Harrison–Stevens Forecasting and the Multiprocess Dynamic Linear Model

This is an expository article. The Harrison–Stevens forecasting algorithm using the multiprocess dynamic linear model is a robust method for forecasting in a nonstationary time series. The purpose of this article is to help statisticians become familiar with the method.     

Planning step-stress test plans under Type-I censoring for the log-location-scale case

In this paper, we consider a k-level step-stress accelerated life-testing (ALT) experiment with unequal duration steps τ=(τ₁, …, τ _k ). Censoring is allowed only at the change-stress point in the final stage. A general log-location-scale lifetime distribution with mean life which is a linear function of stress, along with a cumulative exposure model, is considered as the working model. Under this model, the determination of the optimal choice of τ for both Weibull and lognormal distributions are addressed using the variance–optimality criterion. Numerical results show that for a general log-location-scale distributions, the optimal k-step-stress ALT model with unequal duration steps reduces just to a 2-level step-stress ALT model.     

Mixture inverse Gaussian distributions and its transformations,moments and applications

Skewed models are important and necessary when parametric analyses are carried out on data. Mixture distributions produce widely flexible models with good statistical and probabilistic properties, and the mixture inverse Gaussian (MIG) model is one of those. Transformations of the MIG model also create new parametric distributions, which are useful in diverse situations. The aim of this paper is to discuss several aspects of the MIG distribution useful for modelling positive data. We specifically discuss transformations, the derivation of moments, fitting of models, and a shape analysis of the transformations. Finally, real examples from engineering, environment, insurance, and toxicology are presented for illustrating some of the results developed here. Three of the four data sets, which have arisen from the consulting work of the authors, are new and have not been previously analysed. All these examples display that the empirical fit of the MIG distribution to the data is very good.     

A generalization for two-sided power distributions and adjusted method of moments

A new rich class of generalized two-sided power (TSP) distributions, where their density functions are expressed in terms of the Gauss hypergeometric functions, is introduced and studied. In this class, the symmetric distributions are supported by finite intervals and have normal shape densities. Our study on TSP distributions also leads us to a new class of discrete distributions on {0, 1, …, k}. In addition, a new numerical method for parameter estimation using moments is given.     

Nonparametric regression estimation of conditional tails: the random covariate case

We present families of nonparametric estimators for the conditional tail index of a Pareto-type distribution in the presence of random covariates. These families are constructed from locally weighted sums of power transformations of excesses over a high threshold. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are derived under some assumptions on the conditional response distribution, the weight function and the density function of the covariates. We also introduce bias-corrected versions of the estimators for the conditional tail index, and propose in this context a consistent estimator for the second-order tail parameter. The finite sample performance of some specific examples from our classes of estimators is illustrated with a small simulation experiment.     

Bivariate Kumaraswamy distribution: properties and a new method to generate bivariate classes

In this paper, we introduce a bivariate Kumaraswamy (BVK) distribution whose marginals are Kumaraswamy distributions. The cumulative distribution function of this bivariate model has absolutely continuous and singular parts. Representations for the cumulative and density functions are presented and properties such as marginal and conditional distributions, product moments and conditional moments are obtained. We show that the BVK model can be obtained from the Marshall and Olkin survival copula and obtain a tail dependence measure. The estimation of the parameters by maximum likelihood is discussed and the Fisher information matrix is determined. We propose an EM algorithm to estimate the parameters. Some simulations are presented to verify the performance of the direct maximum-likelihood estimation and the proposed EM algorithm. We also present a method to generate bivariate distributions from our proposed BVK distribution. Furthermore, we introduce a BVK distribution which has only an absolutely continuous part and discuss some of its properties. Finally, a real data set is analysed for illustrative purposes.     

Diagnostics on nonlinear model with scale mixtures of skew-normal and first-order autoregressive errors

In this work, we develop some diagnostics for nonlinear regression model with scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) and first-order autoregressive errors. The SMSN distribution class covers symmetric as well as asymmetric and heavy-tailed distributions, which offers a more flexible framework for modelling. Maximum-likelihood (ML) estimates are computed via an expectation–maximization-type algorithm. Local influence diagnostics and score test for the correlation are also derived. The performances of the ML estimates and the test statistic are investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, a real data set is used to illustrate our diagnostic methods.     

More on progressively Type‐II censored order statistics for multivariate observations

In this paper, we consider some results on distribution theory of multivariate progressively Type‐II censored order statistics. We also establish some characterizations of Freund's bivariate exponential distribution based on the lack of memory property.     

Bayesian Inference for the Jump-Diffusion Model with M Jumps

In this article, we propose a new class of models—jump-diffusion models with M jumps (JD(M)J). These structures generalize the discretized arithmetic Brownian motion (for logarithmic rates of return) and the Bernoulli jump-diffusion model. The aim of this article is to present Bayesian tools for estimation and comparison of JD(M)J models. Presented methodology is illustrated with two empirical studies, employing both simulated and real-world data (the S&P100 Index).