大学生职业选择匹配度量表的编制与估计

运用深度访谈和文献法初步编制条目,经过419份有效数据的预测和1680份有效数据的正式检测,构建出信度与效度均为合理的大学生职业选择匹配度量表。运用回归分析方法,建构职业选择影响因素权重等值和不等值条件下的匹配度估计模型,作为量化大学生职业选择与社会生活满意匹配度,服务提高大学生就业质量的操作分析工具。     

The development of a reliable change index and cutoff score for the SCORE-15

The Systemic Clinical Outcome and Routine Evaluation version 15 (SCORE-15) is a measure used to assess family-level change in family therapy. The SCORE-15 has been demonstrated to be a reliable and valid measure, with high clinical utility; however, the SCORE-15 lacks the ability to determine whether the change in family functioning during the course of therapy is clinically significant. This study aimed to establish a reliable change index (RCI) and clinical cutoff score so that researchers and clinicians can determine clinically significant change in family therapy. US samples of 71 clinical participants and 244 community participants completed the SCORE-15. Results indicated a cutoff score of 40.37 and an RCI of 9.52. Consequently, family members who improve their SCORE-15 score during the course of therapy by at least 9 points and who cross the threshold of 40 during the course of therapy are considered to have experienced clinically significant change.     

户籍差异与婚姻质量 ——基于中国家庭动态追踪调查数据的实证分析

近年来,随着经济的发展,地理空间距离对个人择偶选择的限制,伴随劳动力资源流动范围的扩大而逐步减小。本文使用中国家庭动态跟踪调查(CFPS)2016年数据,研究了户籍差异对婚姻质量的影响,结果发现:首先,异地结合的夫妻幸福感更强;其次,户籍差异对婚姻幸福度的影响因户口类型、东中西部地区及收入阶层而呈现结构性差异,具体表现在:非农户口的个人,嫁娶异地配偶,幸福感会增强;东中西部比较而言,婚姻的互补性对中西部地区的幸福感比较显著;而收入阶层越高,地域户籍差异对家庭幸福感的影响则越大,验证了双方事业、精神的互补性对主观幸福效用的增量作用。最后,文本采用倾向得分匹配法(PSM)和工具变量法解决内生性问题,加强了地域户籍差异影响婚姻幸福度结论的稳健性。     

A Corrected Pseudo-score Approach for Additive Hazards Model with Longitudinal Covariates Measured with Error

In medical studies, it is often of interest to characterize the relationship between a time-to-event and covariates, not only time-independent but also time-dependent. Time-dependent covariates are generally measured intermittently and with error. Recent interests focus on the proportional hazards framework, with longitudinal data jointly modeled through a mixed effects model. However, approaches under this framework depend on the normality assumption of the error, and might encounter intractable numerical difficulties in practice. This motivates us to consider an alternative framework, that is, the additive hazards model, about which little research has been done when time-dependent covariates are measured with error. We propose a simple corrected pseudo-score approach for the regression parameters with no assumptions on the distribution of the random effects and the error beyond those for the variance structure of the latter. The estimator has an explicit form and is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. We illustrate the method via simulations and by application to data from an HIV clinical trial.     

Older age and a higher EHRA score allow higher levels of frailty syndrome to be predicted in patients with atrial fibrillation

Background: There is no research that evaluates the relationship between the severity of the symptoms of atrial fibrillation (AF), the presence of frailty syndrome and acceptance of the illness.

Methods: The study included 132 patients aged 72.7?±?6.73 with diagnosed AF. The severity of the symptoms of AF was determined according to European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) guidelines, frailty syndrome was assessed using the Tilburg frailty indicator (TFI) and the acceptance of the illness was assessed using the acceptance of illness scale (AIS). A standard statistical comparison and multiple regression analysis using the stepwise method were performed.

Results: In patients with AF, frailty was 5.31?±?2.69 (TFI). Frailty syndrome was diagnosed in 59.8% of the AF patients who had a score of 7.17?±?1.72. A higher level of EHRA score was connected with a smaller degree of the acceptance of the illness p?=?0.0000. The multiple regression model indicated that age (p?=?0.0009) and the severity of the symptoms (p?=?0.0001) are important predictors of frailty syndrome.

