CAPM模型对我国股市的实证分析

本文以我国股票市场为研究对象,选用2007年1月—2010年12月的月度时间序列数据,分别进行了单位根检验和回归分析,结果表明:在该段时间内,CAPM在我国的股票市场是有效的,并且个股的收益率与市场组合收益率呈正相关关系,通过对截距项的分析,比较了各个股票预期与实际收益率的差别,对投资者具有一定的指导意义。     

Predictors of treatment outcome in a child and adolescent psychiatry clinic: A naturalistic exploration

We present data on predictors of treatment outcome for 3200 consecutive referrals to a child and adolescent psychiatry clinic. Using Reliable Change Index (RCI) methodology, we divided children into those who, between intake and discharge, improved, stayed the same, or got worse according to clinician-rated impairment. Most predictors of improvement were related to parent variables (marital status, maternal anxiety, and ethnicity), while those associated with deterioration were tied to child status (extent of psychiatric comorbidity, history of placement in a self-contained classroom, and a prior trial of psychotropic medications). The implications of these findings for data-driven program development, clinic management, treatment planning, and systems of care are discussed.     

中国各地区市场化进程区位分布的空间效应研究

 本文从空间分析的角度研究各地区市场化进程的空间效应及其对区域经济增长绩效的影响,空间计量经济分析的结果表明市场化进程的空间分布在整个样本区间与GDP、资本和劳动一样呈现出集聚的趋势,区域差异显著,各地区的市场化进程在地理空间上存在显著的自相关关系,证实了各地区市场化进程存在制度溢出效应。因此,在研究各地区市场化进程与经济增长关系时必须考虑其空间效应的影响,基于此结论本文运用空间计量模型测算了各地区市场化进程对经济增长的贡献。结果证实,考虑了空间效应后,市场化进程在1998～2001年阶段对经济增长的贡献约为6.2％,在2002～2005年阶段约为10.8％,这表明了市场化对中国的经济增长起到了重要的作用,而且近年来的贡献愈加显著。     

城镇劳动力市场城乡分割的程度与特征 ——基于浙江数据的经验研究

 劳动力市场的城乡分割意味着经济效率的损失,一直来备受关注。本文构建了一个劳动力市场城乡分割指数,基于中国城镇住户调查浙江省的数据,测量了城镇劳动力市场城乡分割的程度。结果显示：在工资回报层面,相对高端领域的分割程度弱于相对低端领域,但在就业机会层面,相对高端领域的分割程度强于相对低端领域。为此我们建议：劳动力市场管理上重点关注低端劳动力市场中城乡劳动者的同工同酬问题,公共政策设计上重点关注高端劳动力市场中城乡劳动力的平等就业机会问题。     

Subjective Quality of Life in Zhuhai City,South China: A Public Survey Using the International Wellbeing Index

The study of subjective quality of life and its connotations in the People’s Republic of China is at a preliminary stage. Although there is an emerging body of literature on this topic, there are few datasets representative of the general public, particularly in Mainland China. This paper reports the findings of a public survey (N = 449) conducted in Zhuhai City, South China using the International Wellbeing Index (IWI). There were four main aims: (1) to judge whether residents were satisfied with their lives; (2) to compare the data with recent findings from Hong Kong and Macau; (3) to investigate the equivalence of the IWI in terms of its psychometric properties; and (4) to determine the applicability of the ‘Theory of Homeostasis Wellbeing’. The data indicated a moderate level of personal (PWI score = 64.4.) and national (NWI score = 57.4) wellbeing, consistent with recent findings from Hong Kong and Macau. The PWI score was within the normative range for non-Western countries, which indicates that the residents were, on the whole, satisfied with their lives. Although previously reported objective measures of quality of life in Zhuhai are lower than in Hong Kong and Macau, this is not reflected in this study’s subjective measures. This finding was interpreted in terms of the ‘Theory of Subjective Wellbeing Homeostasis’, and the specific situation in Zhuhai, as there seems to be an absence of factors (i.e., no harsh economic or social situation) which could drive subjective wellbeing below normal. Last, that the IWI demonstrated good psychometric performance in terms of its reliability, validity, and sensitivity, and concurred with previous published reports, it seems that the scale’s robustness generalises to Chinese samples.     

我国流动人口的流入地分布变动趋势研究

利用1982年以来的历次全国人口普查和1%人口抽样调查的数据,本文从区域、省份、城市等层面分析了流动人口流入地分布的变动趋势。流动人口的流入地分布呈现明显的集中趋势。从区域层面来说,流动人口越来越向东部地区集中,越来越向东部和南部沿海地区集中;从省级层面来说,流动人口越来越集中流向少数省份,前5个流动人口最多的省(市、区)吸纳了全国一半的流动人口;从城市层面来说,流动人口越来越集中流向少数城市,表现出突出的极化现象;进入新世纪以来,我国正在形成一个由35个左右城市构成的沿海城市带,它们吸收了全国半数以上的流动人口。流动人口流入地分布的这种集中趋势将会继续保持下去,此乃制定与流动人口相关政策和制度的基本出发点和前提。     

The French Regions and Their Social Health

In this article, a new indicator designed to capture the multidimensionality of the social health of the French regions is put to the test. Drawing on regional data for 2004, this indicator of social health (ISH) sheds new light on the social performance of the French regions. The worst performers are the highly urbanised regions, whereas others, such as Limousin, turn out to perform well in social terms. Two or three regions remain stuck at the bottom of the table regardless of the indicator used. Nord-Pas-de-Calais and Languedoc-Roussillon, which bring up the rear in terms of gross disposable income (GDI) and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, also record very mediocre scores for social health as measured by our ISH.

新疆维吾尔自治区死亡水平的演变规律及分布特征分析

本文根据《新疆辉煌50年》及三次人口普查数据,分析了新疆维吾尔自治区历年来死亡率、死亡人数、死亡率模式、平均预期寿命等指标的演变过程及分布特征,试图揭示新疆维吾尔自治区死亡水平的内在变动规律,为计划生育及相关政府部门制定政策提供依据。     

A new nonlinear asymmetric cointegration approach using error correction models

In this article, two new powerful tests for cointegration are proposed. The general idea is based on an intuitively appealing extension of the traditional, rather restrictive cointegration concept. In this article, we allow for a nonlinear, but most importantly a different, asymmetric convergence process to account for negative and positive changes in our cointegration approach. Using Monte Carlo simulations we verify, that the estimated size of the first test depends on the unknown value of a signal-to-noise ratio q. However, our second test—which is based on the original ideas of Kanioura and Turner—is more successful and robust in the sense that it works in all of the different evaluated situations. Furthermore it is shown to be more powerful than the traditional residual based Enders and Siklos method. The new optimal test is also applied in an empirical example in order to test for potential nonlinear asymmetric price transmission effects on the Swedish power market. We find that there is a higher propensity for power retailers to rapidly and systematically increase their retail electricity prices subsequent to increases in Nordpool's wholesale prices, than there is for them to reduce their prices subsequent to a drop in wholesale spot prices.     

The social benefits of water and sanitation projects in Northern Colombia: Cost‐Benefit Analysis,the Water Poverty Index and beyond

Water, and Sanitation projects play an important role in alleviating water‐related poverty in developing countries. There are several methodologies that will not only assess the performance of these projects but will also help to better identify the problem and its characteristics, and to improve the efficiency of the investment. The Water Poverty Index is one of them. It is a very useful tool that helps to measure water stress at the household level in a holistic way, and to identify priorities. It is important, however, to complement it with a Cost‐Benefit Analysis that will take into account the costs of the project. A case study in Northern Colombia illustrates this point.