认识活动辩证运动的逻辑起点：认识角度——认识活动辩证运动新论

认识活动“自己构成自己的道路” ,是由自身内在矛盾推动的辩证运动过程。实践对认识的决定作用必须通过制约和影响认识自身的内在矛盾才能实现。认识活动辩证运动的内在逻辑线索 ,是认识活动由其历史与逻辑统一的起点经中介条件向真理性认识结论辩证运动、系统演进的过程。为逻辑分析的需要 ,我们将这样的过程称之为一个“认识单元”。作为认识活动辩证运动的逻辑起点的认识角度及其丰富的内在规定性 ,在理论形态内在角度分析的方法论意义。     

论邓小平德育理论的逻辑结构

邓小平德育理论是具有中国社会主义特色的德育理论 ,它以马列主义哲学观作为指导思想 ,以“解放思想、实事求是”作为逻辑起点 ,以面向现代化、面向世界、面向未来作为价值取向。其操作过程具有战略、时代特征和中国初级阶段社会主义特色。为我国社会主义德育理论和实践的研究提供了全新的视角     

"七一"讲话理论创新是时代精神的升华

党的地位及其自身建设的变化提出的新的时代课题,是"七一"讲话实现马克思主义中国化又一次理论创新的出发点.国内环境的变化是"七一"讲话实现马克思主义中国化又一次理论创新的立足点.国际环境的变化是"七一"讲话实现马克思主义中国化又一次理论创新的着眼点."七一"讲话体现了以江泽民为核心的第三代领导集体坚持马克思主义与时俱进的理论品格,是时代精神的升华.     

Asymptotic Distributions of Unit-Root Tests When the Process Is Nearly Stationary

Several test criteria are available for testing the hypothesis that the autoregressive polynomial of an autoregressive moving average process has a single unit root. Schwert (1989), using a Monte Carlo study, investigated the performance of some of the available test criteria. He concluded that the actual levels of the test criteria considered in his study are far from the specified levels when the moving average polynomial also has a root close to 1. This article studies the asymptotic null distribution of the test statistics for testing p = 1 in the model Y_t = pY _t-1 + e _t – 0e _t-1 as 0 approaches 1. It is shown that the test statistics differ from one another in their asymptotic properties depending on the rate at which 0 converges to 1.     

Confidence curves and improved exact confidence intervals for discrete distributions

The author describes a method for improving standard “exact” confidence intervals in discrete distributions with respect to size while retaining correct level. The binomial, negative binomial, hypergeometric, and Poisson distributions are considered explicitly. Contrary to other existing methods, the author's solution possesses a natural nesting condition: if α < α', the 1 ‐ α' confidence interval is included in the 1 ‐ α interval. Nonparametric confidence intervals for a quantile are also considered.     

依托渝怀铁路实施以路兴区发展战略

结合渝怀线的现有资源和经济状况，采用定性和定量相结合的方法分析了渝怀经济带在西部大开发中的地位、作用及近远期发展战略和思路。     

社会新闻报道的三个选择

社会新闻是以报道社会生活中的人际关系、精神风貌和伦理道德为主的新闻 ,在实践中 ,某些媒体片面追求“卖点”,忽视正确的舆论导向 ,致使一些格调低劣、色情淫秽、凶杀暴力、荒诞不经的内容被播发 ,贻害了社会 ,污染了读者 ,玷污了媒体的形象 ,降低了媒体的品位。社会新闻只有从内容、角度、时机上加以选择 ,才能做到经济效益、社会效益双丰收 ,才能做到可读性、思想性、引导性的最佳结合     

Hazards regression for freemium products and services: a competing risks approach

We propose a competing risks approach to analyse customer behaviours in freemium products and services. The event of interest is when a customer starts to pay for additional features or functionalities. The observation of such an event may be preempted by an event where the customer quits using the product before paying and consuming the additional features or functionalities. One such freemium service is the online game category. The Fine-Gray regression model was implemented for an online game player activity data to study how covariates affect the paying hazard. Some covariates are hypothesized to have different discrete effects at multiple change points. We extend the model to allow for possible change points in the analysis.     

Extension of the Application of Conway‐Maxwell‐Poisson Models: Analyzing Traffic Crash Data Exhibiting Underdispersion

The objective of this article is to evaluate the performance of the COM‐Poisson GLM for analyzing crash data exhibiting underdispersion (when conditional on the mean). The COM‐Poisson distribution, originally developed in 1962, has recently been reintroduced by statisticians for analyzing count data subjected to either over‐ or underdispersion. Over the last year, the COM‐Poisson GLM has been evaluated in the context of crash data analysis and it has been shown that the model performs as well as the Poisson‐gamma model for crash data exhibiting overdispersion. To accomplish the objective of this study, several COM‐Poisson models were estimated using crash data collected at 162 railway‐highway crossings in South Korea between 1998 and 2002. This data set has been shown to exhibit underdispersion when models linking crash data to various explanatory variables are estimated. The modeling results were compared to those produced from the Poisson and gamma probability models documented in a previous published study. The results of this research show that the COM‐Poisson GLM can handle crash data when the modeling output shows signs of underdispersion. Finally, they also show that the model proposed in this study provides better statistical performance than the gamma probability and the traditional Poisson models, at least for this data set.     

澳洲巨星陨落人性光芒不灭——伊丽莎白·乔利作品评析

伊丽莎白·乔利是国际文坛著名的澳大利亚女作家。评论家认为她的作品晦涩难懂、怪诞离奇、滑稽可笑、哀怨有趣;作品的人物多是那些与社会格格不入、行为古怪的人。本文认为是坎坷的人生经历给了她与众不同的视角,其作品所关注的社会边缘人的生存状况是人类文明发展积淀的结果,也是人类走向共同文明必然解决的问题。