Nonconglomerative coherent conditional probabilities in statistical inference

Noteworthy connections among conglomerability, countable additivity and coherence are discussed in detail, reaching the conclusion that nonconglomerable conditional probabilities must not be doomed and play a significant role in statistical inference. Extended and updated version of a contributed paper presented at the International Conference on “Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in knowledge-based systems”, IPMU 2004, Perugia, Italy.     

An alternative estimator for multiple characteristics in PPS sampling

The problem considered relates to large-scale sample surveys. A new estimator of population total for the characteristics that are poorly correlated with the selection probabilities has been developed for the PPSWR sampling scheme. The relative efficiency of the proposed estimator has been studied under a super-population model. A numerical investigation into the performance of the estimator has also been made.     

Some preservation results of NBUC aging property with applications

This paper develops a new characterization of NBUC aging property, and investigates its preservation properties both under monotonic anti-star-shaped transformations and under the non-homogeneous Poisson shock models.     

基于多媒体、网络技术的高职英语教学

伴随全球经济的发展,国内外市场对优秀高职院校毕业生需求的不断增加,我国的高职教学受到越来越多的关注。作为高职教育重要组成部分之一的高职英语自然也成为关注的焦点。通过论述多媒体、网络技术在高职英语教学中发挥的作用、特点和带来的挑战且结合实际的教学时间证明:运用多媒体、网络技术进行教学为高职英语教学带来了新变化,收到良好效果,符合信息时代高职英语教学的需要。     

岳阳方言的语气词

通过对岳阳方言的语气词作全面深入的探讨,得出的结论是,岳阳方言中有旧个语气词。文章对它们分布和所表语气从语法和语用方面进行了逐一的描写,对它们可能构成的连用作出了穷尽性的分析,在语气词的形成和衍变上提出了一些看法,对语气词的分类,也作了一些有益的尝试。     

E-Capacities and the Ellsberg Paradox

Ellsberg's (1961) famous paradox shows that decision-makers give events with known probabilities a higher weight in their outcome evaluation. In the same article, Ellsberg suggests a preference representation which has intuitive appeal but lacks an axiomatic foundation. Schmeidler (1989) and Gilboa (1987) provide an axiomatisation for expected utility with non-additive probabilities. This paper introduces E-capacities as a representation of beliefs which incorporates objective information about the probability of events. It can be shown that the Choquet integral of an E-capacity is the Ellsberg representation. The paper further explores properties of this representation of beliefs and provides an axiomatisation for them.     

The likelihood ratio test for homogeneity in finite mixture models

The authors study the asymptotic behaviour of the likelihood ratio statistic for testing homogeneity in the finite mixture models of a general parametric distribution family. They prove that the limiting distribution of this statistic is the squared supremum of a truncated standard Gaussian process. The autocorrelation function of the Gaussian process is explicitly presented. A re‐sampling procedure is recommended to obtain the asymptotic p‐value. Three kernel functions, normal, binomial and Poisson, are used in a simulation study which illustrates the procedure.     

Calibration Estimator of a Rare Sensitive Attribute with Poisson Distribution

In this paper we consider the calibration procedure for a rare sensitive attribute with Poisson distribution which suggested by Land et al. (2012) using auxiliary information associated with the variable of interest. In the calibration procedure, we can use auxiliary information such as socio-demographical variables for the respondents of rare sensitive attribute questions from an external source, and then this estimator can be improved with respect to the problems of non coverage or non response. From the efficiency comparison study, we show that the calibrated Poisson RR estimators are more efficient than that of Land et al. (2012), when the known population cell and marginal counts of auxiliary information are used for the calibration procedure.     

Matrix-analytic Models and their Analysis

We survey phase-type distributions and Markovian point processes, aspects of how to use such models in applied probability calculations and how to fit them to observed data. A phase-type distribution is defined as the time to absorption in a finite continuous time Markov process with one absorbing state. This class of distributions is dense and contains many standard examples like all combinations of exponential in series/parallel. A Markovian point process is governed by a finite continuous time Markov process (typically ergodic), such that points are generated at a Poisson intensity depending on the underlying state and at transitions; a main special case is a Markov-modulated Poisson process. In both cases, the analytic formulas typically contain matrix-exponentials, and the matrix formalism carried over when the models are used in applied probability calculations as in problems in renewal theory, random walks and queueing. The statistical analysis is typically based upon the EM algorithm, viewing the whole sample path of the background Markov process as the latent variable.