关系类型对服务失败后顾客反应的影响

本文探讨了真正服务关系、虚假服务关系和偶遇服务关系三种关系类型对服务失败后顾客反应的影响。研究显示,在遭遇服务失败后三种关系类型的反应差异明显,具有真正服务关系的顾客在服务失败后比其它两类关系类型的顾客具有更高的顾客满意度、更少的负面口碑以及更高的重购倾向,而虚假关系的顾客比偶遇关系的顾客又表现出较高的满意度、较少的负面口碑以及较高的重购倾向。所以关系能够提供防御性服务补救作用,而且相对于其它补救策略更显得未雨绸缪。     

Dependence Estimation Over a Finite Bivariate Failure Time Region

This articleconcerns nonparametric estimation of association between bivariatefailure times. In the presence of independent right censoring,the support for failure time variates may be restricted and measuresof dependence over a finite failure time region may be of particularinterest. To this end, the reciprocal cross ratio function, weightedby the bivariate failure time density, is proposed as a summarymeasure of dependence over a failure time region. This `relativerisk' estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptoticallynormally distributed, with consistent bootstrap variance estimator.A finite-region version of Kendall's tau, which is suitable forcensored failure time data, is also proposed, and correspondingasymptotic distribution theory is noted. The accuracy of theseasymptotic approximations is studied in simulations and an illustrationis provided.     

Bayesian Estimation of Survival Functions under Stochastic Precedence

When estimating the distributions of two random variables, X and Y, investigators often have prior information that Y tends to be bigger than X. To formalize this prior belief, one could potentially assume stochastic ordering between X and Y, which implies Pr(X < or = z) > or = Pr(Y < or = z) for all z in the domain of X and Y. Stochastic ordering is quite restrictive, though, and this article focuses instead on Bayesian estimation of the distribution functions of X and Y under the weaker stochastic precedence constraint, Pr(X < or = Y) > or = 0.5. We consider the case where both X and Y are categorical variables with common support and develop a Gibbs sampling algorithm for posterior computation. The method is then generalized to the case where X and Y are survival times. The proposed approach is illustrated using data on survival after tumor removal for patients with malignant melanoma.     

Regression Analysis of Restricted Mean Survival Time Based on Pseudo-Observations

Regression models for survival data are often specified from the hazard function while classical regression analysis of quantitative outcomes focuses on the mean value (possibly after suitable transformations). Methods for regression analysis of mean survival time and the related quantity, the restricted mean survival time, are reviewed and compared to a method based on pseudo-observations. Both Monte Carlo simulations and two real data sets are studied. It is concluded that while existing methods may be superior for analysis of the mean, pseudo-observations seem well suited when the restricted mean is studied.     

自我概念在人际互动中的应用

自我概念对于个体保持内在一致性、对事物做出准确的判断具有积极作用。目前心理学界对自我概念的结构做出了不同的划分。文章从社会互动的角度,提出自我概念应包括"主我"、"客我"和"他我",并进一步探讨了自我概念在人际互动中的作用。     

美籍犹太作家辛格笔下的愚者意蕴

当代美国著名犹太作家艾·巴·辛格以垂死的犹太民族语言意第绪语,创造出了一系列被西方人认为是犹太民族原型的文学典型———愚者形象。文章结合犹太民族的苦难历史和现状、辛格本人在美国的实际境况以及他笔下的愚者受人嘲弄而不被认同的三种情况,深入剖析三种"局外人"的内因,并具体分析了它们的内涵,从而得出结论认为:三种"局外人"都在渴求和平的人道主义。     

Estimation of a Change Point in a Hazard Function Based on Censored Data

The hazard function plays an important role in reliability or survival studies since it describes the instantaneous risk of failure of items at a time point, given that they have not failed before. In some real life applications, abrupt changes in the hazard function are observed due to overhauls, major operations or specific maintenance activities. In such situations it is of interest to detect the location where such a change occurs and estimate the size of the change. In this paper we consider the problem of estimating a single change point in a piecewise constant hazard function when the observed variables are subject to random censoring. We suggest an estimation procedure that is based on certain structural properties and on least squares ideas. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of this estimator with two estimators available in the literature: an estimator based on a functional of the Nelson-Aalen estimator and a maximum likelihood estimator. The proposed least squares estimator tums out to be less biased than the other two estimators, but has a larger variance. We illustrate the estimation method on some real data sets.     

坚持辩证唯物主义反对唯心主义

当代中国马克思主义哲学同形形色色唯心主义的斗争是在某些人公开否认马克思主义哲学的条件下,通过对意识形态阵地的占领与反占领、指导与反指导这样新的形式表现出来.譬如"物吾两忘论",否认主体与客体的对立统一关系,否认马克思主义哲学是认识世界和改造世界的认识论和方法论的知识体系;"三分说"否认理论联系实际的基本原则;"主宰和支配客观规律说"片面夸大人的主观能动作用;"当代中国哲学自觉走向人学论"企图用人学来取代马克思主义哲学在当代中国的指导地位.对于这样一些倾向和思潮,我们必须坚决予以批驳和反对,以巩固和捍卫马克思主义哲学阵地.     

A joint modelling approach for clustered recurrent events and death events

In dental implant research studies, events such as implant complications including pain or infection may be observed recurrently before failure events, i.e. the death of implants. It is natural to assume that recurrent events and failure events are correlated to each other, since they happen on the same implant (subject) and complication times have strong effects on the implant survival time. On the other hand, each patient may have more than one implant. Therefore these recurrent events or failure events are clustered since implant complication times or failure times within the same patient (cluster) are likely to be correlated. The overall implant survival times and recurrent complication times are both interesting to us. In this paper, a joint modelling approach is proposed for modelling complication events and dental implant survival times simultaneously. The proposed method uses a frailty process to model the correlation within cluster and the correlation within subjects. We use Bayesian methods to obtain estimates of the parameters. Performance of the joint models are shown via simulation studies and data analysis.     

Welfare generosity, pregnancies and abortions among unmarried AFDC recipients

Even before the 1996 overhaul of the U.S. welfare system, a number of states had ended the practice of paying extra benefits to families who have additional children while receiving welfare. Proponents believe that this reform can reduce births to recipients, however many worry that it may encourage women to obtain abortions. Using a sample of unmarried AFDC recipients from the NLSY, we estimate a bivariate probit model of pregnancy and, conditional on becoming pregnant, the probability of abortion. Our results lend some support for the proposition that reducing incremental AFDC benefits will decrease pregnancies without increasing abortions. Received: 16 April 1998/Accepted: 11 March 1999