Understanding the Determinants of Service Channel Preference in the Early Stages of Adoption: A Social Cognitive Perspective on Online Brokerage Services*

In today's increasingly technology‐mediated world, individuals are often confronted with a decision of whether to obtain services through online, self‐service technologies or traditional, nontechnological alternatives. Understanding the mechanisms by which consumers choose among these competing service channels represents an important concern for organizations, consumers, and Web site designers. This study develops a research model based on Social Cognitive Theory to explain and predict service channel preferences that arise in the early stages of adoption, before a consumer conducts business using a particular channel. The model is subsequently tested in the brokerage services context, using observations obtained via survey. Given the growing popularity of online investing combined with the challenging prospect of making optimal decisions in an inherently risky environment, the context offers insights of practical and theoretical importance. The results suggest that task‐specific self‐efficacy beliefs serve as the activating mechanism kicking off a chain of psychological events that entice consumers to favor a particular service channel. Higher levels of self‐efficacy induce individuals to prefer the online approach. In addition to its direct effect on preference for the online service channel, higher levels of self‐efficacy influence one's propensity to take risks and expectations of performance‐oriented rewards, which, in turn, sway consumers to favor the online service channel. Furthermore, self‐efficacy and perceptions concerning the credibility of online information interact to affect service channel preference. Consumers are more likely to prefer the online service channel when they view themselves as capable and perceive online sources to be credible. Implications for theory and practice are discussed in light of the findings.     

Generalized exchange and propensity for military service: The moderating effect of prior military exposure

The propensity for military service (PMS) of young Americans is an important issue for our Armed Forces. Since the 1990s, the PMS of young Americans has steadily declined. Overtime, a declining PMS may cause military mission degradation, lowering of military recruitment standards, base closures, and reinstatement of the unpopular military draft system. This paper investigates the moderator effect of prior military service on the Generalized Exchange-PMS relationship. Generalized exchange is when indirect benefits such as preserving freedom and the American way of life accrue to the larger society because of an individual's military service. This paper uses a structural equation modelling approach to analyse the moderating effect of prior military exposure on prospective recruits regarding their PMS. Findings indicate that the group of prospective recruits with prior military exposure had higher levels of PMS than the group without such exposure, that is, the young people with prior military exposure are more likely to enlist in the military than the young Americans with no prior military exposure.     

Crisis nursery effects on child placement after foster care

The results of a study of the relationship between receiving crisis nursery services and the placement outcomes for young children leaving the child welfare system in Illinois are reported in this paper. The placement outcomes for children leaving foster care whose families received crisis nursery support prior to the children's placement in foster care is compared to the placement outcomes for children whose families received only foster care services. The children in two samples were identified by matching crisis nursery children's data from FY 2006 with children's data in the Illinois Child Abuse and Neglect Tracking System and Children Youth and Services Information System databases. After children served by crisis nursery and foster care services were identified, a comparison group of children with like-characteristics whose families received only foster care services was identified using propensity score matching. The children were followed until their out-of-home placement was terminated or until June 30, 2009. The placement outcomes and the length of stay were compared for the two groups. Using logistical regression analysis the results showed that children whose families received crisis nursery services prior to foster care placement were twice as likely to be reunited with their biological families (birth or extended family members) when compared to children whose families received only foster care services. The difference in the length-of-stay in foster care was not statistically significant when the two groups were compared. This preliminary study using administrative data shows that receiving crisis nursery services may have positive effects on the children's ultimate placement outcome after foster care. Additional research is needed to further explore the relationship between placement outcome and crisis nursery services.     

大数据背景下网络调查样本的随机森林倾向得分模型推断研究

随着大数据与互联网技术的迅猛发展,网络调查的应用越来越广泛。本文提出网络调查样本的随机森林倾向得分模型推断方法,通过构建若干棵分类决策树组成随机森林,对网络调查样本单元的倾向得分进行估计,从而实现对总体的推断。模拟分析和实证研究结果表明:基于随机森林倾向得分模型的总体均值估计的相对偏差、方差与均方误差均比基于Logistic倾向得分模型的总体均值估计的相对偏差、方差与均方误差小,提出的方法估计效果更好。     

统计模型的“不确定性”问题:与倾向值方法

量化社会学研究往往基于特定的统计模型展开。近十几年来日益流行的倾向值方法也不例外，其在实施过程中需要同时拟合估计倾向值得分的“倾向值模型”与估计因果关系的“结果模型”。然而，无论是其模型形式还是系数估计，统计模型本身都具有不可忽视的“不确定性”问题。本研究在倾向值分析方法的框架下，系统梳理和阐释了模型形式不确定性与模型系数不确定性的内涵及其处理方法。通过分析“蒙特卡洛模拟”数据与经验调查数据，本文展示了在使用倾向值方法进行因果估计的过程中，研究者如何通过“贝叶斯平均法”进行多个备选倾向值模型的选择，以及如何通过联合估计解决倾向值模型与估计模型中的系数不确定性问题。本文的研究也表明，在考虑倾向值估计过程的不确定性之后，结果模型中对于因果关系的估计呈现更小的置信区间和更高的统计效率。     

Estimation of average treatment effects based on parametric propensity score model

In this paper, the estimation of average treatment effects is examined given that the propensity score is of a parametric form with some unknown parameters. Under the assumption that the treatment is ignorable given some observed characteristics, the MLEs for those unknown parameters in the probability assignment model have been achieved firstly and then three estimators have been defined by the inverse probability weighted, regression and imputation methods, respectively. All the estimators are shown asymptotically normal and more importantly, the substantial efficiency gains of the first two estimates have been obtained theoretically compared with the existing estimators in Hahn (1998) and Hirano et al. (2003), i.e., the inverse weighted probability estimator and the regression estimator have smaller asymptotic variances. Our simulation analysis verifies the theoretical results in terms of biases, SEs and MSEs.     

