气候变化政治对海湾国家的影响

海湾地区气候炎热,淡水资源缺乏。长期以来,海湾国家主要依靠能源出口获取大量资金,借此修建海水淡化工厂等各种设施以适应和改善气候环境的影响。近年来,国际社会在应对全球变暖问题的协调合作中,已形成一种处理全球气候变化的政治。气候变化政治要求各国减少能源消耗和降低二氧化碳排放量以缓解全球变暖趋势,从而对海湾国家以能源出口收益来维护生存环境和社会稳定的基本经济模式构成冲击。面对气候变化政治带来的冲击,海湾国家目前的权宜选择只能是继续扩大能源出口,并尽量拖延实施气候变化协议来进行应对。然而,这种做法虽可以暂时保持海湾国家改善环境的努力和维护其经济政治结构稳定,但却难以消除全球气候变化政治今后长期推动能源结构调整和节能减排所带来的压力。     

基于产品生命周期的多阶段剩余收益项目决策模型

剩余收益模型（Residual Income Model,RIM）是评估公司权益价值的经典模型,特别地,奥尔森系列剩余收益模型由于可以利用历史财务与会计数据而得到广泛运用。本文在一般剩余收益模型的基础上,运用规范研究、逻辑推理等方法,基于产品生命周期理论,即项目处于产品生命周期的不同阶段时,其净资产收益率不同,在增长期的净资产收益率持续上升,衰退期的净资产收益率持续下降,而成熟期的净资产收益率则围绕行业平均水平波动,从理论上就项目投资价值的评估构建了多阶段剩余收益项目决策模型,并就所构建的多阶段剩余收益项目决策模型进行参数赋值分析。研究结果表明该新构建的决策模型具有较好的理论和运用价值,可以作为一种有效的项目投资决策模型。本文的研究一是拓展了剩余收益模型的应用,从主要用于对公司权益价值的估值拓展至对项目投资决策的评估;二是有利于寻求项目投资决策的价值最大化。     

非线性面板数据聚类方法研究

对于一类变量非线性相关的面板数据,现有的基于线性算法的面板数据聚类方法并不能准确地度量样本间的相似性,且聚类结果的可解释性低。综合考虑变量非线性相关问题及聚类结果可解释性问题,提出一种非线性面板数据的聚类方法,通过非线性核主成分算法实现对样本相似性的测度,并基于混合高斯模型进行样本概率聚类,实证表明该方法的有效性及其对聚类结果的可解释性有所提高。     

论“跨文化交际”课程设计模块化

利用美国学者陈国明先生的跨文化交际能力的模型,结合跨文化课程设计理论和国内研究数据,完成课程概念性的模块化设计,为国内同行提供一个课程设计的新思路。     

Model selection for Lévy measures in diffusion processes with jumps from discrete observations

We deal with parametric inference and selection problems for jump components in discretely observed diffusion processes with jumps. We prepare several competing parametric models for the Lévy measure that might be misspecified, and select the best model from the aspect of information criteria. We construct quasi-information criteria (QIC), which are approximations of the information criteria based on continuous observations.     

Use of log−log survival function in modeling time-covariate interactions in Cox regression

Plotting of log−log survival functions against time for different categories or combinations of categories of covariates is perhaps the easiest and most commonly used graphical tool for checking proportional hazards (PH) assumption. One problem in the utilization of the technique is that the covariates need to be categorical or made categorical through appropriate grouping of the continuous covariates. Subjectivity in the decision making on the basis of eye-judgment of the plots and frequent inconclusiveness arising in situations where the number of categories and/or covariates gets larger are among other limitations of this technique. This paper proposes a non-graphical (numerical) test of the PH assumption that makes use of log−log survival function. The test enables checking proportionality for categorical as well as continuous covariates and overcomes the other limitations of the graphical method. Observed power and size of the test are compared to some other tests of its kind through simulation experiments. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed test is more powerful than some of the most sensitive tests in the literature in a wide range of survival situations. An example of the test is given using the widely used gastric cancer data.     

免费婚检、孕检的投入产出分析——以广东某区为例

本文从经济学的角度,以投入产出模型和机会成本为理论基础,通过构建以出生缺陷减少为产出收益的免费婚检、孕检投入产出分析模型,并以广东省某区的经验数据进行实证检验,对免费婚检、孕检推行的可行性进行分析。发现推行免费婚孕检的产出与投入的净现值指数为2．08,观显大于1。说明免费婚检、孕检项目可行且效益明显,值得在更大范围内推广。     

失业劳动力的就业渴望强度影响因素实证分析

本文基于重庆直辖市3000失业劳动力家庭人户调查的微观数据,运用排序选择logit模型估计了失业劳动力的人口统计学特征、人力资本、社会背景和社会政策．以及家庭经济状况等因素对其就业渴望强烈程度的影响。本文的政策含义在于：在健全失业保险的前提下,对失业劳动力适当的取消直接货币补偿而代之以非货币的扶持,可能更有利于刺激失业劳动力积极寻找工作和再就业。     

新疆维吾尔自治区死亡水平的演变规律及分布特征分析

本文根据《新疆辉煌50年》及三次人口普查数据,分析了新疆维吾尔自治区历年来死亡率、死亡人数、死亡率模式、平均预期寿命等指标的演变过程及分布特征,试图揭示新疆维吾尔自治区死亡水平的内在变动规律,为计划生育及相关政府部门制定政策提供依据。     

Score test for homogeneity of dispersion in generalized Poisson mixed models with excess zeros

In many applications, the clustered count data often contain excess zeros and the zero-inflated generalized Poisson mixed (ZIGPM) regression model may be suitable. However, dispersion in ZIGPM is often treated as fixed unknown parameter, and this assumption may be not appropriate in some situations. In this article, a score test for homogeneity of dispersion parameter in ZIGPM regression model is developed and corresponding test statistic is obtained. Sampling distribution and power of the score test statistic are investigated through Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, results from a biological example illustrate the usefulness of the diagnostic statistic.