A Framework for Analyzing the Economic Tradeoffs Between Urban Commerce and Security Against Terrorism

This article presents a framework for economic consequence analysis of terrorism countermeasures. It specifies major categories of direct and indirect costs, benefits, spillover effects, and transfer payments that must be estimated in a comprehensive assessment. It develops a spreadsheet tool for data collection, storage, and refinement, as well as estimation of the various components of the necessary economic accounts. It also illustrates the usefulness of the framework in the first assessment of the tradeoffs between enhanced security and changes in commercial activity in an urban area, with explicit attention to the role of spillover effects. The article also contributes a practical user interface to the model for emergency managers.     

A Comparative Pharmacokinetic Estimate of Mercury in U.S. Infants Following Yearly Exposures to Inactivated Influenza Vaccines Containing Thimerosal

The use of thimerosal preservative in childhood vaccines has been largely eliminated over the past decade in the United States because vaccines have been reformulated in single‐dose vials that do not require preservative. An exception is the inactivated influenza vaccines, which are formulated in both multidose vials requiring preservative and preservative‐free single‐dose vials. As part of an ongoing evaluation by USFDA of the safety of biologics throughout their lifecycle, the infant body burden of mercury following scheduled exposures to thimerosal preservative in inactivated influenza vaccines in the United States was estimated and compared to the infant body burden of mercury following daily exposures to dietary methylmercury at the reference dose established by the USEPA. Body burdens were estimated using kinetic parameters derived from experiments conducted in infant monkeys that were exposed episodically to thimerosal or MeHg at identical doses. We found that the body burden of mercury (AUC) in infants (including low birth weight) over the first 4.5 years of life following yearly exposures to thimerosal was two orders of magnitude lower than that estimated for exposures to the lowest regulatory threshold for MeHg over the same time period. In addition, peak body burdens of mercury following episodic exposures to thimerosal in this worst‐case analysis did not exceed the corresponding safe body burden of mercury from methylmercury at any time, even for low‐birth‐weight infants. Our pharmacokinetic analysis supports the acknowledged safety of thimerosal when used as a preservative at current levels in certain multidose infant vaccines in the United States.     

开放经济下OFDI对产业结构升级效应及传导路径

开放经济下对外直接投资(OFDI)已成为我国融入世界经济的主要途径,在优化产业结构、推进经济转型等方面扮演着重要角色。根据OFDI与产业结构升级及传导路径的互动机理分析,在对安徽省OFDI投资概况和产业结构现状进行分析的基础上,选取2003—2017年相关数据为样本构建VAR模型,运用ADF检验、脉冲响应函数等方法从产业结构总水平角度,实证分析得出短期内安徽省OFDI所能带来的产业结构升级效应并不显著的结论。进而从具体传导路径角度,采用主成分分析法,从10个变量中提取主成分构建VAR模型,运用脉冲响应等方法实证分析得出安徽省OFDI可通过贸易、省内投资、就业和技术路径来促进产业结构升级。为此,安徽省应扩大OFDI规模,提升OFDI质量和效益;增强企业竞争实力和科技创新能力,优化对外投资结构;发挥政府宏观调控和政策引导作用,加大对企业的扶持力度。     

女性香水容器的造型设计与时代审美特点的关系

女性香水容器造型设计的历史与时代审美相一致,其造型形式随着时代发展表现出不同的类型,这些类型的变化显示了其历史的演进与各个时代审美特点之间的密切关系。     

澜湄命运共同体建设的意义、动因和路径选择

构建澜湄国家命运共同体是中国周边外交和亚洲命运共同体构想的具体实践，将助力东盟共同体建设，促进次区域稳定和繁荣。本文通过对澜湄命运共同体建设的意义、动因和影响因素分析，提出了澜湄命运共同体建设的路径选择。     

Modeling the Adenoma and Serrated Pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA)

Several colorectal cancer (CRC) screening models have been developed describing the progression of adenomas to CRC. Currently, there is increasing evidence that serrated lesions can also develop into CRC. It is not clear whether screening tests have the same test characteristics for serrated lesions as for adenomas, but lower sensitivities have been suggested. Models that ignore this type of colorectal lesions may provide overly optimistic predictions of the screen‐induced reduction in CRC incidence. To address this issue, we have developed the Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA) model that includes the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and the serrated pathway to CRC as well as characteristics of colorectal lesions. The model structure and the calibration procedure are described in detail. Calibration resulted in 19 parameter sets for the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and 13 for the serrated pathway that match the age‐ and sex‐specific adenoma and serrated lesion prevalence in the COlonoscopy versus COlonography Screening (COCOS) trial, Dutch CRC incidence and mortality rates, and a number of other intermediate outcomes concerning characteristics of colorectal lesions. As an example, we simulated outcomes for a biennial fecal immunochemical test screening program and a hypothetical one‐time colonoscopy screening program. Inclusion of the serrated pathway influenced the predicted effectiveness of screening when serrated lesions are associated with lower screening test sensitivity or when they are not removed. To our knowledge, this is the first model that explicitly includes the serrated pathway and characteristics of colorectal lesions. It is suitable for the evaluation of the (cost)effectiveness of potential screening strategies for CRC.     

“健康中国”背景下全民健身与全民健康融合研究

结合我国实际，从全民健身和全民健康的科学理念、科学研究、人才培养、体医融合、设施建设、产业发展、“互联网+”运用等措施，实现全民健身和全民健康的深度融合，保障政府工作落地生根，促进全民健康。     

以意识形态安全为核心加强高校国防教育

随着习近平总书记提出总体国家安全观，关于国家安全的研究不断丰富和扩大。文化安全作为国家安全的重要保障，意识形态领域的安全又是文化安全的根本要求，高校学生的思维易受外界影响，需要重点教育引导。高校国防教育活动作为意识形态安全教育的主要形式，对于加强国家文化安全有着重要作用。为了切实加强社会主义意识形态安全教育，为国家发展做好文化安全保障，高校国防教育应该从国家安全的高度指导教学，改革教育的内容和方式。     

水驱砂岩油藏孔喉结构变化的三维网络模拟

以长期水驱实验为基础，建立了等效水驱砂岩储层孔喉结构变化的三维网络模拟模型，结合三维微粒运移机制和有限差分求解方法，得到了长期水驱砂岩油藏孔喉结构变化规律：（1） 冲刷后喉道半径呈增加趋势，喉道半径变化范围变大，极小喉道半径呈微弱减小趋势；（2） 孔隙网络模型中冲刷半径扩大的孔道分布形式与原始孔隙网络结构密切相关，并非所有的大孔道都串联起来贯穿岩芯孔隙网络的两个端面，但入口端和出口端部分大孔道相互连通，形成端面上的大孔道网络群。网络模拟注水结果结合采油井测试，可为注水剖面的调整提供更加可靠的依据。     

与国际行政法的产生有关的几个基本问题——基于全球化、全球治理的视角

全球治理的提出源于全球化的推动,而全球治理的提出及实践则使国际行政法的产生、形成成为可能。具体而言,全球公民社会的兴起与国际非政府组织的发展是国际行政法产生的两个现实驱动因素。国际行政法的产生路径可总结为"自下而上"和"自上而下"的路径。国际行政法具有区别于国内行政法的若干明显特征,国际层面相比国内层面的很多特殊性也使得国际行政法的体系化发展面临诸多挑战。这些问题虽然不能忽视,但它们也并非不可克服。虽然国际行政法不如国内行政法成熟,但是如能改进合法性,便能够将超国家机构的全球治理职能发挥得更好。全球治理语境下国际行政法体系的产生、形成是一种历史的必然趋势。