Truncated Poisson Regression for Time Series of Counts

We consider partial likelihood analysis of a truncated Poisson regression model for time series of counts. We focus our attention on the study of asymptotic theory for the maximum partial likelihood estimator of a vector of regression parameters. Simulations and data analysis integrate the presentation.     

Health Service Utilization and Expenditure of the Elderly in China

Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey, we employed counterfactual propensity score matching to examine the association between income and health service utilization and expenditure of the elderly in China. The results demonstrated that income did not differentiate whether the poor elderly in China visited a doctor when suffering an illness, but their expenditure on medical treatment was significantly associated with income. Subgroup analysis further indicated that the medical demands of female, older, and rural elderly were more likely to be reduced by their income compared with their counterparts.     

层次分析法在商业银行信息化绩效评价的应用

平衡计分卡（Balanced Scorecard）是一系列财务绩效衡量指标与非财务绩效衡量指标的综合体,它为管理层快速、全面、客观地考察企业的运营状况提供最为真实的依据。IT平衡计分卡是为实现商业银行信息化战略服务,关注商业银行信息化建设。正确评价商业银行信息部门的绩效水平的前提是建立科学、合理、可行的评价指标体系。采取层次分析法（Analytical Hierarchy Process,AHP）建立商业银行信息部门的绩效综合评价模型,能有效地反映出商业银行信息化的基本情况,抓住主要因素,以保证评价工作的全面性和可信度,同时评价指标易于操作。     

英语课堂听力焦虑的成因及其与四级听力成绩的关系

作为语言学习者心理因素之一的焦虑感对外语学习效果有着重要的影响。采用"大学英语听力课堂焦虑状况问卷"调查大学英语学生听力课堂的心理焦虑程度,分析造成听力焦虑的原因;并以调查数据为基础,探讨听力焦虑与四级听力成绩之间的关系。研究结果发现焦虑情绪在英语听力课堂普遍存在,英语课堂的听力焦虑对四级听力成绩产生负面影响。针对听力焦虑的成因,阐述缓解听力教学中学生焦虑心理的策略,从而获得改善听力教学的启示。     

Longitudinal profiles of bounded outcome scores as predictors for disease activity in rheumatoid arthritis patients: a joint modeling approach

A variety of statistical approaches have been suggested in the literature for the analysis of bounded outcome scores (BOS). In this paper, we suggest a statistical approach when BOSs are repeatedly measured over time and used as predictors in a regression model. Instead of directly using the BOS as a predictor, we propose to extend the approaches suggested in [16 E. Lesaffre, D. Rizopoulos, and R. Tsonaka, The logistics-transform for bounded outcome scores, Biostatistics 8 (2007), pp. 72–85. doi: 10.1093/biostatistics/kxj034[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar],21 M. Molas and E. Lesaffre, A comparison of the three random effects approaches to analyse repeated bounded outcome scores with an application in a stroke revalidation study, Stat. Med. 27 (2008), pp. 6612–6633. doi: 10.1002/sim.3432[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar],28 R. Tsonaka, D. Rizopoulos, and E. Lesaffre, Power and sample size calculations for discrete bounded outcome scores, Stat. Med. 25 (2006), pp. 4241–4252. doi: 10.1002/sim.2679[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]] to a joint modeling setting. Our approach is illustrated on longitudinal profiles of multiple patients’ reported outcomes to predict the current clinical status of rheumatoid arthritis patients by a disease activities score of 28 joints (DAS28). Both a maximum likelihood as well as a Bayesian approach is developed.     

Semi-parametric Efficient Inference for Heteroscedastic Semivarying-coefficient Models

Semivarying-coefficient models with heteroscedastic errors are frequently used in statistical modeling. When the error is conditional heteroskedastic, Ahmad, et al. (2005 Ahmad, I., Leelahanon, S., Li, Q. (2005). Efficient estimation of a semiparametric partially linear varying coefficient model. Ann. Statist. 33(1):258–283.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) proposed a general series method to obtain an efficient estimation. In this article we study the heteroscedastic semi-varying coefficient models with a nonparametric variance function, not only use the semi-parametric efficient normal approximation method to derive a family of semi-parametric efficient estimator, but also use the semi-parametric efficient empirical likelihood method to construct the efficient empirical likelihood confidence regions. The proposed estimators retain the double robustness feature of semi-parametric efficient estimator.     

中国高学历劳动者的教育匹配与收入回报

近十多年来,鉴于中国高等教育扩张对劳动力市场的影响,一些学者开始用经验数据研究劳动者与工作之间的教育匹配(尤其是过度教育)对收入回报的影响。但是,已有文献较少考虑过度教育的选择性问题,也很少对高学历劳动者进行专门研究。本文使用倾向值匹配的方法分析高学历劳动者的教育匹配与收入回报。研究发现,即使是在考虑了选择性之后,过度教育者的收入仍然显著低于适度教育者。同时,对家庭背景、学校出身、人力资本和劳动力市场四大影响因素的考察还发现,过度教育确实具有负向选择的特点,那些拥有较低人力资本和较差出身背景的人更容易发生过度教育。     

中国网民的政治价值观与网络抗争行为的限度

中国的市场化转型带来了政治价值观的变化,进而重塑着个体的政治参与行为,其中包括网络抗争行为。由于种种限制,互联网并不必然带来网络抗争,个人的政治价值观是重要的影响因素。基于全国性的概率抽样调查数据,本文首先构造了个人的政治价值观倾向得分,然后用广义倾向值匹配估算了政治价值观对批评政府官员或政策和讨论集体行动这两种网络抗争行为的响应函数和干预效应。结果显示,越趋向自由民主价值观,个人拥有这两种网络抗争经历的概率越高,且呈现强化趋势。但是,这种作用具有阈值效应,即自由民主价值观达到较高水平后,更高的自由民主价值观带来的网络抗争行为的发生概率反而更低。因此,除了来自政府和体制的外在限制,网络抗争还存在着内生于行动者本身的限制。本文通过实证研究证实了政治价值观对网络抗争行为产生的内在限制。     

Higher-order asymptotics under model misspecification

Most of the higher-order asymptotic results in statistical inference available in the literature assume model correctness. The aim of this paper is to develop higher-order results under model misspecification. The density functions to O(n^?3/2) of the robust score test statistic and the robust Wald test statistic are derived under the null hypothesis, for the scalar as well as the multiparameter case. Alternate statistics which are robust to O(n^?3/2) are also proposed.     

Generalized Score Test of Homogeneity Based on Correlated Random Effects Models

We present a family of tests based on correlated random effects models which provides a synthesis and a generalization of recent work on homogeneity testing. In these models each subject has a particular random effect, but the random effects between subjects are correlated. We derive the general form of the score statistic for testing that the random effects have a variance equal to 0. We apply this result to both parametric and semi-parametric models. In both cases we show that under certain conditions the score statistic has an asymptotic normal distribution. We consider several applications of this theory, including overdispersion, heterogeneity between groups, spatial correlations and genetic linkage.