Estimation and Prediction in the Presence of Spatial Confounding for Spatial Linear Models

In studies that produce data with spatial structure, it is common that covariates of interest vary spatially in addition to the error. Because of this, the error and covariate are often correlated. When this occurs, it is difficult to distinguish the covariate effect from residual spatial variation. In an i.i.d. normal error setting, it is well known that this type of correlation produces biased coefficient estimates, but predictions remain unbiased. In a spatial setting, recent studies have shown that coefficient estimates remain biased, but spatial prediction has not been addressed. The purpose of this paper is to provide a more detailed study of coefficient estimation from spatial models when covariate and error are correlated and then begin a formal study regarding spatial prediction. This is carried out by investigating properties of the generalized least squares estimator and the best linear unbiased predictor when a spatial random effect and a covariate are jointly modelled. Under this setup, we demonstrate that the mean squared prediction error is possibly reduced when covariate and error are correlated.     

A skew logistic distribution as an alternative to the model of van Staden and King

The logistic distribution is a simple distribution possessing many useful properties and has been used extensively for analyzing growth. Recently, van Staden and King proposed a quantile-based skew logistic distribution. In this paper, we introduce an alternative skew logistic distribution. We then establish recurrence relations for the computation of the single and product moments of order statistics from the standard skew logistic distribution by using the moments of order statistics from the standard half logistic distribution. These enable an efficient computation of means, variances and covariances of order statistics from the skew logistic distibution for all sample sizes. The results become useful in determining the best linear unbiased estimators of the location and scale paramters of the skew logistic distribution. Finally, we provide an example to illustrate the usefulness of the developed model and then compare its fit with that provided by the model of van Staden and King.     

Ridge estimator with correlated errors and two-stage ridge estimator under inequality restrictions

Liew (1976a Liew, C.K. (1976a). A two-stage least-squares estimation with inequality restrictions on parameters. Rev. Econ. Stat. LVIII(2):234–238.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) introduced generalized inequality constrained least squares (GICLS) estimator and inequality constrained two-stage and three-stage least squares estimators by reducing primal–dual relation to problem of Dantzig and Cottle (1967 Dantzig, G.B., Cottle, R.W. (1967). Positive (semi-) definite matrices and mathematical programming. In: Abadie, J., ed. Nonlinear Programming (pp. 55–73). Amsterdam: North Holland Publishing Co. [Google Scholar]), Cottle and Dantzig (1974 Cottle, R.W., Dantzig, G.B. (1974). Complementary pivot of mathematical programming. In: Dantzig, G.B., Eaves, B.C., eds. Studies in OptimizationVol. 10. Washington: Mathematical Association of America. [Google Scholar]) and solving with Lemke (1962 Lemke, C.E. (1962). A method of solution for quadratic programs. Manage. Sci. 8(4):442–453.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) algorithm. The purpose of this article is to present inequality constrained ridge regression (ICRR) estimator with correlated errors and inequality constrained two-stage and three-stage ridge regression estimators in the presence of multicollinearity. Untruncated variance–covariance matrix and mean square error are derived for the ICRR estimator with correlated errors, and its superiority over the GICLS estimator is examined via Monte Carlo simulation.     

Estimating Spatial Autocorrelation With Sampled Network Data

Spatial autocorrelation is a parameter of importance for network data analysis. To estimate spatial autocorrelation, maximum likelihood has been popularly used. However, its rigorous implementation requires the whole network to be observed. This is practically infeasible if network size is huge (e.g., Facebook, Twitter, Weibo, WeChat, etc.). In that case, one has to rely on sampled network data to infer about spatial autocorrelation. By doing so, network relationships (i.e., edges) involving unsampled nodes are overlooked. This leads to distorted network structure and underestimated spatial autocorrelation. To solve the problem, we propose here a novel solution. By temporarily assuming that the spatial autocorrelation is small, we are able to approximate the likelihood function by its first-order Taylor’s expansion. This leads to the method of approximate maximum likelihood estimator (AMLE), which further inspires the development of paired maximum likelihood estimator (PMLE). Compared with AMLE, PMLE is computationally superior and thus is particularly useful for large-scale network data analysis. Under appropriate regularity conditions (without assuming a small spatial autocorrelation), we show theoretically that PMLE is consistent and asymptotically normal. Numerical studies based on both simulated and real datasets are presented for illustration purpose.     

数据随机缺失下分位数回归模型的诱导光滑估计法

在数据随机缺失的分位数回归模型中,运用诱导光滑思想构造光滑的估计方程,得到了回归参数的诱导光滑估计及渐近协方差估计。接着证明了诱导光滑估计的渐近正态性质,并给出诱导光滑估计及其渐近协方差估计的算法。模拟研究表明新方法在有限样本中表现出色。     

人口数目估计中的独立双系统估计量研究

利用存在统计相依关系的两份人口登记名单构造的非独立双系统估计量是目前估计总体实际人口数的前沿方法。该估计量由最初用于估计一个区域内的野生动物数目的捕获-再捕获模型移植而来。非独立双系统估计量的一个明显缺陷是低估总体实际人口数。用独立双系统估计量替代非独立双系统估计量属于人口数目估计领域的理论创新研究。采用数理分析与实证分析相结合的方法研究独立双系统估计量及其方差估计量。为便于读者理解,通过一个实证案例全面演示了独立双系统估计量的计算过程。研究表明,独立双系统估计量所估计的人口数平均接近于实际人口数,建议在未来人口数目估计中应用独立双系统估计量。     

Analysis of censored longitudinal data with skewness and a terminal event

In HIV/AIDS study, the measurements viral load are often highly skewed and left-censored because of a lower detection limit. Furthermore, a terminal event (e.g., death) stops the follow-up process. The time to terminal event may be dependent on the viral load measurements. In this article, we present a joint analysis framework to model the censored longitudinal data with skewness and a terminal event process. The estimation is carried out by adaptive Gaussian quadrature techniques in SAS procedure NLMIXED. The proposed model is evaluated by a simulation study and is applied to the motivating Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS).     

Restricted ridge estimator in the logistic regression model

It is known that when the multicollinearity exists in the logistic regression model, variance of maximum likelihood estimator is unstable. As a remedy, Schaefer et al. presented a ridge estimator in the logistic regression model. Making use of the ridge estimator, when some linear restrictions are also present, we introduce a restricted ridge estimator in the logistic regression model. Statistical properties of this newly defined estimator will be studied and comparisons are done in the simulation study in the sense of mean squared error criterion. A real-data example and a simulation study are introduced to discuss the performance of this estimator.     

Exact inference for exponential distribution with multiply Type-I censored data

In this paper, we focus on exact inference for exponential distribution under multiple Type-I censoring, which is a general form of Type-I censoring and represents that the units are terminated at different times. The maximum likelihood estimate of mean parameter is calculated. Further, the distribution of maximum likelihood estimate is derived and it yields an exact lower confidence limit for the mean parameter. Based on a simulation study, we conclude that the exact limit outperforms the bootstrap limit in terms of the coverage probability and average limit. Finally, a real dataset is analyzed for illustration.