重点产业政策对出口再分配的影响

基于2000-2013年海关数据与各省份五年规划数据,本文考察了重点产业政策对出口再分配的影响机制。研究发现,政府对特定行业的支持会引致产品维度不同类型企业间的出口再分配;产品市场获得支持会吸引潜在出口商参与出口、争夺市场份额,也会吸引在位出口商将部分业务转移到获得政策支持的行业、进行业务试探;同时,市场竞争的加剧也会加速淘汰竞争力较差的中小企业,促进产品维度新旧企业的更新换代。进一步,本文通过对比不同类型企业的出口动态,考察了重点产业政策对企业出口平均单价与产品质量的影响,发现政府对特定行业的支持会降低出口市场的准入门槛,导致更多的低价低质企业进入市场。可见,适度的政策支持有助于产品市场内企业的更新换代,激发市场活力;但政策的制定必须兼顾企业更新换代过程中的质量攀升机制,才能充分发挥其对出口再分配的优化作用,推动对外贸易的可持续发展。     

Quality and Reliability in Top-event Estimation: Quantitative Fault Tree Analysis in Case of Dependent Events

This article deals with the quantitative Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and the estimation method of the top-event in case of dependent events. It aims at addressing two main issues: (1) the decomposition of variability for the top-event according to several error components linked to the estimation of the top-event and sources of internal and external variations for a complex system; and (2) the definition of a Performance Measure Independent of Adjustment in order to set the quality of the top-event as a complex measure of the system failure. A simulated study applied to the health system is also carried out.     

Bayesian estimation of reliability using time-to-failure distribution of parametric degradation models

This paper focusses on computing the Bayesian reliability of components whose performance characteristics (degradation – fatigue and cracks) are observed during a specified period of time. Depending upon the nature of degradation data collected, we fit a monotone increasing or decreasing function for the data. Since the components are supposed to have different lifetimes, the rate of degradation is assumed to be a random variable. At a critical level of degradation, the time to failure distribution is obtained. The exponential and power degradation models are studied and exponential density function is assumed for the random variable representing the rate of degradation. The maximum likelihood estimator and Bayesian estimator of the parameter of exponential density function, predictive distribution, hierarchical Bayes approach and robustness of the posterior mean are presented. The Gibbs sampling algorithm is used to obtain the Bayesian estimates of the parameter. Illustrations are provided for the train wheel degradation data.     

Risk Perception and Information Processing: The Development and Validation of a Questionnaire to Assess Self‐Reported Information Processing

The role of information processing in understanding people's responses to risk information has recently received substantial attention. One limitation of this research concerns the unavailability of a validated questionnaire of information processing. This article presents two studies in which we describe the development and validation of the Information‐Processing Questionnaire to meet that need. Study 1 describes the development and initial validation of the questionnaire. Participants were randomized to either a systematic processing or a heuristic processing condition after which they completed a manipulation check and the initial 15‐item questionnaire and again two weeks later. The questionnaire was subjected to factor reliability and validity analyses on both measurement times for purposes of cross‐validation of the results. A two‐factor solution was observed representing a systematic processing and a heuristic processing subscale. The resulting scale showed good reliability and validity, with the systematic condition scoring significantly higher on the systematic subscale and the heuristic processing condition significantly higher on the heuristic subscale. Study 2 sought to further validate the questionnaire in a field study. Results of the second study corresponded with those of Study 1 and provided further evidence of the validity of the Information‐Processing Questionnaire. The availability of this information‐processing scale will be a valuable asset for future research and may provide researchers with new research opportunities.     

情绪化进食量表在高校大学生中应用的信效度检验——以黄山学院为例

为考察情绪化进食量表在黄山学院中的适用情况,采用EES对600名黄山学院大学生进行施测,同时施测正负性情绪量表（PANAS）,采用探索性因素分析、验证性因素分析、相关分析、信度检验、方差分析进行研究。结果表明：（1）情绪化进食量表的正式量表包括17项条目;（2）经探索性因素分析发现中文版EES由4个因子构成,共解释63.934%的方差变异;（3）验证性因素分析表明量表的4个因素结构模型拟合良好;（4）情绪化进食量表的信效度良好,信度分析表明总量表的α系数为0.879;（5）女生在积极情绪方面显著高于男生,在抑郁情绪、焦虑情绪、敌对情绪3个因子上差异不显著。总之,EES中文版具有良好的信度和效度,可以作为测量情绪加工的有效工具在黄山学院大学生中使用。     

Comparison of Interval Estimators of Pr(X < Y) in the Two-parameter Exponential Distribution

We consider confidence intervals for the stress–strength reliability Pr(X< Y) in the two-parameter exponential distribution. We have derived the Bayesian highest posterior density interval using non-informative prior distributions. We have compared its performance with the intervals based on the generalized pivot variable intervals in terms of their coverage probabilities and expected lengths. Our simulation study shows that the Bayesian interval performs better according to the criteria used, especially when the sample sizes are very small. An example is given.     

产品质量内部性问题的政府管制

文章引入了对产品质量的分析,将产品质量和数量作为并列的因素进行考察,着重分析了产品质量的内部性问题,并进一步提出了单纯的较大的交易成本和单纯的不对称信息,都不能解释产品质量内部性问题产生的根源,与信息不对称紧密联系的较大的交易成本才是其根源。如何降低这种交易成本就成为政府对产品质量内部性进行管制,提高消费者福利水平的管制重点。     

产品差异化对市场结构的影响分析——基于演化经济学的观点

以双占垄断为例,产品差异化对市场结构的影响具有以下几个方面:(1)完全垄断可能是同质产品竞争的结果;(2)尽管产品差异化不能排除完全垄断的存在,但是从长期看,它极大增加了厂商共存的可能性;(3)产品差异化程度越大,双占寡头的结构越稳定。     

A Probabilistic Dealing Strategy

A probabilistic dealing strategy is proposed which allows all premium brands in an established market to earn nonnegative profits without cooperation. Following the strategy, brands take turns attracting deal-responsive customers. Relative to a reactive competitive strategy, the proposed strategy improves the positions of all premium brands. With use of the strategy, average deal sizes are positively related to a brand's market share, the proportion of quality conscious customers, the proportion of informed customers, the span of regular prices in a market, and the range of customers' acceptable prices.     

SOME THOUGHTS ON THE RELEVANCE OF THE WORK OF D. W. WINNICOTT FOR PRESENT DAY SOCIAL WORK PRACTICE WITH ADULTS

The work of D. W. Winnicott is of topical relevance and value to current social work students who are learning to work with adult service users. Winnicott's theories and ideas on essential matters like reliability and proper listening are raised, together with issues of ambivalence, and some implications for inter‐professional practice. Winnicott is clear, accessible and meaningful in practice terms, which is what social work students crave.