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11.
Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war. 相似文献
12.
Statistik für bivariate gemischte Poisson–Prozesse am Beispiel der Kraftfahrthaftpflichtversicherung
Mathias Zocher 《Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv》2005,89(4):383-402
Zusammenfassung: In diesem Artikel wird der Weg von einem univariaten gemischten Poisson–Prozess, der in vielen Bereichen zum Z?hlen von Ereignissen
benutzt wird, zu einem bivariaten gemischten Poisson–Prozess aufgezeigt. Dazu werden einige Eigenschaften des bivariaten Prozesses
angegeben. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit wird gezeigt, wie mit Hilfe dieses Prozesses der übergang von einem herk?mmlichen Bonus–Malus–System
in der Kraftfahrthaftpflichtversicherung zu einem Bonus–Malus–System mit Berücksichtigung der Schadenart beschritten werden
kann. Dazu wird zuerst eine Modellprüfung der gegebenen Daten vorgenommen und sodann werden für verschiedene mischende Verteilungen
die Verteilungsparameter gesch?tzt und Nettopr?mien angegeben sowie die Prognosegenauigkeit getestet.
Summary: In this paper we show that the model of the bivariate mixed Poisson process arises in a natural way from the univariate mixed Poisson process, which is used in several areas for counting certain events. Furthermore we state some properties of the bivariate process. In the second part of the paper we illustrate how by means of the bivariate mixed Poisson process a bonus–malus system handling different types of accidents can be derived from the classical bonus–malus system in third–party liability insurance. To this end we first check the model on the given data and then estimate distribution parameters and compute net premiums for different mixing distributions as well as test the prediction probabilities.
* Vortrag am Dresdner Forum zur Versicherungsmathematik: Tarifierung in Erst- und Rückversicherung am 25. Juni 2004. Für die Unterstützung zu dieser Arbeit m?chte der Autor Lothar Partzsch, Klaus D. Schmidt (beide Dresden) und Friedemann Spies (München) recht herzlich danken. 相似文献
13.
Grard Letac 《Revue canadienne de statistique》1991,19(2):229-232
This note exhibits two independent random variables on integers, X1 and X2, such that neither X1 nor X2 has a generalized Poisson distribution, but X1 + X2 has. This contradicts statements made by Professor Consul in his recent book. 相似文献
14.
Michael Weba 《Statistical Papers》2002,43(3):445-452
n possibly different success probabilities p
1, p
2, ..., p
n
is frequently approximated by a Poisson distribution with parameter λ = p
1 + p
2 + ... + p
n
. LeCam's bound p
2
1 + p
2
2 + ... + p
n
2 for the total variation distance between both distributions is particularly useful provided the success probabilities are
small.
The paper presents an improved version of LeCam's bound if a generalized d-dimensional Poisson binomial distribution is to be approximated by a compound Poisson distribution.
Received: May 10, 2000; revised version: January 15, 2001 相似文献
15.
考虑由一个分销中心和N个零售商组成的两级分销库存系统.假设两级库存补充均采取周期订货策略,在每个零售商处的客户需求是随机的,且服从Poisson分布.当给定的某一货物缺货时,顾客愿意等待特别订货的概率是一确定的常数,在满足给定的客户服务水平的条件下,寻求该供应链总费用的最小化.对库存费用的计算进行了精确的推导,并且得到了最优的订货策略.最后给出了一个算例,根据所得到的公式由电子表格获得了两级最优库存水平. 相似文献
16.
In multiple linear regression analysis, each observation affects the fitted regression equation differently and has varying influences on the regression coefficients of the different variables. Chatterjee & Hadi (1988) have proposed some measures such as DSSEij (Impact on Residual Sum of Squares of simultaneously omitting the ith observation and the jth variable), Fj (Partial F-test for the jth variable) and Fj(i) (Partial F-test for the jth variable omitting the ith observation) to show the joint impact and the interrelationship that exists among a variable and an observation. In this paper we have proposed more extended form of those measures DSSEIJ, FJ and FJ(I) to deal with the interrelationships that exist among the multiple observations and a subset of variables by monitoring the effects of the simultaneous omission of multiple variables and multiple observations. 相似文献
17.
In this article, we generalize the partially linear single-index models to the scenario with some endogenous covariates variables. It is well known that the estimators based on the existing methods are often inconsistent because of the endogeneity of covariates. To deal with the endogenous variables, we introduce some auxiliary instrumental variables. A three-stage estimation procedure is proposed for partially linear single-index instrumental variables models. The first stage is to obtain a linear projection of endogenous variables on a set of instrumental variables, the second stage is to estimate the link function by using local linear smoother for given constant parameters, and the last stage is to obtain the estimators of constant parameters based on the estimating equation. Asymptotic normality is established for the proposed estimators. Some simulation studies are undertaken to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed estimation procedure. 相似文献
18.
《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2012,82(1):135-150
Many if not most lifetime distributions are motivated only by mathematical interest. Here, a new three-parameter distribution motivated mainly by lifetime issues is introduced. Some properties of the new distribution including estimation procedures, univariate generalizations and bivariate generalizations are derived. A real data application is described to show its superior performance versus at least that of 15 of the known lifetime models. 相似文献
19.
We consider a class of dependent Bernoulli variables where the conditional success probability is a linear combination of the last few trials and the original success probability. We obtain its limit theorems including the strong law of large numbers, weak invariance principle, and law of the iterated logarithm. We also derive some statistical inference results which make the model applicable. Simulation results are exhibited as well to show that with small sample size the convergence rate is satisfying and the proposed estimators behave well. 相似文献
20.
Ying-Ying Zhang Ze-Yu Wang Zheng-Min Duan Wen Mi 《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2019,89(16):3061-3074
For the hierarchical Poisson and gamma model, we calculate the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter of the Poisson distribution under Stein's loss function which penalizes gross overestimation and gross underestimation equally and the corresponding Posterior Expected Stein's Loss (PESL). We also obtain the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter under the squared error loss and the corresponding PESL. Moreover, we obtain the empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior by two methods. In numerical simulations, we have illustrated: The two inequalities of the Bayes posterior estimators and the PESLs; the moment estimators and the Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLEs) are consistent estimators of the hyperparameters; the goodness-of-fit of the model to the simulated data. The numerical results indicate that the MLEs are better than the moment estimators when estimating the hyperparameters. Finally, we exploit the attendance data on 314 high school juniors from two urban high schools to illustrate our theoretical studies. 相似文献