近两年来价格上涨的特征、 原因及走势分析

 内容提要：2007年以来，我国市场价格呈现出快速上涨的态势，成为当前经济运行中的一个突出矛盾和问题。本文以大量翔实的数据，对近两年来价格上涨的主要特征进行了归纳和刻画，对上涨原因进行了全面系统客观的分析，特别指出了此轮价格上涨不同于以往的深刻背景。特别提出要正确处理好两个关系：防止通货膨胀与保持经济增长的关系，防止价格过快上涨与理顺价格体制的关系。     

价格波动的可控性

本文研究了如何提出合理的预期价格,保证供给和需求趋于均衡,从而实现价格波动的可控性。     

被收购企业的博弈分析

在企业的收购活动中,收购价格始终处于一个相当关键的地位,收购能否成功,很大程度上取决于双方是否能在收购价格上达成一致.本文采用现代博弈论的分析方法,以古诺(Cournot)模型为基础,讨论了均衡收购价格的确定.量化论证了在不完全信息的情况下,最终的均衡收购价格比完全信息的情况下要高.同时指出,企业的资产负债率(Debt-to-Assset Ratio)以及由此形成的加权平均资本成本(Weighted-Average Cost of Capital)对均衡价格方面也有一定的影响.     

城市房价与失业率的关联性研究

房价与失业率是社会与经济波动的主要振荡源,已引起政府部门的高度关注。而目前国内外对房价与失业率关联性的研究几乎是一片空白。基于此,本文从中国的实际情况出发,以国内房价与失业率的数据为研究依据,通过协整分析和格兰杰因果检验,对房价与失业率的关联性进行了实证分析。结果显示:房价与失业率存在关联,房价的变动对失业率会产生显著影响,且房价对失业率的短期效用为负,长期效应为正;而失业率对房价的影响微弱。为维持房价稳定和保证充分就业,政府应采取相应的政策措施。     

上海完善国际航行船舶保税油市场的对策研究

随着我国对国际航行船舶保税油市场允许跨区域开展连锁经营以及保税油销售量的迅速增加,船舶保税油市场服务已成为港口配套服务中最重要和最核心的功能,反映了港口对外开放程度和服务水平。但上海在船舶保税油市场方面不仅与鹿特丹、新加坡和香港地区等国际航运中心存在一定的差距,还面临着深圳、青岛、天津、宁波以及舟山等其他大陆港口的激烈竞争。通过深入分析上海船舶保税油市场的发展现状和存在问题,借鉴国际典型港口发展船舶保税油市场的成功经验,分别从供应商、行业中介、监管部门角度提出完善上海船舶保税油市场建设的对策,提升上海国际航运中心对全球航运资源的配置能力。     

我国金属期货价格指数编制及其实证研究

 本文研究和总结了商品期货价格指数编制理论和方法,梳理了国内外商品期货价格指数编制的成功经验,并基于前述研究基础设计了五种我国金属期货价格指数编制方案。最后基于实证检验的方法,通过对比各方案指数在指数平稳性、指数投资功能、对宏观经济的反应等方面的表现,确定“持仓量”滚动型方案为最优方案。 本文主要创新点在于第一次系统、全面地研究并提出了商品期货价格指数的基本理论和方法,第一次全方位、多角度地研究了我国金属期货价格指数的编制方法和方案,为建构我国商品期货价格指数体系奠定了坚实的理论基础,提供了具有较高通用性的编制方案,同时,为我国商品投资提供了客观的基准指数,为指数衍生产品创新提供了有效标的。     

The independent’s edge in an illegal drug distribution setting: Levitt and Venkatesh revisited

Popular imagery and scholarly research have differed significantly in their perceptions and understanding of the structure and scope of organized crime and gang settings. While the common image is that of the corporate-like or formal criminal organization, past research has been more likely to argue and demonstrate in favour of market and network flexibility. In this study, we pursue this latter line of inquiry by demonstrating the market and network features that shape illegal drug distribution settings. In doing so, we rely on the Quebec Hells Angels accounting books for a one-year period, which brings us within the same empirical domain as Levitt and Venkatesh’s (2000) study of the Black Knights in 1990s Chicago. Our study sways from the main premise that oriented the Black Knight’s case study—namely that performance within the illegal drug distribution structure was directly tied to that organization’s rigid hierarchical structure. While the Hells Angels can be analyzed as a corporation, this does not mean that Hells Angels members are, by definition, at an advantage because of their organizational status in the illegal drug distribution setting in which some members are active. What our findings indicate is that a participant’s ability to adapt to market dynamics and take on a core network position within an illegal drug market (cocaine, in this study) matter most. Overall, we demonstrate that: 1) Quebec’s cocaine market was structured primarily around traditional market forces; 2) the transaction network around the Hells Angels was not centralized around a single person or small group of people; 3) Hells Angels members were not the most active participants; and 4) being a Hells Angels member did not increase one’s volume of transactions within the network—quite differently, core network positioning did.     

Price controls, trade protectionism and political business cycles in the U.S. steel industry

The U.S. steel industry is subject to a microeconomic political business cycle resulting from U.S. Presidents designing protectionist policies on behalf of the steel industry; experiencing complaints from consumers and foreign producers as a result of the policy; modifying the policy which results in complaints from the steel industry; and finally, maneuvering policy back in favor of the industry to achieve re-election. Using a cointegrating vector error correction framework, this paper tests the hypothesized political business cycle for its effect on steel prices. We find that trade protectionism does not seem to have succeeded in its primary objective of supporting prices. By expending so much political capital on ineffective trade protection, the steel industry may have lost the opportunity to focus on more substantive issues that might have restrained factor cost and enhanced its competitive ability. The devolution of the steel industry, ironically, may have resulted from it's persistent pleas for protection. Political business cycles in the steel industry, with all its attendant negative consequences, would not occur if the steel industry did not continually lobby for protection.     

Performance as a Basis for Price-setting in the Capital Goods Industry:: Concepts and Empirical Evidence

This paper discusses a new pricing strategy, which leads to a certain variability of prices as the supplier offers to fix prices to performance parameters of long-lasting industrial goods. The underlying idea is to give a signal of the supplier’s competence and/or to conclude a contract, which contains additional value for both parties to the market. Some theoretical findings are applied to this concept and lead to 13 hypotheses, especially dealing with the perceptions of the buyer. Empirical research covered 131 German mechanical engineering companies. The data were used to evaluate the use of performance-based pricing and test the hypotheses. The results show a mixed picture. Uncertainty-reducing effects are well perceived while other assumptions could not be confirmed. Based on the results recommendations are developed on how and when to apply performance-based pricing.     

用电补贴的政策分析

利用数学模型方法 ,对用电补贴的政策效率进行了研究 ,分析和比较了收入补贴与价格补贴的优缺点 ,给出了结论和建议。