The Tale of Cochran's Rule: My Contingency Table has so Many Expected Values Smaller than 5, What Am I to Do?

In an informal way, some dilemmas in connection with hypothesis testing in contingency tables are discussed. The body of the article concerns the numerical evaluation of Cochran's Rule about the minimum expected value in r × c contingency tables with fixed margins when testing independence with Pearson's X² statistic using the χ² distribution.     

Phase type stress–strength models with reliability applications

The stress–strength model has attracted a great deal of attention in reliability analysis, and it has been studied under various modeling assumptions. In this article, the stress–strength reliability is studied for both single unit and multicomponent systems when stress and strength distributions are of phase type. Phase-type distributions, besides their analytical tractability, are a versatile tool for modeling a wide range of real life systems/processes. In particular, matrix-based expressions are obtained for the stress–strength reliability, and mean residual strength for an operating system. The results are illustrated for Erlang-type stress–strength distributions for a single unit system and a system having a general coherent structure. An example on the comparison of two multi-state units in stress–strength ordering is also presented.     

Preservation of generalized ageing classes on the residual life at random time

In this paper, we provide some new preservation properties of generalized ageing classes (s-IFR) on the residual life at random time, where s is a nonnegative integer. We also obtain bounds of the residual life at exponential random time. Results are expected to be useful in the reliability, queue theory and actuarial science.     

关于中国全要素生产率测度的研究——基于一阶差分对数模型和有效资本存量的再测算

本文对以往我国全要素生产率测度中存在的问题做了较为系统的分析,试图总结一套科学且具有可操作性的测度方法。本文在区分实际资本存量和有效资本存量的基础上,根据我国资本存量估算数据,采用一阶差分对数模型和有关经济计量学方法,估计资本与劳动的产出弹性,避免了可能出现的“伪回归”“序列相关”“多重共线性”和“异方差”等问题,从而保证所测度的产出弹性估计值既符合经济理论分析又能通过经济计量学检验。本文还阐述了全要素生产率与广义技术进步这两个指标 的联系与区别,并通过实证分析揭示了不同时期两项指标产生差异的原因。实证分析结果表明,改革开放以来全要素生产率提高对促进我国经济增长发挥了重要作用。     

企业伦理气候、组织承诺与组织公民行为的关系——以温州民营企业为例

企业社会责任等方面存在的问题是造成温州民营企业“民工荒”的重要原因。通过问卷调查,发现员工对企业伦理气候中的法规导向最为认可且看法比较一致,对组织承诺中的情感承诺最为认可且对道德承诺的看法相对一致,对组织公民行为中的组织公益最为认可且看法比较一致。员工对组织承诺、组织公民行为的主张是正向积极的,未发现企业伦理气候、组织承诺对组织公民行为有强烈的正向影响。提出温州民营企业摆脱困境的思路：重视企业伦理气候建设,形成正确的企业文化,增强员工的向心力;强化员工的组织承诺;鼓励员工的组织公民行为。     

国企产权改革中的人力资本产权

本文以人力资本理论为基础,结合中国国有企业中企业家人力资本的现状,提出了国有企业产权改革中企业家人力资本定价指标体系和内在价值的组成,为中国企业家的价值实现探索道路。     

A note on the residual median process

We study the residual median process, defined as the median of those observations which are greater than a number t. Using appropriate limit theorems, it is shown that the stochastic process converges in law to a Gaussian process defined in terms of a Brownian bridge.     

Description of a subfamily of the discrete pearson system as generalized-binomial distributions

In this paper we prove that a subfamily of distributions of the discrete Pearson, system, containing the Pólya distribution without replacement and hence the hypergeometric distribution, can be described as generalized-binomial distributions, i.e., the distribution of the number of successes which occur in independent trials. It is also shown that the probability of success will necessarily be different in each trial, with the exception of deterministic ones. As a consequence, all the properties of the generalized-binomial distribution will apply to this subfamily. Thus, applications to hypothesis testing and confidence intervals in the Pólya distribution are considered.     

Bayesian Estimation and Prediction for the Beta-Binomial Model

The beta-binomial distribution, which is generated by a simple mixture model, has been widely applied in the social, physical, and health sciences. Problems of estimation, inference, and prediction have been addressed in the past, but not in a Bayesian framework. This article develops Bayesian procedures for the beta-binomial model and, using a suitable reparameterization, establishes a conjugate-type property for a beta family of priors. The transformed parameters have interesting interpretations, especially in marketing applications, and are likely to be more stable. More specifically, one of these parameters is the market share and the other is a measure of the heterogeneity of the customer population. Analytical results are developed for the posterior and prediction quantities, although the numerical evaluation is not trivial. Since the posterior moments are more easily calculated, we also propose the use of posterior approximation using the Pearson system. A particular case (when there are two trials), which occurs in taste testing, brand choice, media exposure, and some epidemiological applications, is analyzed in detail. Simulated and real data are used to demonstrate the feasibility of the calculations. The simulation results effectively demonstrate the superiority of Bayesian estimators, particularly in small samples, even with uniform (“non-informed”) priors. Naturally, “informed” priors can give even better results. The real data on television viewing behavior are used to illustrate the prediction results. In our analysis, several problems with the maximum likelihood estimators are encountered. The superior properties and performance of the Bayesian estimators and the excellent approximation results are strong indications that our results will be potentially of high value in small sample applications of the beta-binomial and in cases in which significant prior information exists.     

Using the Residual White Noise Autoregressive Order Determination Criterion to Identify Unit Roots in Arima Models

We present a simplified form of a univariate identification approach for time series models based on the residual white noise autoregressive order determination criterion and linear estimation methods. We also show how the procedure can be used to identify the degree of differencing necessary to induce stationarity in data. The performance of this approach is also contrasted with Portmanteau tests for detection of white noise residuals and with Dickey-Fuller and Bayesian procedures for detection of unit roots. Simulated and economic data are used to demonstrate the capabilities of the modified approach.