偏向性技术进步的测算与分析

 本文构建了一套系统测算要素偏向性技术进步的方法,不仅可以计算出每年资本增强型和劳动增强型技术进步各自的速率和技术进步的整体偏向性,而且还深化了全要素生产率的分析。使用这一方法对我国1991-2011年经济增长过程中技术进步偏向性的测算表明,这一时期我国劳动的生产效率逐年提升,而资本的生产效率却在1995年以后逐年下降,技术进步表现为资本使用和劳动节约型;相对于经济增长率,我国1995年以后大部分年份的全要素生产率的增长率都很低,凸现了我国技术创新的能力不足、经济增长主要依靠要素投入推动的特征。     

纳入能源环境因素的中国全要素生产率再估算

能源环境约束下的经济增长问题直接推动了全要素生产率的深层次研究.本文基于1995-2010年省际面板数据,利用全局曼奎斯特-卢恩伯格指数法对中国全要素生产率进行再估算,并对其影响因素和收敛性特征进行实证分析.结果发现:纳入能源环境因素的全要素生产率年均增长幅度十分有限,东中西地区呈现递减特征,且增长来源各异;规模因素、管理因素、科技因素、涉外因素等对TFP变化存在正向影响,结构因素存在负向影响;TFP核密度分布呈现双峰特征,与线性回归东部、西部两大地带俱乐部收敛现象互为验证.     

美学与艺术也是一种生产力

人们对"生产力"的认识,是随着人类文明的发展和产业结构的调整而不断深入的。在以农、林、牧、渔为代表的第一产业占主导地位的前工业时代,人的体力和经验是最为重要的生产力要素;在以机器制造业为代表的第二产业占主导地位的工业时代,科学和技术跃居于生产力要素的首位;而在以服务业为代表的第三产业占主导地位的后工业时代,美学和艺术作为生产力的要素也便具有了越来越重要的地位。这种新的生产力要素主要是通过三种途径加以实现的:首先是制造直接用于审美欣赏的精神产品,其次是这种产品的衍生物,最后是实用产品中的审美附加值。     

以人为本:生产力发展的起始点和归宿点

作者指出,人的需要是生产力得以发展的内在动力;人的潜能是生产力发展的决定性因素;人的全面发展是生产力发展的根本性标志和最终目的;人的主体性则是生产力标准的内在灵魂;以人为本既是生产力发展的始点,又是生产力发展的终点,是科学的生产力发展观。     

Integrated Assessment of the Recent Economic History of Ecuador

This paper presents an application of the Multiple-Scale Integrated Assessment of Societal Metabolism to the recent economic history of Ecuador. The most relevant phases are: (1) a single commodity export oriented economy; (2) an import-substituting industrialization triggered by the oil-boom; (3) the current critical situation. This study centers on the crucial changes that took place in 1970s in relation to the oil boom. Changes are described using economic variables and biophysical variables (both extensive and intensive referring to different hierarchical levels). These two parallel readings are combined at the end in the discussion section.     

生产率、资本密集度对企业国际化模式选择决策的影响

加入WTO以来,中国在全球贸易中占据了举足轻重的地位,其中出口、对外投资是中国企业国际化的主要模式。为了考察企业生产率与资本密集度对国际化模式选择的影响,本文利用2005-2007年《中国工业企业数据库》和《境外投资企业（机构）名录》,按非出口、仅出口、仅投资和既出口又投资将全部企业划分为四种国际市场参与模式,使用多值Logit模型及相对风险概率对企业国际化模式选择进行检验。结果表明：较高生产率的企业更可能选择对外投资;劳动密集型企业更可能出口,资本密集型企业更可能对外投资;不同地区企业的生产率与资本密集度对企业国际化模式选择的影响具有差异。最后本文进一步从对外投资经营形式角度对对外直接投资的“引致出口效应”进行了解释。     

Local likelihood tracking of fault lines and boundaries

We suggest locally parametric methods for estimating curves, such as boundaries of density supports or fault lines in response surfaces, in a variety of spatial problems. The methods are based on spatial approximations to the local likelihood that the curve passes through a given point in the plane, as a function of that point. The local likelihood might be a regular likelihood computed locally, with kernel weights (e.g. in the case of support boundary estimation) or a local version of a likelihood ratio statistic (e.g. in fault line estimation). In either case, the local likelihood surface represents a function which is relatively large near the target curve, and relatively small elsewhere. Therefore, the curve may be estimated as a ridge line of the surface; we require only a numerical algorithm for tracking the projection of a ridge into the plane. This approach offers several potential advantages over alternative methods. First, the local (log-)likelihood surface can be graphed, and the degree of 'ridginess' assessed visually, to determine how the level of local smoothing should be varied in different spatial locations in order to emphasize the ridge and hence the curve adequately. Secondly, the local likelihood surface does not need to be computed in anything like its entirety; once we have a reasonable approximation to a point on the curve we may track it by numerically 'walking along' the ridge line. Thirdly, the method is appropriate without change for many different types of spatial explanatory variables—gridded, stochastic or otherwise. Three examples are explored in detail; fault lines in response surfaces and in intensity or density surfaces, and boundaries of supports of probability densities.     

Explaining a productive decade

This paper analyzes the sources of U.S. productivity growth in recent years using both aggregate and industry-level data. We confirm the central role for information technology (IT) in the productivity revival during 1995–2000 and show that IT played a significant, though smaller, role after 2000. Productivity growth after 2000 appears to have been boosted by industry restructuring and cost cutting in response to profit pressures, an unlikely source of future strength. In addition, the incorporation of intangible capital into the growth accounting framework takes some of the luster off the performance of labor productivity since 2000 and makes the gain during 1995–2000 look larger than in the official data. Finally, we examine the outlook for trend growth in labor productivity; our estimate, though subject to much uncertainty, is centered at a year, faster than the lackluster pace that prevailed before 1995 but somewhat slower than the 1995–2006 average.     

Manufacturing Strategy: Testing the Cumulative Model in a Multiple Country Context*

This study statistically tests the cumulative model for the building of manufacturing capabilities by comparing and contrasting the manufacturing strategies of 265 North. American, 129 European, and 167 Korean factories by region. The cumulative model suggests that better performing competitors build one manufacturing capability upon another in a sequential, cumulative fashion—starting first with quality, followed by dependability, delivery, cost efficiency, flexibility, and lastly, innovation. The primary findings of this exploratory study are as follows: (1) the data yielded some evidence for the cumulative model, with the Korean data being the most supportive of the model; (2) North American, European, and Korean managers take different approaches to improved competitiveness; and (3) rather than focusing on one or two capabilities, better performing firms generally compete on the basis of multiple capabilities. That quality is not only at the base of the cumulative model but is often among the multiple capabilities shows the importance of quality management globally.