全文获取类型
收费全文 | 1109篇 |
免费 | 74篇 |
国内免费 | 17篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 527篇 |
民族学 | 1篇 |
人口学 | 7篇 |
丛书文集 | 26篇 |
理论方法论 | 87篇 |
综合类 | 281篇 |
社会学 | 55篇 |
统计学 | 216篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 2篇 |
2023年 | 13篇 |
2022年 | 24篇 |
2021年 | 17篇 |
2020年 | 44篇 |
2019年 | 32篇 |
2018年 | 38篇 |
2017年 | 45篇 |
2016年 | 46篇 |
2015年 | 40篇 |
2014年 | 50篇 |
2013年 | 137篇 |
2012年 | 63篇 |
2011年 | 57篇 |
2010年 | 47篇 |
2009年 | 42篇 |
2008年 | 56篇 |
2007年 | 46篇 |
2006年 | 36篇 |
2005年 | 55篇 |
2004年 | 51篇 |
2003年 | 28篇 |
2002年 | 31篇 |
2001年 | 20篇 |
2000年 | 20篇 |
1999年 | 23篇 |
1998年 | 13篇 |
1997年 | 16篇 |
1996年 | 15篇 |
1995年 | 10篇 |
1994年 | 18篇 |
1993年 | 10篇 |
1992年 | 11篇 |
1991年 | 5篇 |
1990年 | 6篇 |
1989年 | 8篇 |
1988年 | 7篇 |
1987年 | 6篇 |
1986年 | 2篇 |
1985年 | 2篇 |
1984年 | 2篇 |
1981年 | 6篇 |
排序方式: 共有1200条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
11.
Charles F. Manski 《Theory and Decision》1988,25(1):79-104
This paper studies two models of rational behavior under uncertainty whose predictions are invariant under ordinal transformations of utility. The quantile utility model assumes that the agent maximizes some quantile of the distribution of utility. The utility mass model assumes maximization of the probability of obtaining an outcome whose utility is higher than some fixed critical value. Both models satisfy weak stochastic dominance. Lexicographic refinements satisfy strong dominance.The study of these utility models suggests a significant generalization of traditional ideas of riskiness and risk preference. We define one action to be riskier than another if the utility distribution of the latter crosses that of the former from below. The single crossing property is equivalent to a minmax spread of a random variable. With relative risk defined by the single crossing criterion, the risk preference of a quantile utility maximizer increases with the utility distribution quantile that he maximizes. The risk preference of a utility mass maximizer increases with his critical utility value. 相似文献
12.
在考虑产品质量差异与需求不确定双因素影响的基础上,通过构建垂直Nash定价与库存联合博弈模型,研究当线上与线下双渠道销售特定异质产品时,供应链成员如何根据不同的产品类型选择最优分销策略以实现双渠道供应链的共赢。研究结果表明:对于质量差异化低且需求不确定性低的产品类型,供应链成员的共赢分销策略是在线下渠道销售低质量产品并在线上渠道销售高质量产品;对于质量差异化低且需求不确定性高的产品类型,共赢分销策略是在线下销售高质量产品并在线上销售低质量产品;当制造商采用“做坏品”质量差异化策略时,产品类型和分销策略之间的最佳匹配依然保持稳健。 相似文献
13.
Robert Aslett Robert J. Buck Steven G. Duvall Jerome Sacks & William J. Welch 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics》1998,47(1):31-48
In electrical engineering, circuit designs are now often optimized via circuit simulation computer models. Typically, many response variables characterize the circuit's performance. Each response is a function of many input variables, including factors that can be set in the engineering design and noise factors representing manufacturing conditions. We describe a modelling approach which is appropriate for the simulator's deterministic input–output relationships. Non-linearities and interactions are identified without explicit assumptions about the functional form. These models lead to predictors to guide the reduction of the ranges of the designable factors in a sequence of experiments. Ultimately, the predictors are used to optimize the engineering design. We also show how a visualization of the fitted relationships facilitates an understanding of the engineering trade-offs between responses. The example used to demonstrate these methods, the design of a buffer circuit, has multiple targets for the responses, representing different trade-offs between the key performance measures. 相似文献
14.
Economics of Radiation Protection: Equity Considerations 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Schneider Thierry Schieber Caroline Eeckhoudt Louis Gollier Christian 《Theory and Decision》1997,43(3):241-251
In order to implement cost-benefit analysis of protective actions to reduce radiological exposures, one needs to attribute a monetary value to the avoided exposure. Recently, the International Commission on Radiological Protection has stressed the need to take into consideration not only the collective exposure to ionising radiation but also its dispersion in the population. In this paper, by using some well known and some recent results in the economics of uncertainty, we discuss how to integrate these recommendations in the valuation of the benefit of protection. 相似文献
15.
We study, from the standpoint of coherence, comparative probabilities on an arbitrary familyE of conditional events. Given a binary relation ·, coherence conditions on · are related to de Finetti's coherent betting system: we consider their connections to the usual properties of comparative probability and to the possibility of numerical representations of ·. In this context, the numerical reference frame is that of de Finetti's coherent subjective conditional probability, which is not introduced (as in Kolmogoroff's approach) through a ratio between probability measures.Another relevant feature of our approach is that the family & need not have any particular algebraic structure, so that the ordering can be initially given for a few conditional events of interest and then possibly extended by a step-by-step procedure, preserving coherence. 相似文献
16.
On the Effect of Probability Distributions of Input Variables in Public Health Risk Assessment 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A central part of probabilistic public health risk assessment is the selection of probability distributions for the uncertain input variables. In this paper, we apply the first-order reliability method (FORM)(1–3) as a probabilistic tool to assess the effect of probability distributions of the input random variables on the probability that risk exceeds a threshold level (termed the probability of failure) and on the relevant probabilistic sensitivities. The analysis was applied to a case study given by Thompson et al. (4) on cancer risk caused by the ingestion of benzene contaminated soil. Normal, lognormal, and uniform distributions were used in the analysis. The results show that the selection of a probability distribution function for the uncertain variables in this case study had a moderate impact on the probability that values would fall above a given threshold risk when the threshold risk is at the 50th percentile of the original distribution given by Thompson et al. (4) The impact was much greater when the threshold risk level was at the 95th percentile. The impact on uncertainty sensitivity, however, showed a reversed trend, where the impact was more appreciable for the 50th percentile of the original distribution of risk given by Thompson et al. 4 than for the 95th percentile. Nevertheless, the choice of distribution shape did not alter the order of probabilistic sensitivity of the basic uncertain variables. 相似文献
17.
18.
19.
20.
Tolerance of Uncertainty: Links to Happenstance,Career Decision Self‐Efficacy,and Career Satisfaction
下载免费PDF全文
![点击此处可从《The Career development quarterly》网站下载免费的PDF全文](/ch/ext_images/free.gif)
Boyoung Kim Eunjeong Rhee Gyuyoung Ha Joonyoung Yang Sang Min Lee 《The Career development quarterly》2016,64(2):140-152
This study investigated the extent to which tolerance of uncertainty affects the relationship between happenstance skills and career satisfaction via career decision self‐efficacy. Moderated mediation analysis was conducted on data collected from 321 graduates (175 men, 146 women) of Korean universities making the school‐to‐work transition. Results showed that career decision self‐efficacy fully mediated the relationship between happenstance skills and career satisfaction. Furthermore, the moderation effect of tolerance of uncertainty had a significant impact on the relationship between happenstance skills and career decision self‐efficacy. Tolerance of uncertainty should be considered an important variable in happenstance career theory and intervention. Unplanned influences should also be considered important factors in the career decision‐making process. 相似文献