中国老年人虚弱指数与死亡风险及队列差异

利用中国老年人健康长寿影响因素调查（ CLHLS ）2002－2011年跟踪调查数据,通过多种健康指标构建中国老年人虚弱指数,运用增长曲线模型和Cox等比例风险函数的研究方法,对中国老年人虚弱指数和死亡风险及其队列差异进行了深入分析。研究发现,女性虚弱指数比男性高,增长速度也比男性快,但是死亡风险比男性低;出生较晚的队列与出生早的队列相比,虚弱指数会更高,他们的增长程度更快;受教育程度高的老年人虚弱指数低,但是其增长速度却比受教育程度低的老年人要高。     

The social benefits of water and sanitation projects in Northern Colombia: Cost‐Benefit Analysis,the Water Poverty Index and beyond

Water, and Sanitation projects play an important role in alleviating water‐related poverty in developing countries. There are several methodologies that will not only assess the performance of these projects but will also help to better identify the problem and its characteristics, and to improve the efficiency of the investment. The Water Poverty Index is one of them. It is a very useful tool that helps to measure water stress at the household level in a holistic way, and to identify priorities. It is important, however, to complement it with a Cost‐Benefit Analysis that will take into account the costs of the project. A case study in Northern Colombia illustrates this point.     

A new nonlinear asymmetric cointegration approach using error correction models

In this article, two new powerful tests for cointegration are proposed. The general idea is based on an intuitively appealing extension of the traditional, rather restrictive cointegration concept. In this article, we allow for a nonlinear, but most importantly a different, asymmetric convergence process to account for negative and positive changes in our cointegration approach. Using Monte Carlo simulations we verify, that the estimated size of the first test depends on the unknown value of a signal-to-noise ratio q. However, our second test—which is based on the original ideas of Kanioura and Turner—is more successful and robust in the sense that it works in all of the different evaluated situations. Furthermore it is shown to be more powerful than the traditional residual based Enders and Siklos method. The new optimal test is also applied in an empirical example in order to test for potential nonlinear asymmetric price transmission effects on the Swedish power market. We find that there is a higher propensity for power retailers to rapidly and systematically increase their retail electricity prices subsequent to increases in Nordpool's wholesale prices, than there is for them to reduce their prices subsequent to a drop in wholesale spot prices.     

Predictors of treatment outcome in a child and adolescent psychiatry clinic: A naturalistic exploration

We present data on predictors of treatment outcome for 3200 consecutive referrals to a child and adolescent psychiatry clinic. Using Reliable Change Index (RCI) methodology, we divided children into those who, between intake and discharge, improved, stayed the same, or got worse according to clinician-rated impairment. Most predictors of improvement were related to parent variables (marital status, maternal anxiety, and ethnicity), while those associated with deterioration were tied to child status (extent of psychiatric comorbidity, history of placement in a self-contained classroom, and a prior trial of psychotropic medications). The implications of these findings for data-driven program development, clinic management, treatment planning, and systems of care are discussed.     

基于“健康中国2020”目标的二维人口健康不公平指数研究

目的：本研究基于“健康中国2020战略”,旨在开发一种可综合评价人口健康公平性的二维指数。这里将公平性定位于“人口健康产出的平等”。方法：应用生态学研究、因子分析等方法对中国31个省、自治区和直辖市的人口健康不公平指数进行测算。之后。对健康不公平指数的信度和效度进行检验。资料主要来源于2003年国家卫生服务调查数据。结果：由8个变量合成的中国人口健康不公平指数（IHI）的中住数为0．27838π（范围：0π～0．39002π）。该指数具有较高的内部一致性（Cronbach α系数＝0．8304）和信度（Spearman相关系数〉0．8．P〈0．05）。IHI与社会剥夺指数（Spearman相关系数＝0．731,P〈0．05）、期望寿命（Spearman相关系数＝-0．569,P〈0．05）和基尼系数（Spearman相关系数=0．805。P〈0．05）间具有较好的相关性。结论：IHI是一种二维、具有较好信度和效度的监测“健康中国2020”战略的指数．它与基尼系数相比在对人口健康公平性的综合评估方面更具优势。该指数还可应用于政策干预效果评价、弱势群体的确定及卫生资源分配等领域。     

中国黄金期货市场价格发现功能研究

黄金期货在国内上市三年有余,其价格发现功能发挥如何?本文利用上市以来的972个黄金期货和黄金现货样本数据对黄金期货市场功能发挥情况进行了量化研究。分别采用了协整理论、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果分析和脉冲响应函数进行分析。结果显示黄金期货市场已经渐渐发挥其价格发现功能,但并不十分显著,究其原因,与交易制度密切相关。     

CAPM模型对我国股市的实证分析

本文以我国股票市场为研究对象,选用2007年1月—2010年12月的月度时间序列数据,分别进行了单位根检验和回归分析,结果表明:在该段时间内,CAPM在我国的股票市场是有效的,并且个股的收益率与市场组合收益率呈正相关关系,通过对截距项的分析,比较了各个股票预期与实际收益率的差别,对投资者具有一定的指导意义。     

Applying the international wellbeing index to investigate subjective wellbeing of New Zealanders with European and with Maori heritage

Abstract

The International Wellbeing Index (IWI), a global measure for investigating subjective wellbeing, consists of a Personal Wellbeing Index (PWI) and a National Wellbeing Index (NWI). The index is applied to the two largest ethnic populations in New Zealand—New Zealanders with European heritage and New Zealanders with Maori heritage. Psychometric characteristics of the IWI for both subsamples compare favourably to those found in other countries. However, for both subsamples, the absolute value of reported subjective wellbeing is lower than expected. Consistent with other social indicators, New Zealanders with Maori heritage show even lower values of PWI and NWI than New Zealanders with European heritage.     

中国流通A股市场大盘股价指数研究

本文对我国现行股价指数计算中存在的问题进行了分析,提出了流通A股价格指数和流通A股资金指数方案。本文计算出的指数不仅有助于解决现行指数反映市场变化不充分的问题,同时还为股票市场的定量分析奠定了基础。     

实践语境下的“代价”追问——哲学视野中的“代价”问题

当前对“代价”的理解有几种不同范式。但只有将“代价是什么”置于马克思的实践唯物主义语境下考察,才能彰显其本质性意蕴。“追向”的结论是:代价产生于人的实践活动之中,它的消解也只能在实践活动中进行。