服务失误归因对服务补救效果的影响

服务失误是企业所竭力避免的,实践和学术研究都表明,在遭遇服务失误后,顾客满意度和顾客再购买意愿都会下降,而不同原因导致的服务失误对顾客满意度和购后行为的影响也不同。本文对于服务失误的原因重新做了分类,除了既有研究已关注的“内因”和“外因”外,补充了可能导致服务失误的第三方原因。通过情景模拟实验法,比较了这三种原因的服务失误对顾客满意度和购后行为的影响。结果发现,“外因”导致的服务失误对于顾客的负面影响最大,“内因”导致的服务失误对于顾客的负面影响最小,第三方导致的服务失误对于顾客的负面影响介于前两者之间。但无论是什么原因导致的服务失误,相同的服务补救引发的顾客反应是相同的。     

大学城周边产业集群与城市良性互动发展研究

由于高等教育办学规模的扩大和新技术革命的需求，各国先后兴建起大学城，并且大学城周边出现了与教育相关的科研机构、企业集群和生活服务产业集群。大学城周边产业集群对城市发展产生的互动效应主体现在经济集聚效应、经济辐射效应、外部正效应和投资乘数效应四方面，由分析可知产生良性的互动效应，政府、高校、科研机构、企业必须进行资源共享和有效合作，积极引导集群内企业与高校在产业结构和学科结构上相互融合，协同创新，加快产学研一体化进程，进而促进城市产业结构的优化和区域经济的增长。     

邹衍五行说考论

邹衍对阴阳与五行思想的改造与发展，在秦汉思想史上占有非常重要的地位。他的学说，对后世的《吕氏春秋》、《淮南子》和《春秋繁露》等书都产生了很大的影响。本文试图通过对其生平著作、学说内容与命运等问题进行全面考察与分析，这将有助于我们更深入地考察秦汉社会思想文化变迁的轨迹。     

What Comes After the Prestige Disaster? An Entropic Approach to Modeling the Recurrence of Major Oil Tanker Spills in Galicia

A methodology is presented to investigate the recurrence of extraordinary events. The approach is fully general and complies with a canon of inference establishing a set of basic rationality requirements scientific reasoning should satisfy. In particular, we apply it to model the interarrival time between disastrous oil spills in the Galician coast in the northwest of Spain, one of the greatest risk areas in the world, as confirmed by the Prestige accident of November 2002. We formulate the problem within the logical probability framework, using plausible logic languages with observations to allow the appropriate expression of evidences. Therein, inference is regarded as the joint selection of a pair of reference and inferred probability distributions, which better encode the knowledge about potential times between incidents provided by the available evidences and other higher-order information at hand. To solve it, we employ the REF relative entropy method with fractile constraints. Next, we analyze the variability of the joint entropic solution, as knowledge that a time has elapsed since the last recorded spill is added, by conditioning the evidences. Attention is paid to the variability of two representative parameters: the average reference recurrence time and an inferred characteristic probability fractile for the time to an event. In contrast with classical results, the salient consequence is their nonconstancy with the elapsed time and the appearance of a variability pattern indicating an observational memory, even under the assumption of one-parameter exponential models, traditionally regarded as memoryless. Tanker accidentality is therefore dynamic, changing as time goes on with no further accidents. Generality of the methodology entails that identical conclusions would apply to hazard modeling of any other kind of extraordinary phenomena. This should be considered in risk assessment and management.     

回归与融合:联结中西艺术的桥梁——论海外华文诗歌与中国诗学传统

海外华文诗人不断从西方现代派那里汲取营养，与中国传统的诗歌艺术经验和表现手法（如意境、意象。比兴等）相结合，扩大了海外华文诗歌的艺术表现力与感染力。因此，在中西诗艺相通的基础上，海外华文诗歌表现了向中国诗学传统回归且与西方现代诗学精华融合贯通的趋势。     

当代城乡劳动力琉动与配置的统计分析

农村劳动力外流是一个显著的社会现象,为实现城乡劳动力规范有序公平流动和合理配置,文章运用统计性分析的方法,揭示了劳动力流动规律,发现流动原因和制约因素,给政策的选择提供了理论依据。研究结果具有实证基础。     

正蕴涵BCK-代数与剩余半群

从剩余半群的角度，探讨了正蕴涵BCK-代数的伴随半群的若干重要特征，给出了BCK-代数是正蕴涵的等价条件。     

Tools for evaluating EU agricultural policies: An integrated approach

The aim of this paper is to propose a theoretical “multi-phase” strategy for analysing in dynamic terms the territorial impact of agricultural and environmental EU policy measures. This approach should also allow to evaluate the adjustment capability of farms as a function of the characteristics of different territories. The proposed methodology is illustrated by an example using data relative to the 41 provinces of Northern Italy. In the first step, a multivariate statistical analysis (MSA) consisting in Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis leads to the identification of homogeneous clusters of territorial units. The territorial mapping is conditional to a predetermined set of indicators that takes into account different aspects of agricultural development. In a second step, Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) allows to introduce the impact of agricultural policies (compensatory payments, price changes, etc.) returning different scenarios of land use and agricultural profitability. According to the outputs of the PMP, the third step consists in a new MSA for detecting any changes in the territorial mapping. Convergence analysis can then synthesise the impact of the different policy options.     

External Assets as Predictors of Positive Emotions Among At‐Risk Youth in Malaysia

The present study is among the first to examine external assets as predictors of positive emotions among at‐risk youth. The study aims to examine the associations of external assets with positive emotions, determine external assets as a predictor of positive emotions in phase 1, and see if these predictors were consistently established in phase 2. At first contact, 403 participants from low‐income apartments in the suburbs of Kuala Lumpur, aged 13–25 years were asked to complete the 25 Developmental Assets, Malaysian version. The participants were also invited to participate in social activities organized by the PERMATA community. The same participants were approached four months later to examine the stability of measures. Multiple regression analysis revealed support is the most significant predictor of positive emotions at phase 1 whilst positive peer influence, family boundaries and caring neighborhood are the significant predictors at phase 2. Results suggested that the presence of other external assets can enhance the positive development of at‐risk youth, however, the support must be present to some extent in the first place.