斯·茨威格的教育思想

茨威格在其回忆录和一些小说中，对奥地利当时的教育制度、教学计划、学校、教育者、学生等都是有颇多微词的。今天再来审视茨威格对他的中小学生活的回忆，可以看出他对旧教育制度的愤懑，也不难发现其中蕴含着具有远见卓识的教育理念，这在２１世纪我们大兴创新教育之际仍有借鉴作用。     

英语写作中有效反馈信息的探讨

文章简要阐述了反馈信息,论述了作文工作研究的意义及在作文写作中有效的信息反馈形式,提出了增强写作能力的可行措施。     

A class of count models and a new consistent test for the Poisson distribution

We define a class of count distributions which includes the Poisson as well as many alternative count models. Then the empirical probability generating function is utilized to construct a test for the Poisson distribution, which is consistent against this class of alternatives. The limit distribution of the test statistic is derived in case of a general underlying distribution, and efficiency considerations are addressed. A simulation study indicates that the new test is comparable in performance to more complicated omnibus tests.     

Lower bounds on expectations of positive L-statistics from without-replacement models

We consider samples drawn without replacement from finite populations. We establish optimal lower non-negative and upper non-positive bounds on the expectations of linear combinations of order statistics centered about the population mean in units generated by the population central absolute moments of various orders. We also specify the general results for important examples of sample extremes, Gini mean differences and sample range. The paper completes the results of Papadatos and Rychlik [2004. Bounds on expectations of L-statistics from without replacement samples. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 124, 317–336], where sharp negative lower and positive upper bounds on the expectations of the combinations were presented for the without-replacement samples.     

论奥斯古德对昆明高峣社区的人类学研究

1938年夏天,美国年轻学者科尼利尔斯·奥斯古德为了履行与燕京大学的合作计划,不远万里来到滇池西岸一个名不见经传的小村庄调查.1961年,他开启尘封的笔记本,整理旧资料,补充新文献,完成了<旧中国的农村生活:对云南高峣的社区研究>.70年过去,重温科尼利尔斯·奥斯古德的研究历程,我们仍会从中获得许多有益的启示.     

Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney test for stratified samples and Efron's paradox dice

Two-treatment multi-center clinical trials are the most common type of clinical trials in practice. The aim of this paper is to discuss a curious property of certain standard nonparametric procedures used in the analysis of such clinical trials. Different analyses of a simulated data example are presented, which lead to contrasting and surprising results. The source of the potentially misleading outcome is then explored while relating the simulated data with the concept of Efron's paradox dice and the notion of nontransitivity. With the root of the problem established, an alternate nonparametric method from the literature is shown to address the problem. Finally, pointing out an interpretational concern of using the alternate procedure, a modification to this procedure is also suggested and corresponding theoretical results are presented.     

Two-stage Huber estimation

In this paper we propose a new robust estimator in the context of two-stage estimation methods directed towards the correction of endogeneity problems in linear models. Our estimator is a combination of Huber estimators for each of the two stages, with scale corrections implemented using preliminary median absolute deviation estimators. In this way we obtain a two-stage estimation procedure that is an interesting compromise between concerns of simplicity of calculation, robustness and efficiency. This method compares well with other possible estimators such as two-stage least-squares (2SLS) and two-stage least-absolute-deviations (2SLAD), asymptotically and in finite samples. It is notably interesting to deal with contamination affecting more heavily the distribution tails than a few outliers and not losing as much efficiency as other popular estimators in that case, e.g. under normality. An additional originality resides in the fact that we deal with random regressors and asymmetric errors, which is not often the case in the literature on robust estimators.     

Bias Correction in the Dynamic Panel Data Model with a Nonscalar Disturbance Covariance Matrix

Approximation formulae are developed for the bias of ordinary and generalized Least Squares Dummy Variable (LSDV) estimators in dynamic panel data models. Results from Kiviet [Kiviet, J. F. (1995), on bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models, J. Econometrics68:53-78; Kiviet, J. F. (1999), Expectations of expansions for estimators in a dynamic panel data model: some results for weakly exogenous regressors, In: Hsiao, C., Lahiri, K., Lee, L-F., Pesaran, M. H., eds., Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variables, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 199-225] are extended to higher-order dynamic panel data models with general covariance structure. The focus is on estimation of both short- and long-run coefficients. The results show that proper modelling of the disturbance covariance structure is indispensable. The bias approximations are used to construct bias corrected estimators which are then applied to quarterly data from 14 European Union countries. Money demand functions for M1, M2 and M3 are estimated for the EU area as a whole for the period 1991: I-1995: IV. Significant spillovers between countries are found reflecting the dependence of domestic money demand on foreign developments. The empirical results show that in general plausible long-run effects are obtained by the bias corrected estimators. Moreover, finite sample bias, although of moderate magnitude, is present underlining the importance of more refined estimation techniques. Also the efficiency gains by exploiting the heteroscedasticity and cross-correlation patterns between countries are sometimes considerable.     

Generalized Laplacian approximations in Bayesian inference

This paper presents a new Laplacian approximation to the posterior density of η = g(θ). It has a simpler analytical form than that described by Leonard et al. (1989). The approximation derived by Leonard et al. requires a conditional information matrix R_η to be positive definite for every fixed η. However, in many cases, not all R_η are positive definite. In such cases, the computations of their approximations fail, since the approximation cannot be normalized. However, the new approximation may be modified so that the corresponding conditional information matrix can be made positive definite for every fixed η. In addition, a Bayesian procedure for contingency-table model checking is provided. An example of cross-classification between the educational level of a wife and fertility-planning status of couples is used for explanation. Various Laplacian approximations are computed and compared in this example and in an example of public school expenditures in the context of Bayesian analysis of the multiparameter Fisher-Behrens problem.     

被遮蔽的"文革"叙事--从《玫瑰门》评论小史谈起

<玫瑰门>是铁凝20世纪80年代后期一部以"文革"为背景的重要作品,但从<玫瑰门>的评论小史可以看到,80年代后半期以来,评论界对"文革"主题的忽略与遮蔽是普遍的.其中对抽象人性的偏爱,导致评论界对铁凝等一些小说家揭开"文革"政治对人性阴暗面的催生和放大,与人性固有之丑陋的合谋真相这一努力,大多视而不见.这一情形与80年代中期开始形成的当代文学观密不可分,也与"瞻前"而非"顾后"的社会文化心理有着内在的联系.