Combining Economic Forecasts

A method for combining forecasts may or may not account for dependence and differing precision among forecasts. In this article we test a variety of such methods in the context of combining forecasts of GNP from four major econometric models. The methods include one in which forecasting errors are jointly normally distributed and several variants of this model as well as some simpler procedures and a Bayesian approach with a prior distribution based on exchangeability of forecasters. The results indicate that a simple average, the normal model with an independence assumption, and the Bayesian model perform better than the other approaches that are studied here.     

Assessing the Integrity of Community Organization and Administration Content in Field Practice

The effort to ensure that students acquire knowledge and skills in macro social work practice requires considerable attention in the face of stronger interests in micro practice on the part of students and their field instructors. This study evaluates the effectiveness of the field component at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill to provide learning opportunities for the development of macro practice skills and knowledge. Over 85% of the student respondents had responsibility for at least one macro practice activity during their first field placement. Although a majority of the macro practice assignments were related to organizational interventions and very few to community interventions, the study provides guidance for improving the teamwork of faculty and field instructors in an articulated approach to field learning.     

正确运用教学评价研究的新成果不断提高教学质量

通过对教师教学关键因素的探讨 ,提出了学生对教师教学质量的反馈评价 ,不仅对教师提高教学质量十分宝贵和重要 ,而且应该引起高等学校管理工作者的足够重视     

Assessing program impact using latent growth modeling: a primer for the evaluator

Latent growth modeling (LGM) has emerged as a flexible analytic technique for modeling change over time because it can describe developmental processes at both the inter- and intra-individual levels. The LGM method can also provide a means for testing the contribution of other variables in order to explain variability in growth trajectories. This paper didactically illustrates the use of LGM as an analytical tool in program evaluation. Specifically, a hypothetical evaluation of a high school drug prevention program was used to demonstrate: (a) how LGM can be used to assess the longitudinal impact of a prevention program by comparing treatment and control populations with respect to individual differences in initial status and in rate of change; and (b) how predictors of initial status (post-intervention) and growth selected on the basis of a particular program theory can be incorporated in the model to explain program impact. Some advantages and limitations of using LGM in program evaluation are highlighted.     

Building a worldwide evaluation community: past, present, and future

This article describes recent efforts to build a worldwide evaluation community. It notes events that led to an almost 200 percent growth in the number of regional and national evaluation organizations in slightly more than one year. Profiles are provided on the present status of many national and regional evaluation organizations that participated in the W.K. Kellogg Foundation-sponsored international evaluation meeting in Barbados, West Indies. Afterwards, the authors engage in a scenario planning exercise to picture alternatives of what the future of international evaluation might look like.     

基于PCA商业银行经济效益评价研究

多年以来，提高商业银行的经济效益一直都是中国政府、银行监管部门关注的焦点，也始终是中国金融问题得以解决的核心。文章阐述了经济效益的概念，并进一步提出商业银行经济效益的涵义，建立商业银行经济效益评价指标体系，运用主成分分析模型得出商业银行经济效益的评价结果并进行了相应地分析。     

财产保险火灾风险评价方法与标准制定的研究

财产保险火灾风险评价方法及其标准的制定在我国处于空白状态。根据安全系统工程学的思想，提出了基于财产保险的建筑火灾风险评价指标体系的建立方法，利用层次分析方法确定各指标的权重，并根据科学性和操作性的原则对指标的评价尺度进行了划分；在此基础上得出了建筑火灾风险综合分值评分表和核保和费率浮动方法。结果表明:利用层次分析方法确定各指标权重的方法是比较科学的，权重分布比较符合实际情况。结果显示:基于安全系统工程学思想的方法，可以为火灾保险国家标准的制定提供帮助。     

利用Excel实现"成绩综合评价"的程序化

将教务管理办公中最常用的软件Excel中电子表格、函数和VBA编程等结合起来,实现了对学生“成绩综合评价”的高效程序化。文中从程序思路、结构设计、主要功能、编程和操作等几个方面入手,对该案例进行了分析和延伸。     

电子商务参与下的交易信用

世界经济迅速全球化、电子商务也得到了迅猛发展，全球和地区的商业合作已经成为各行业经营和管理的方式。不管在合作还是交易中交易信用的作用和需求都非常突出地显现出来了，作者通过对于国内外交易信用的调查，总结出国内信用体系建设的必要性、层次和方法以及应该注意的一些问题。     

商业银行信用风险及评估方法应用述评

信用风险是商业银行面临的最主要的风险，如何改进信用风险评估方法、提高预测精度是摆在学术界和实践界的重要课题。自20世纪30年代以来，商业银行信用风险的评估方法大致经历了比例分析、统计分析和人工智能三个阶段。在对风险、信用风险概念分析的基础上，对主要的信用风险评估方法进行述评。