“麦克米伦缺口”分析及中国式治理

中小企业有效融资是世界性难题,全球范围内＂麦克米伦缺口＂依然十分突出。在中国,＂麦克米伦缺口＂有着不同于其他国家和地区的特征和成因,因此也产生了针对这些特殊性的中国式治理。虽然目前的各种治理方法还略微粗糙,却有效地缓解了困扰已久的中小企业融资窘境。随着治理＂麦克米伦缺口＂各种探索的持续深入,中国金融界在不久的将来或许就能全面破解这一世界性的难题。     

数控系统的抗干扰技术

本文从提高数控系统的可靠性出发，阐述了数控系统抗干扰设计的必要性。具体讨论了数控系统中一些实用而有效的抗干扰技术。     

Environmental regulatory influence and product innovation: the contingency effects of organizational characteristics

This paper examines the relationship between environmental regulatory influence and product innovation in a multi-industry sample of manufacturing organizations. Our theory argues that the influence of environmental regulation on the level of product innovation in a manufacturing organization is at least partially contingent on the organization's internal characteristics—in particular, its structural flexibility and production process flexibility. Hypotheses are derived from our theory and tested, and the results are consistent with the conclusion that structural flexibility and production process flexibility moderate the environmental regulatory influence–product innovation relationship. Whether environmental regulation inhibits or promotes product innovation seems to depend at least in part on certain internal features of an organization. We discuss implications of our results for future organization studies research on environmental regulation, and for research on other types of external constraints on organizational performance.     

Probabilistic Reliability Modeling for Oil Exploration & Production (E&P) Facilities in the Tallgrass Prairie Preserve

The aging domestic oil production infrastructure represents a high risk to the environment because of the type of fluids being handled (oil and brine) and the potential for accidental release of these fluids into sensitive ecosystems. Currently, there is not a quantitative risk model directly applicable to onshore oil exploration and production (E&P) facilities. We report on a probabilistic reliability model created for onshore exploration and production (E&P) facilities. Reliability theory, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), and event trees were used to develop the model estimates of the failure probability of typical oil production equipment. Monte Carlo simulation was used to translate uncertainty in input parameter values to uncertainty in the model output. The predicted failure rates were calibrated to available failure rate information by adjusting probability density function parameters used as random variates in the Monte Carlo simulations. The mean and standard deviation of normal variate distributions from which the Weibull distribution characteristic life was chosen were used as adjustable parameters in the model calibration. The model was applied to oil production leases in the Tallgrass Prairie Preserve, Oklahoma. We present the estimated failure probability due to the combination of the most significant failure modes associated with each type of equipment (pumps, tanks, and pipes). The results show that the estimated probability of failure for tanks is about the same as that for pipes, but that pumps have much lower failure probability. The model can provide necessary equipment reliability information for proactive risk management at the lease level by providing quantitative information to base allocation of maintenance resources to high-risk equipment that will minimize both lost production and ecosystem damage.     

人的可靠性与人为差错

分析论述了影响人的可靠性的因素 ,提出了提高人的可靠性、减少人为差错的措施和方法。     

The Impact of Product Returns and Retailer's Service Investment on Manufacturer's Channel Strategies*

We study the distribution channel decision of a manufacturer who considers whether to add an online channel (direct channel) to its brick‐and‐mortar retailer (indirect channel). The retailer faces the opportunity to invest in store assistance to help consumers choose products and thus reduce product returns. Special attention is given to the impact of product returns and retailer's store assistance investment on manufacturer's dual channel decision. We examine conditions under which the manufacturer uses dual channels and how various relevant factors affect its channel decision under two settings, depending on whether the retailer has its own online store or not. When the retailer does not have its online store, we find that (i) the addition of the direct channel raises the wholesale price; (ii) the direct channel addition hurts the retailer if the nonreplacement rate is low; (iii) the manufacturer has a lower incentive to add the direct channel when the retailer's service cost is lower or its returns reduction rate from service investment is higher; and (iv) the manufacturer should treat its own returns handling cost as a key factor in its channel structure decision. In addition, when the retailer operates an online store, we find that the manufacturer may have an incentive to add a direct channel such that both firms own direct channels.     

数控机床可靠性分析方法

利用故障频次主次图、故障比重比主次图及危害度的综合分析方法,对所采集的某系列加工中心现场故障信息进行了统计分析,找出了其可靠性的薄弱环节,进一步明确了加工中心可靠性工作的改进方向,为其他机电产品的可靠性研究提供了较实用的方法。     

绍兴《姒氏世谱》的史料价值

世谱、宗谱、家谱,总称谱谍,是中华民族传统文化的重要组成部分,它与正史、方志共同构成了中华民族历史的三大支柱。此文着重分析了绍兴《姒氏世谱》的史料价值,认为该谱所载史事与正史、地志基本一致,对先人业绩并无夸张过誉之辞,所以可靠性较大;该谱叙述世系清楚完整,为他书所未见,可补正史、地志之缺;该谱还蕴含人口学、民俗学、社会学、民族学方面的资料,更可拓宽越文化研究的领域。由此可见,搜集、整理和研究大禹后裔宗谱,任务急迫,意义重大。     

人的因素研究中变量的选控与可靠性分析

人的因素研究是实验室研究成果在实际生活中的应用。在研究过程中 ,为使结果具有可靠性和精确度 ,并在生活中得到应用 ,需要对自变量、因变量及无关变量进行有效选控。这是人的因素研究成败的关键所在。     

基于Monte Carlo方法的机械可靠性仿真

介绍了可靠性设计与Monte Carlo方法的基本原理,并提出了一种基于Monte Carlo的可靠性仿真方法.应用该方法可以在样本数据有限的情况下,求解机械零部件的可靠度及其置信水平.给出了应用该方法分析工程机械轮胎可靠性的一个算例.