试论近代日本的人口问题与对华移民侵略

明治维新以后,日本人口急剧增长,并由此引起了较为严重的粮食问题。日本政府将向海外移民作为排解危机的重要途径。日本殖民主义者则打着"人口过剩"、"粮食不足"的幌子,对华逐步实施移民侵略,以达到其谋占中国的目的。     

老年、老化与老龄化的概念辨析

年龄是衡量个体进入某个生命阶段的常用标志,不仅用来统计个体从出生至死亡所经历的整年数,也用来反映个体某一时期的生理、心理特征,同时也是社会和文化对个体实施的有意义的标记。承载了一定年龄数的老年,首先是一个反映个体生理、心理特征的概念;与此同时,不同的社会文化在法律、法规、角色规范、价值观等社会设置方面对老年的规定和解释也各不相同。老化最初是指个体层面上的从成年到老年生理功能、心理能力的衰退过程,后来越来越多地与个体的整个生命历程以及个体所在的社会文化环境联系起来。老龄化是一个宏观层面上的人口学概念,指老年人口在总人口中比重提高的过程。老年、老化、老龄化三个概念由于在某种程度上均与年龄相关而存在联系,但是它们含义不同,不能混淆使用。     

贫困地区人口发展政策探讨

本文在贫困地区现行人口政策面临的困境、计划生育障碍因子分析和农民生育观念的转变等方面作了些分析和探讨。认为利用发展政策,改变现有的生育方式和生活方式,转变农民的生育观,是制定合理的人口政策的基础。     

Variance estimation in complex survey sampling for generalized linear models

Summary.  Complex survey sampling is often used to sample a fraction of a large finite population. In general, the survey is conducted so that each unit (e.g. subject) in the sample has a different probability of being selected into the sample. For generalizability of the sample to the population, both the design and the probability of being selected into the sample must be incorporated in the analysis. In this paper we focus on non-standard regression models for complex survey data. In our motivating example, which is based on data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, the outcome variable is the subject's 'total health care expenditures in the year 2002'. Previous analyses of medical cost data suggest that the variance is approximately equal to the mean raised to the power of 1.5, which is a non-standard variance function. Currently, the regression parameters for this model cannot be easily estimated in standard statistical software packages. We propose a simple two-step method to obtain consistent regression parameter and variance estimates; the method proposed can be implemented within any standard sample survey package. The approach is applicable to complex sample surveys with any number of stages.     

On the validity of MAPE as a measure of population forecast accuracy

The mean absolute percent error (MAPE) is the summary measure most often used for evaluating the accuracy of population forecasts. While MAPE has many desirable criteria, we argue from both normative and relative standpoints that the widespread practice of exclusively using it for evaluating population forecasts should be changed. Normatively, we argue that MAPE does not meet the criterion of validity because as a summary measure it overstates the error found in a population forecast. We base this argument on logical grounds and support it empirically, using a sample of population forecasts for counties. From a relative standpoint, we examine two alternatives to MAPE, both sharing with it, the important conceptual feature of using most of the information about error. These alternatives are symmetrical MAPE (SMAPE) and a class of measures known as M-estimators. The empirical evaluation suggests M-estimators do not overstate forecast error as much as either MAPE or SMAPE and are, therefore, more valid measures of accuracy. We consequently recommend incorporating M-estimators into the evaluation toolkit. Because M-estimators do not meet the desired criterion of interpretative ease as well as MAPE, we also suggest another approach that focuses on nonlinear transformations of the error distribution.     

浅析孙中山的人口思想

伟大的民主革命先驱孙中山， 在领导中国资产阶级民主革命和建设时，关心重视中国人口问题， 他忧虑中国“人满为患”，形成了丰富而独特的人口思想。     

人发大会:千年目标与生育健康深化

本文将对生育健康的研讨置于国际人口与发展大会和联合国千年发展目标的时空背景下,认为生育健康从提出、认同到履行的15年间,各国都在积极响应并努力践行,但伴随千年发展目标的确立与履行,对生育健康的认识还在不断深化。     

家庭因素对中国儿童健康的影响分析

利用中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)2009年度数据,运用OLS及分位数回归计量方法,对1291名18周岁以下儿童的健康状况(HAZ)进行理论分析与实证研究后发现,在剔除了生理遗传因素的影响后,家庭所在的地理位置、家庭长期福利水平、父亲受教育水平、父母的职业类别以及儿童的年龄都与儿童的健康有显著的相关关系。同时,孩子的性别及家庭中孩子的性别组成显著影响我国儿童的健康。具体而言,男孩的健康状况优于女孩,双子女的家庭规模最利于儿童的健康,且与家庭中只有同一性别的孩子相比,孩子性别比例更为均衡的家庭更利于儿童健康。     

Time series modelling of childhood diseases: a dynamical systems approach

A key issue in the dynamical modelling of epidemics is the synthesis of complex mathematical models and data by means of time series analysis. We report such an approach, focusing on the particularly well-documented case of measles. We propose the use of a discrete time epidemic model comprising the infected and susceptible class as state variables. The model uses a discrete time version of the susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered type epidemic models, which can be fitted to observed disease incidence time series. We describe a method for reconstructing the dynamics of the susceptible class, which is an unobserved state variable of the dynamical system. The model provides a remarkable fit to the data on case reports of measles in England and Wales from 1944 to 1964. Morever, its systematic part explains the well-documented predominant biennial cyclic pattern. We study the dynamic behaviour of the time series model and show that episodes of annual cyclicity, which have not previously been explained quantitatively, arise as a response to a quicker replenishment of the susceptible class during the baby boom, around 1947.     

我国人口老龄化与金融资产需求结构的相关性分析

我国已于2000年进入老龄化社会,基于消费和投资的年龄偏好性差异,老龄人口对金融资产的需求行为影响着我国居民金融资产需求结构的变化。本文根据生命周期理论,通过老龄人口与金融资产需求结构的相关性分析,阐述我国老龄人口对金融资产需求的偏好,并为完善和促进我国老龄人口金融资产需求的多元化提供有意的借鉴。