Conclusions: There is a relationship between the presence of frailty syndrome and the intensity of the symptoms and the acceptance of AF. Age and the EHRA score permitted higher levels of frailty syndrome to be predicted.     

Monitoring parameter shift with Poisson integer-valued GARCH models

This study examines the statistical process control chart used to detect a parameter shift with Poisson integer-valued GARCH (INGARCH) models and zero-inflated Poisson INGARCH models. INGARCH models have a conditional mean structure similar to GARCH models and are well known to be appropriate to analyzing count data that feature overdispersion. Special attention is paid in this study to conditional and general likelihood ratio-based (CLR and GLR) CUSUM charts and the score function-based CUSUM (SFCUSUM) chart. The performance of each of the proposed methods is evaluated through a simulation study, by calculating their average run length. Our findings show that the proposed methods perform adequately, and that the CLR chart outperforms the GLR chart when there is an increased shift of parameters. Moreover, the use of the SFCUSUM chart in particular is found to lead to a lower false alarm rate than the use of the CLR chart.     

Is there a protective role of testosterone against high-grade prostate cancer? Incidence and severity of prostate cancer in 553 patients who underwent prostate biopsy: a prospective data register

This study investigated the role of testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) in prostate safety and cancer progression. A cohort of 553 patients, 42 treated and 162 untreated hypogonadal men, and 349 eugonadal men were included. Pathological analysis of prostate biopsies examining the incidence and severity of PCa revealed that: 16.7% of treated hypogonadal men had a positive biopsy, a Gleason score of ≤6 in 71.4% and >6 in 28.6% of men, a predominant score of 3 and tumour staging of II in 85.7% men; 51.9% of untreated hypogonadal men had a positive biopsy, a Gleason score of ≤6 in 40.5% and >6 in 59.5% men, a predominant score of 3 (77.4%) and tumour staging of II (41.7%) or III (40.5%); 37.8% of eugonadal men had a positive biopsy, a Gleason score of ≤6 in 42.4% and >6 in 57.6% of men, a predominant score of 3 (82.6%) and tumour staging of II (44.7%) or III (47.7%). The incidence of positive prostate biopsies was lowest in hypogonadal men receiving TRT, with significantly lower severity of PCa in terms of staging and grading in the same group. These results suggest that TRT might have a protective effect against high-grade PCa.     

Identification of longitudinal biomarkers for survival by a score test derived from a joint model of longitudinal and competing risks data

In this paper, we consider joint modelling of repeated measurements and competing risks failure time data. For competing risks time data, a semiparametric mixture model in which proportional hazards model are specified for failure time models conditional on cause and a multinomial model for the marginal distribution of cause conditional on covariates. We also derive a score test based on joint modelling of repeated measurements and competing risks failure time data to identify longitudinal biomarkers or surrogates for a time to event outcome in competing risks data.     

Prediction intervals for hypergeometric distributions

Abstract

The problem of constructing prediction intervals (PIs) for a future sample from a hypergeometric distribution is addressed. Simple closed-form approximate PIs based on the Wald approach, the joint sampling approach, and a fiducial approach are proposed and compared in terms of coverage probability and precision. Construction of the proposed PIs are illustrated using an example.     

大学生学习成绩等分组间的长期变动性研究

为了对大学生学习成绩的长期变动性进行研究,将某专业299名学生按第一学期成绩排名分为1个5等分组,再将他们按大学毕业成绩排名分为第2个5等分组,观察2个5等分组间人员的流动情况并据此构建大学期间学生在2个5等分组间的成绩转移矩阵;在此基础上分析了每个等分组的成绩转移情况;计算了平均5等分组间的流动率、停留在同一5等分组的比率;与“数学意义上的完美转移矩阵”指标进行比较的结论是该专业学生大学期间成绩变动性不大。