现代文学的“游子还乡”题材

现代文学中“游子还乡”模式演变 ,由传统的大团圆嬗变为归乡再度离乡。归乡源于知识分子的启蒙冲动 ,再度离乡则因其未能达到民众的官财双重价值标准。知识分子主体性在乡间无法确立 ,启蒙价值难以实现 ,不得不再度离乡 ,在寻找中保持其独特性     

M-quantile models with application to poverty mapping

Over the last decade there has been growing demand for estimates of population characteristics at small area level. Unfortunately, cost constraints in the design of sample surveys lead to small sample sizes within these areas and as a result direct estimation, using only the survey data, is inappropriate since it yields estimates with unacceptable levels of precision. Small area models are designed to tackle the small sample size problem. The most popular class of models for small area estimation is random effects models that include random area effects to account for between area variations. However, such models also depend on strong distributional assumptions, require a formal specification of the random part of the model and do not easily allow for outlier robust inference. An alternative approach to small area estimation that is based on the use of M-quantile models was recently proposed by Chambers and Tzavidis (Biometrika 93(2):255–268, 2006) and Tzavidis and Chambers (Robust prediction of small area means and distributions. Working paper, 2007). Unlike traditional random effects models, M-quantile models do not depend on strong distributional assumption and automatically provide outlier robust inference. In this paper we illustrate for the first time how M-quantile models can be practically employed for deriving small area estimates of poverty and inequality. The methodology we propose improves the traditional poverty mapping methods in the following ways: (a) it enables the estimation of the distribution function of the study variable within the small area of interest both under an M-quantile and a random effects model, (b) it provides analytical, instead of empirical, estimation of the mean squared error of the M-quantile small area mean estimates and (c) it employs a robust to outliers estimation method. The methodology is applied to data from the 2002 Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) in Albania for estimating (a) district level estimates of the incidence of poverty in Albania, (b) district level inequality measures and (c) the distribution function of household per-capita consumption expenditure in each district. Small area estimates of poverty and inequality show that the poorest Albanian districts are in the mountainous regions (north and north east) with the wealthiest districts, which are also linked with high levels of inequality, in the coastal (south west) and southern part of country. We discuss the practical advantages of our methodology and note the consistency of our results with results from previous studies. We further demonstrate the usefulness of the M-quantile estimation framework through design-based simulations based on two realistic survey data sets containing small area information and show that the M-quantile approach may be preferable when the aim is to estimate the small area distribution function.     

中国省际农村居民收入分配的动态演变:2001-2009年

近十年是我国经济发展变化最快的一段时期,然而“三农”问题日益突出,农民收入是亟待解决的根本问题。本文利用趋同检验、核密度估计以及转移矩阵等方法刻画了我国省际农村居民收入分配的动态演变。实证分析表明,我国贫困地区农村居民收入水平比富裕地区有更高的增长率,从而导致省际农村收入差距呈逐渐缩小趋势,但不同省份的相对收入状况的变动却有所不同。     

试论1918—1920年北洋政府与俄关系

俄国十月革命后,北洋政府面临如何处理与旧俄政权的关系问题。军阀控制的北洋政府意图取消同旧俄政权的关系,并为此作了努力,其中包括停付庚子赔款、停止旧俄使领待遇及收回旧俄租界、旧俄驻华使领馆等。因列强公使团干涉,北洋政府的行动未取得预期效果;但行动本身对于中国与苏俄关系的发展起到了一定的促进作用。     

固定效应部分线性变系数面板模型的快速有效估计

本文将最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM) 和二次推断函数法(QIF) 相结合，为个体内具有相关结构的固定效应部分线性变系数面板模型提供了一种新的快速估计方法；在一定的正则条件下，论证了参数估计量的渐近正态性和非参数估计量的收敛速度；采用Monte Carlo模拟考察了估计方法在有限样本下的表现并将估计技术应用于现实数据分析。该方法不仅保证了估计的有效性和统计推断力，而且程序运行速度得到较大幅度提升。     

Power and dependence perspectives on outsourcing decisions

Since the 1980s outsourcing has been a major topic in both economic and management literature. Economic literature tends to focus on the transaction cost perspective. In management literature the core competence approach prevails. An emerging alternative view on outsourcing is the power and dependence perspective. Aspects of power and dependence become visible in four case studies involving the maintenance of capital assets. In each instance both the buyer and supplier sides of the dyad are examined. The paper concludes with managerial implications and research opportunities.     

论高校学报质量函数关系

高等学校学报质量是一个整体概念,要在策划、选题、审稿、编校、装帧设计、印制、发行等各个环节都以质量为本,以求达到最佳质量效果。每一个环节的质量形成了一个质量体系,这个质量体系包含多个参数组成,每一个参数对高等学校学报质量作用不同,从而这些参数与学报整体质量形成函数关系。     

新疆回族驼运业的调查与研究

伴随着自元代起始的徙居,地处丝绸之路孔道的新疆回族便开始了远距离经商贸易活动。作为集货物运输与商业贸易为一体的商旅组织,回族驼运业随丝绸之路的兴衰而消长。到民国后,回族驼运业迅猛发展,在新疆驼运业中,规模最大,经营活动范围最广,资金最雄厚,社会影响最巨。本文依据田野调查资料及文献记载,对新疆回族驼运的组织与功能、通商路线与营运货物、驼运业兴起的原因及驼队的演变、新疆回族现在的经商运输情况等,作了系统论述。     

实施"兴边富民行动"政策的理论思考

本文从边疆政策的历史沿革、"兴边富民行动"的历史背景、政策取向等方面,深入探讨了"兴边富民行动"政策的作用和意义。     

异质性视角下中国农村居民减贫效应研究——基于FGT贫困指数的分解新方法

在我国即将完成脱贫攻坚背景下,异质性在居民减贫并防返贫进程中逐渐起到关键作用。本文通过反事实分析法将收入分布变迁分解为均值、方差以及残差三种变化,进而将其引入贫困分解中,对我国农村及区域贫困进行分解。研究表明,引入收入分布变迁贫困分解结果具有稳健性,且农村居民收入增长效应与离散效应存在非对称性,提高收入已不足以弥补收入差距扩大带来的贫困加深效应,而异质效应和离散效应间存在对称性,居民异质性在减贫进程中逐渐起到关键作用。同时从区域视角看,东部区域异质效应减贫效果明显高于增长效应;中部区域增长效应和异质效应均具有显著减贫效果;而西南区域增长效应的减贫效果最显著。