Prior Density Selection as a Particular Case of Bayesian Model Selection: A Predictive Approach

A Bayesian model consists of two elements: a sampling model and a prior density. The problem of selecting a prior density is nothing but the problem of selecting a Bayesian model where the sampling model is fixed. A predictive approach is used through a decision problem where the loss function is the squared L ² distance between the sampling density and the posterior predictive density, because the aim of the method is to choose the prior that provides a posterior predictive density as good as possible. An algorithm is developed for solving the problem; this algorithm is based on Lavine's linearization technique.     

A Note on Bayesian Analyses of Capture–Recapture Data with Perfect Recaptures

The present article deals with the problem of misspecifying the disturbance-covariance matrix as scalar, when it is locally non scalar. We consider a family of shrinkage estimators based on OLS estimator and compare its asymptotic properties with the properties of OLS estimator. We proposed a similar family of estimators based on FGLS and compared its asymptotic properties with the shrinkage estimator based on OLS under a Pitman's drift process. The effect of misspecifying the disturbances covariance matrix was analyzed with the help of a numerical simulation.     

Bernstein–von Mises Theorem for M|M|1 Queue

The article deals with Bernstein–von Mises theorem, for the arrival process in a M | M |1 queue.     

Predictive Influence of Unavailable Values of Future Explanatory Variables in a Linear Model

We consider an approach to prediction in linear model when values of the future explanatory variables are unavailable, we predict a future response y ^f at a future sample point x ^f when some components of x ^f are unavailable. We consider both the cases where x ^f are dependent and independent but normally distributed. A Taylor expansion is used to derive an approximation to the predictive density, and the influence of missing future explanatory variables (the loss or discrepancy) is assessed using the Kullback–Leibler measure of divergence. This discrepancy is compared in different scenarios including the situation where the missing variables are dropped entirely.     

Some properties of the relative squared error approach to linear regression analysis

In order to obtain optimal estimators in a generalized linear regression model we apply the minimax principle to the relative squared error. It turns out that this approach is equivalent to the application of the minimax principle to the absolute squared error when an ellipsoidal prior information set is given. We discuss the admissibility of these minimax estimators. Furthermore, a close relation to a Bayesian approach is derived.     

Can Relaxation of Beliefs Rationalize the Winner's Curse?: An Experimental Study

We use a second‐price common‐value auction, called the maximal game, to experimentally study whether the winner's curse (WC) can be explained by models which retain best‐response behavior but allow for inconsistent beliefs. We compare behavior in a regular version of the maximal game, where the WC can be explained by inconsistent beliefs, to behavior in versions where such explanations are less plausible. We find little evidence of differences in behavior. Overall, our study casts a serious doubt on theories that posit the WC is driven by beliefs.     

Individuals' Beliefs about the Etiology of Same-Sex Sexual Orientation

We examined the relationships between beliefs about the etiology of having a same-sex sexual orientation, sexual prejudice, and support for gay-relevant legislation using the justification-suppression model of prejudice as our theoretical foundation. Results indicated that more belief that a same-sex sexual orientation was due to nurture factors predicted less support for gay-relevant legislation, and that this relationship was mediated by levels of sexual prejudice. The opposite pattern was found for belief that a same-sex sexual orientation was due to nature factors. This suggests that beliefs about the etiology of sexual orientation may serve as justification (or suppression) factors in the expression of prejudice toward gay men and lesbians.     

Health Beliefs and Attitudes: A Comparison Between Turkey and Palestine

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to identify the beliefs and attitudes that influence health-related behavior while comparing two countries that can have different political and economic structures. This study also gathers both Turkish and Palestinian citizens' beliefs and attitudes towards health determinants. To assess and compare citizens' attitudes toward health care and health determinants a total of 4,100 questionnaires were distributed, whereas 2,600 were distributed in Turkey, and another 1,500 questionnaires in the Palestine. According to the research, the individuals surveyed in Turkey noted that smoking, stress, and getting access to a medical institution were noted as the most influential determinants which affect their health; whereas, the people of Palestine thought that income status, and educational levels were the most influential factors in health. In addition, it was found that there were some statistically significant differences between participants' responses in Turkey and Palestine; however, what both samples shared was that economic factors were an important factor affecting health beliefs and attitudes, regardless of where a participant lived. Finally, comparisons and future recommendations are made to improve health-related beliefs, attitudes and behaviors in both countries.     

Risk Perceptions,General Environmental Beliefs,and Willingness to Address Climate Change

The research reported here examines the relationship between risk perceptions and willingness to address climate change. The data are a national sample of 1225 mail surveys that include measures of risk perceptions and knowledge tied to climate change, support for voluntary and government actions to address the problem, general environmental beliefs, and demographic variables. Risk perceptions matter in predicting behavioral intentions. Risk perceptions are not a surrogate for general environmental beliefs, but have their own power to account for behavioral intentions. There are four secondary conclusions. First, behavioral intentions regarding climate change are complex and intriguing. People are neither nonbelievers who will take no initiatives themselves and oppose all government efforts, nor are they believers who promise both to make personal efforts and to vote for every government proposal that promises to address climate change. Second, there are separate demographic sources for voluntary actions compared with voting intentions. Third, recognizing the causes of global warming is a powerful predictor of behavioral intentions independent from believing that climate change will happen and have bad consequences. Finally, the success of the risk perception variables to account for behavioral intentions should encourage greater attention to risk perceptions as independent variables. Risk perceptions and knowledge, however, share the stage with general environmental beliefs and demographic characteristics. Although related, risk perceptions, knowledge, and general environmental beliefs are somewhat independent predictors of behavioral intentions.