Parental wealth and children's outcomes over the life-course in Brazil: A propensity score matching analysis

Parental wealth – as distinct from income, education and other parental socioeconomic resources – may play a large role in children's socioeconomic outcomes, particularly in developing countries, characterized by economic volatility, a weak social safety net and limited access to credit. Using a propensity score matching approach, we examine the influence of parental wealth on adult children's schooling, school quality, occupational status, consumption level, and wealth holdings in Brazil. Findings suggest a substantial effect of parental wealth on all these outcomes, with a positive effect of even modest levels of wealth. The effect of parental wealth on occupational status is largely mediated by parental investment in more and better education for children. In contrast, the effect on children's consumption and wealth is largely unmediated by labor market resources and rewards, a pattern that is more pronounced for sons than for daughters. This suggests direct parental financial assistance. Sensitivity analysis indicates that hidden bias emerging from unobserved confounders should have to be unlikely large to question inference of a causal influence of high levels of parental wealth, although the influence of low levels of wealth may be more susceptible to hidden bias.     

Bayesian Inference for Assessing Effects of Email Marketing Campaigns

Email marketing has been an increasingly important tool for today’s businesses. In this article, we propose a counting-process-based Bayesian method for quantifying the effectiveness of email marketing campaigns in conjunction with customer characteristics. Our model explicitly addresses the seasonality of data, accounts for the impact of customer characteristics on their purchasing behavior, and evaluates effects of email offers as well as their interactions with customer characteristics. Using the proposed method, together with a propensity-score-based unit-matching technique for alleviating potential confounding, we analyze a large email marketing dataset of an online ticket marketplace to evaluate the short- and long-term effectiveness of their email campaigns. It is shown that email offers can increase customer purchase rate both immediately and during a longer term. Customers’ characteristics such as length of shopping history, purchase recency, average ticket price, average ticket count, and number of genres purchased also affect customers’ purchase rate. A strong positive interaction is uncovered between email offer and purchase recency, suggesting that customers who have been inactive recently are more likely to take advantage of promotional offers. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Socioeconomic background and racial earnings inequality: A propensity score analysis

Does a racial earnings gap exist among individuals who come from similar childhood socioeconomic backgrounds? Is the racial earnings gap larger or smaller for those from higher or lower socioeconomic origins? This research addresses these questions by taking a counterfactual approach to estimating the residual racial pay gap between non-Hispanic black and white men from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. The findings indicate that the racial earnings gap is larger among those from lower-middle class and working class childhood backgrounds than among those from upper-middle class backgrounds, for whom the racial pay gap is indistinguishable from zero. Compared to their more advantaged counterparts, black men from lower-middle and working class backgrounds have more difficulty rising above their socioeconomic origins relative to white men from similar social class backgrounds. Racial earnings equality among those from upper-middle class backgrounds suggests that the high levels of racial inequality often observed among those with college and professional degrees may in fact reflect heterogeneous childhood socioeconomic backgrounds among the college educated—backgrounds that continue to have an effect on earnings despite individual academic achievements.     

老年人与子女同住 对老年健康的影响分析

随着我国老龄化程度的持续加深和疾病谱的转变,当前社会存在大量老年照料需求,尽管国家和社会在积极构建养老服务体系,但短期内与子女同住的家庭养老模式仍将发挥重要作用。与子女同住会对老年健康产生一定的影响,这种影响对于不同健康程度的老年人也存在差异。本文基于南加州大学经济与社会研究中心提供的Harmonized CHARLS 2013-2015年追踪数据,选取我国60岁及以上老年群体为研究对象,以虚弱指数表征健康结果,采用OLS回归和分位数回归的方法探讨与子女同住的居住模式对老年健康的影响及这一影响对不同虚弱程度的老年人是否匀质,通过滞后模型设计和倾向值匹配法控制可能存在的内生性问题。研究发现居住模式与虚弱指数存在显著的正向关系,表明居住模式会影响老年健康水平;与子女同住对老年人健康存在负面效应,而在父母附近分而不离的居住模式相较于与子女同住而言对老年人的健康更为有利;与子女同住对老年健康的这种负向影响对于不同虚弱程度的老年人而言是非线性、非匀质的,大致呈先增后降的倒U形分布,表明不同健康状况的老年人对子女的照料需求是不同的,这种影响在不同性别、城乡和年龄段的老年群体间各有差异。这就为与子女同住的居住模式提供了一些警示,与子女同住不能改变老年健康衰减的趋势,应尽量减少或规避可能增加老年人晚年健康负担的风险性因素,让"家"真正成为老年人安享晚年的港湾。