal estimator of the common mean performs the best. Classification rules are also proposed for the case when variances are assumed to be ordered. Comparison of these rules with the rule based on the Graybill-Deal estimator has been done with respect to individual probabilities of misclassification.     

A nonparametric procedure for testing partially ranked data

In consumer preference studies, it is common to seek a complete ranking of a variety of, say N, alternatives or treatments. Unfortunately, as N increases, it becomes progressively more confusing and undesirable for respondents to rank all N alternatives simultaneously. Moreover, the investigators may only be interested in consumers’ top few choices. Therefore, it is desirable to accommodate the setting where each survey respondent ranks only her/his most preferred k (k?N) alternatives. In this paper, we propose a simple procedure to test the independence of N alternatives and the top-k ranks, such that the value of k can be predetermined before securing a set of partially ranked data or be at the discretion of the investigator in the presence of complete ranking data. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed test under root-n local alternatives is established. We demonstrate our procedure with two real data sets.     

Unmasking the Trend Sought by Jonckheere-Type Tests for Right-Censored Data

Medical and epidemiological studies often involve groups of subjects associated with increasing levels of exposure to a risk factor. Survival of the groups is expected to follow the same order as the level of exposure. Formal tests for this trend fall into the regression framework if one knows what function of exposure to use as a covariate. When unknown, a linear function of exposure level is often used. Jonckheere-type tests for trend have generated continued interest largely because they do not require specification of a covariate. This paper shows that the Jonckheere-type test statistics are special cases of a generalized linear rank statistic with time-dependent covariates which unfortunately depend on the initial group sizes and censoring distributions. Using asymptotic relative efficiency calculations, the Jonckheere tests are compared to standard linear rank tests based on a linear covariate over a spectrum of shapes for the true trend.     

Bootstrap tests for multivariate directional alternatives

Tests on multivariate means that are hypothesized to be in a specified direction have received attention from both theoretical and applied points of view. One of the most common procedures used to test this cone alternative is the likelihood ratio test (LRT) assuming a multivariate normal model for the data. However, the resulting test for an ordered alternative is biased in that the only usable critical values are bounds on the null distribution. The present paper provides empirical evidence that bootstrapping the null distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic results in a bootstrap test (BT) with comparable power properties without the additional burden of assuming multivariate normality. Additionally, the tests based on the LRT statistic can reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative even though the true means are far from the alternative region. The BT also has similar properties for normal and nonnormal data. This anomalous behavior is due to the formulation of the null hypothesis and a possible remedy is to reformulate the null to be the complement of the alternative hypothesis. We discuss properties of a BT for the modified set of hypotheses (MBT) based on a simulation study. The resulting test is conservative in general and in some specific cases has power estimates comparable to those for existing methods. The BT has higher sensitivity but relatively lower specificity, whereas the MBT has higher specificity but relatively lower sensitivity.     

Ordering pairwise comparison structures

Following an introduction to the merits of pairwise comparison methods, we present various ordering algorithms for complete binary preferential structures. These procedures generalize the well-known numbering algorithm to the intransitive case. A new form of independence of irrelevant alternatives is presented. Moreover, various other criteria and characterizations for these algorithms are presented. Aside from solving ranking problems and making explicit value criteria and structures of human preference, our algorithms are applicable to subjects such as task-sequencing and artificial intelligence projects.     

On the asymptotic distribution of a class of aligned rank order test statistics in randomized block designs

In the present investigation, the unconditional asymptotic distribution of a class of aligned rank order test statistics for randomized block designs is derived under the null hypothesis and for nearby alternatives, as the number of blocks tends to infinity. The proofs of these results are based on the asymptotic equivalence in quadratic mean between aligned observations and their ranks and thus are quite similar to the Hájek and SKidák (1967) approach.     

Some simple nonparametric methods to test for perfect ranking in ranked set sampling

A lot of research on ranked set sampling (RSS) is based on the assumption that the ranking is perfect. Hence, it is necessary to develop some tests that could be used to validate this assumption of perfect ranking. In this paper, we introduce some simple nonparametric methods for this purpose. We specifically define three test statistics, _Nk,_Sk$N_k,S_k$ and _Ak$A_k$, based on one-cycle RSS, which are all associated with the ordered ranked set sample (ORSS). We then derive the exact null distributions and exact power functions of all these tests. Next, by using the sum or the maximum of each statistic over all cycles, we propose six test statistics for the case of multi-cycle RSS. We compare the performance of all these tests with that of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test statistic proposed earlier by Stokes and Sager [1988. Characterization of a ranked-set sample with application to estimating distribution functions. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 83, 35–42] and display that all proposed test statistics are more powerful. Finally, we present an example to illustrate the test procedures discussed here.     

Life Satisfaction and Happiness in Turkey

This research aims to investigate life satisfaction and happiness in Turkey. It extends the previous researches on subjective well-being (SWB) for Turkey by considering both happiness and life satisfaction. The previous researches for Turkey are local studies, and their findings cannot be generalized to the population of Turkish society. Given these facts, the factors that shape individual happiness and life satisfaction amongst Turkish people are determined using a representative survey of sociocultural and political change, World Values Survey (WVS). Some results obtained in this study are similar to typical findings such as a negative age effect, positive influences of income and health status, and a negative effect of unemployment. Contrary to the expectations, middle education has a negative direct effect on life satisfaction among females, and the upper education level is insignificant in the life satisfaction model. By comparing the correlates of happiness and life satisfaction across different years, this research aims to provide insights for policy makers and professionals to improve the perceived lives of Turkish people.