惠州凹陷典型油气聚集带成藏模式

基于地质、地震、地化等资料,采用流体包裹体分析测试技术,研究惠州凹陷典型油气聚集带的油气富集规律,建立相应的成藏模式。结果表明,文昌组烃源岩是研究区油气的主要贡献者,恩平组烃源岩之油源供给仅限于凹陷内局部区域,油气沿断层短距离垂向运移或沿复合输导体系垂向—侧向长距离运移,经历了两次大规模成藏,据此将惠西—流花油气聚集带的油气成藏模式划分为4 种类型：单源—近距离—垂向运移—多期成藏模式、混源—近距离—垂向运移—多期成藏模式、混源—近距离—垂向—侧向运移—多期成藏模式、单源—远距离—垂向—侧向运移—一期成藏模式;惠陆油气聚集带油气成藏模式为单源—近距离—垂向运移—多期幕式快速成藏模式。     

Effects of correlated covariates on the asymptotic efficiency of matching and inverse probability weighting estimators for causal inference

In observational studies, the overall aim when fitting a model for the propensity score is to reduce bias for an estimator of the causal effect. To make the assumption of an unconfounded treatment plausible researchers might include many, possibly correlated, covariates in the propensity score model. In this paper, we study how the asymptotic efficiency of matching and inverse probability weighting estimators for average causal effects change when the covariates are correlated. We investigate the case with multivariate normal covariates, a logistic model for the propensity score and linear models for the potential outcomes and show results under different model assumptions. We show that the correlation can both increase and decrease the large sample variances of the estimators, and that the correlation affects the asymptotic efficiency of the estimators differently, both with regard to direction and magnitude. Moreover, the strength of the confounding towards the outcome and the treatment plays an important role.     

A Bayesian estimate of the concordance correlation coefficient with skewed data

Concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) is one of the most popular scaled indices used to evaluate agreement. Most commonly, it is used under the assumption that data is normally distributed. This assumption, however, does not apply to skewed data sets. While methods for the estimation of the CCC of skewed data sets have been introduced and studied, the Bayesian approach and its comparison with the previous methods has been lacking. In this study, we propose a Bayesian method for the estimation of the CCC of skewed data sets and compare it with the best method previously investigated. The proposed method has certain advantages. It tends to outperform the best method studied before when the variation of the data is mainly from the random subject effect instead of error. Furthermore, it allows for greater flexibility in application by enabling incorporation of missing data, confounding covariates, and replications, which was not considered previously. The superiority of this new approach is demonstrated using simulation as well as real‐life biomarker data sets used in an electroencephalography clinical study. The implementation of the Bayesian method is accessible through the Comprehensive R Archive Network. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Notes on estimation of the intraclass correlation under the AB/BA crossover trial

Under the AB/BA crossover trial, we focus our attention on estimation of the intraclass correlation in normal data. We develop both point and interval estimators in closed form for the intraclass correlation. We employ Monte Carlo simulation to study the performance of these estimators in a variety of situations. We note that the estimators developed here for the intraclass correlation remain valid even when there are possibly unexpected carry-over effects.     

A Bivariate Distribution Family with Specified Correlation Coefficient and Given Marginals

For given continuous distribution functions F(x) and G(y) and a Pearson correlation coefficient ρ, an algorithm is provided to construct a sequence of continuous bivariate distributions with marginals equal to F(x) and G(y) and the corresponding correlation coefficient converges to ρ. The algorithm can be easily implemented using S-Plus or R. Applications are given to generate bivariate random variables with marginals including Gamma, Beta, Weibull, and uniform distributions.     

基于共同持有资产的银行间接关联网络研究

金融市场是一个复杂系统,银行之间不仅有直接的拆借关系,还能够通过投资市场建立间接关联。本文分析了资产内生相关性、资产降价出售以及银行投资行为等因素对银行间接关联程度的影响,基于这些因素通过持有共同资产构建银行系统的间接关联,并以此为基础通过平面极大过滤图方法生成银行间接关联网络,论证了该网络中的系统重要性银行,并通过对该网络结构特征的分析,发现间接关联网络具有小世界和无标度等特征,这些特征与银行通过直接拆借形成的网络相似。本文对于银行间接关联网络的研究不仅能够更加清晰地了解银行之间的关系,也为银行系统性风险的监管提供了新的视角。     

湖南经济波动实证研究

湖南经济波动实证研究以经济增长率波动为主要考察对象 ,所用考察指标是 GDP增长率。按照“谷-谷”法划分 ,195 3～ 1999年的 47年中 ,湖南经济增长率的波动共呈现出 12个周期。纵向上 ,改革前后湖南经济波动的状态特征悬殊 ,波动是由剧烈转向平缓。横向上 ,湖南经济波动幅度大于全国经济波动。未来湖南经济波动的理想走势是 :纵向上 ,保持波动由剧烈转向平缓的趋势 ,进一步缓和波动程度 ,努力实现微波化 ;横向上 ,力争湖南经济波动幅度低于全国水平     

交通运输与民族地区经济增长的相关性分析——以临夏为例

为寻求交通运输与民族地区经济增长之间的相关性,本文以甘肃省临夏回族自治州为例,运用相关分析和因果检验发现,货运需求与民族地区经济增长之间存在强相关性,而客运需求与民族地区经济增长之间不存在显著的因果关系。     

购物中心的商户关系研究

本文基于共生理论尝试性的对购物中心内商户间的相互关系进行了研究,论文选取了竞争、寄生与互惠这三种主要关系进行分析,提出以服饰类和珠宝类商户为代表的同质商户存在着同业聚集的经济效应,这时的同业竞争相对经济效应而言属于次要地位;主力店的选择和自身所处的位置决定了寄生关系的存在与作用大小,一部分非主力店能够凭借自身的吸引力获得客流;在异质商户之间,消耗性生活便利品与超市具有高度互补性,另外百货店与衣服鞋类专卖店也具有高互补性;但是消耗性生活用品与百货店,专卖店与超市的互补性都较低。     

新颖的Chirp通信系统同步方法

提出的同步方法把Chirp信号扫频频率范围和扫频时间都扩展了一倍的本地信号与接收信号相乘,并利用乘积信号中主要频率分量的强度来构成反馈环路,再通过该反馈环路来对输入信号的延迟进行跟踪和锁定。分析和仿真结果表明,该方法可以完成系统的时间同步任务。该方法的核心在于把本地参考信号的扫频频率范围和扫频时间进行了扩展,从而排除了常用方法在宽带、超宽带情况下受信道影响的问题,同时由于避免了使用滑动相关器,也因此降低了复杂度。