组织行为学发展的新领域——积极组织行为学

积极组织行为学是组织行为学科在21世纪才兴起的新的研究领域,由鲁森斯于2002年正式提出,强调对人类心理优势的开发与管理。与传统组织行为学将研究领域的重点放在解决管理者和员工的机能失调、冲突、工作压力等问题上所不同的是,积极组织行为学将研究重点放在如何采取积极的方法和怎样发挥员工优势以提高组织的绩效水平上。其研究范畴包括信心/自我效能、希望、乐观、主观幸福感、情绪智力等,具备积极性、独立性、可测量性、可开发性、有助于提高工作绩效等基本特征。     

Higher order moments of order statistics from INID symmetric random variables

In this paper we present analogues of Balakrishnan's (1989) relations that relate the triple and quadruple moments of order statistics from independent and nonidentically distributed (I.NI.D.) random variables from a symmetric distribution to those of the folded distribution. We then apply these results, along with the corresponding recurrence relations for the exponential distribution derived recently by Childs (2003), to study the robustness of the Winsorized variance.     

积极老龄化框架下老年社会参与的难点及对策

通过对三种老龄观的比较,揭示了积极老龄化的内涵、特点以及实现该战略所需的前提条件,在此基础上,从目前社会发展状况和老年人自身主观状态两个方面分析了我国在推进积极老龄化战略方面的难点,并在认可发展经济是第一推动力的同时提出了两点解决问题的对策,以期能够将积极老龄化战略付诸于社会实践。     

一个齐次的有限Markov链——Ehrenfest模型

本文用递推数列的方法研究了一个齐次的有限Markov链(Ehrenfest模型),得出与李政道著“统计力学”相同的结论。但本文表述方式较之准确、简练,推导所用数学工具较之初等、直接。     

Positive Feedback Model for City Vitalization

Abstract  In the present study, we first attempt to construct a model for the dynamics of city images, in which intra- and intercity communications promote the joint possession of city images by residents and the establishment of a city identity. It is suggested that community spirit, which emerges strongly associated with city identity, urges citizens to voluntarily take part in a city's cultural events. The voluntary participation of citizens may change various aspects of a city's functions and physical structure, and as a result the city becomes vitalized in a bottom-up way. Based on this model, we propose a new planning method to facilitate city vitalization as a substitute for hardware-oriented planning. Finally, to ascertain the effectiveness of the new planning method, we focus on Iida City, which has recently successfully established its identity as a puppet drama town.     

Small-sample results for maximum-likelihood estimation in branching processes

In this article, small sample properties of the maximum-likelihood estimator (m.l.e.) for the offspring distribution (pk) and its mean m are considered in the context of the simple branching process. A representation theorem is given for the m.l.e. of (Pk) from which the m.l.e. of m is obtained. The case where p0 + p1 + p2 = 1 is studied in detail: numerical results are given for the exact bias of these estimators as a function of the age of the process; a curve fitting analysis expresses the bias of m? as a function of the mean and the variance of the offspring distribution and finally an “approximate m.l.e.” for (pk) is given.     

First passage game

Appealing to the theory of stochastic games, a two-person, zero-sum first passage game, which may be viewed as a generalization of the first passage decision problem, is developed. In the first passage game, the players have stationary optional strategies and the values are unique and these can be computed using an algorithm for terminating stochastic games. It is also shown that the solution of a recurrence game is closely related to that of the first passage game. Finally, it is shown that a finite step stochastic game with nonstationary transition probabilities and payoffs can be converted to a first passage game whose solution yields a solution of the original finite step game. The first passage game so obtained has stationary transition probabilities and payoffs. Because of its special structure, the solution method reduces to a dynamic programming recursion in the context of games.     

对美国资本有机构成变动趋势的实证分析

本文依据大量的历史统计数据,对美国制造业等行业以及全行业资本有机构成进行纵向、横向考察,认为若将上世纪五十至七十年代初发达资本主义国家资本有机构成的变动趋势概括为“提高缓慢,基本稳定, 有时下降”,则当代尤其是近年来其变动趋势可进一步概括为“波动中缓慢下降”。科技进步的推动、生产资料的节约、工资水平的提升、产业结构的调整是资本有机构成变动的重要原因。     

Bias reduction for the maximum likelihood estimator of the doubly-truncated Poisson distribution

ABSTRACT

We derive an analytic expression for the bias of the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameter in a doubly-truncated Poisson distribution, which proves highly effective as a means of bias correction. For smaller sample sizes, our method outperforms the alternative of bias correction via the parametric bootstrap. Bias is of little concern in the positive Poisson distribution, the most common form of truncation in the applied literature. Bias appears to be the most severe in the doubly-truncated Poisson distribution, when the mean of the distribution is close to the right (upper) truncation.