试论知青作家的精神姿态及其心理基点

知青作家在 80年代表现出“神奇土地”拟构型、“知青苦难”状写型和“远村岁月”感悟型三种精神姿态。其共同的心理基点 ,是知青时期“生命乐园”失落后的命运自悲情结。心理逻辑分别表现为“殉道”意愿及其自我维护、自命优越及其自悯自谅、自伤身世及其对乡村的“他者”意识     

Covariate Order Tests for Covariate Effect

A new approach for constructing tests for association between a random right censored life time variable and a covariate is proposed. The basic idea is to first arrange the observations in increasing order of the covariate and then base the test on a certain point process defined by the observation times. Tests constructed by this approach are robust against outliers in the covariate values or misspecification of the covariate scale since they only use the ordering of the covariate. Of particular interest is a test based on the Anderson-Darling statistic. This test has good power properties both against monotonic and nonmonotonic dependencies between the covariate and the life time variable.     

Perfect simulation for correlated Poisson random variables conditioned to be positive

In this paper we present a perfect simulation method for obtaining perfect samples from collections of correlated Poisson random variables conditioned to be positive. We show how to use this method to produce a perfect sample from a Boolean model conditioned to cover a set of points: in W.S. Kendall and E. Thönnes (Pattern Recognition 32(9): 1569–1586, 1999), this special case was treated in a more complicated way. The method is applied to several simple examples where exact calculations can be made, so as to check correctness of the program using ²-tests, and some small-scale experiments are carried out to explore the behaviour of the conditioned Boolean model.     

Estimation of a Change Point in a Hazard Function Based on Censored Data

The hazard function plays an important role in reliability or survival studies since it describes the instantaneous risk of failure of items at a time point, given that they have not failed before. In some real life applications, abrupt changes in the hazard function are observed due to overhauls, major operations or specific maintenance activities. In such situations it is of interest to detect the location where such a change occurs and estimate the size of the change. In this paper we consider the problem of estimating a single change point in a piecewise constant hazard function when the observed variables are subject to random censoring. We suggest an estimation procedure that is based on certain structural properties and on least squares ideas. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of this estimator with two estimators available in the literature: an estimator based on a functional of the Nelson-Aalen estimator and a maximum likelihood estimator. The proposed least squares estimator tums out to be less biased than the other two estimators, but has a larger variance. We illustrate the estimation method on some real data sets.     

认识活动辩证运动的逻辑起点：认识角度——认识活动辩证运动新论

认识活动“自己构成自己的道路” ,是由自身内在矛盾推动的辩证运动过程。实践对认识的决定作用必须通过制约和影响认识自身的内在矛盾才能实现。认识活动辩证运动的内在逻辑线索 ,是认识活动由其历史与逻辑统一的起点经中介条件向真理性认识结论辩证运动、系统演进的过程。为逻辑分析的需要 ,我们将这样的过程称之为一个“认识单元”。作为认识活动辩证运动的逻辑起点的认识角度及其丰富的内在规定性 ,在理论形态内在角度分析的方法论意义。     

论邓小平德育理论的逻辑结构

邓小平德育理论是具有中国社会主义特色的德育理论 ,它以马列主义哲学观作为指导思想 ,以“解放思想、实事求是”作为逻辑起点 ,以面向现代化、面向世界、面向未来作为价值取向。其操作过程具有战略、时代特征和中国初级阶段社会主义特色。为我国社会主义德育理论和实践的研究提供了全新的视角     

"七一"讲话理论创新是时代精神的升华

党的地位及其自身建设的变化提出的新的时代课题,是"七一"讲话实现马克思主义中国化又一次理论创新的出发点.国内环境的变化是"七一"讲话实现马克思主义中国化又一次理论创新的立足点.国际环境的变化是"七一"讲话实现马克思主义中国化又一次理论创新的着眼点."七一"讲话体现了以江泽民为核心的第三代领导集体坚持马克思主义与时俱进的理论品格,是时代精神的升华.     

Empirical Uncertain Bayes Methods in Area‐level Models

Random effects model can account for the lack of fitting a regression model and increase precision of estimating area‐level means. However, in case that the synthetic mean provides accurate estimates, the prior distribution may inflate an estimation error. Thus, it is desirable to consider the uncertain prior distribution, which is expressed as the mixture of a one‐point distribution and a proper prior distribution. In this paper, we develop an empirical Bayes approach for estimating area‐level means, using the uncertain prior distribution in the context of a natural exponential family, which we call the empirical uncertain Bayes (EUB) method. The regression model considered in this paper includes the Poisson‐gamma and the binomial‐beta, and the normal‐normal (Fay–Herriot) model, which are typically used in small area estimation. We obtain the estimators of hyperparameters based on the marginal likelihood by using a well‐known expectation‐maximization algorithm and propose the EUB estimators of area means. For risk evaluation of the EUB estimator, we derive a second‐order unbiased estimator of a conditional mean squared error by using some techniques of numerical calculation. Through simulation studies and real data applications, we evaluate a performance of the EUB estimator and compare it with the usual empirical Bayes estimator.     

一维非线性梁振动方程周期解的存在性

对一维非线性梁振动方程utt uxxxx m^2u u^3 f(u)=0,在[0,π]上满足铰链边界条件,其中f(u)=∑^∞m=5fmu^5为解析的奇函数,文章证明了对于大多数的m^2,上述方程存在小振幅周期解。这个证明利用了Lyapunov-Schmidt分解及隐函数定理。     

论法国败降的转折点意义

法国败降以后 ,法西斯集团最终结成军事同盟 ,但国际反法西斯同盟也趋向形成 ;希特勒自此掉入了自掘的两线作战的陷阱。这两个方面注定了侵略与反侵略的最后结局 ,注定了希特勒最后失败的命运。因此说 ,法国败降具有转折点意义