基于贝叶斯图模型方法的投资组合决策

提出基于贝叶斯思想的图模型结构检测方法:首先给出精度矩阵新的参数化方法,且通过MCMC方法给出算法设计,最后将该图模型方法应用于中国证券市场,研究在牛市和熊市下证券市场六大板块之间的条件相关性.实证结果表明:牛市和熊市下的行业板块图结构存在显著差异,熊市似乎有着更强的相关性.     

中国宏观经济对沪市的波动溢出效应研究——基于VAR（k）-MGARCH—BEKK（1，1）模型

本文基于VAR（k）-MGARCH—BEKK（1,1）模型和Wald检验探讨了2003—2008年期间的全国银行间同业拆借利率、汇率、企业商品价格指数、工业增加值增长率、M0、宏观景气指数和消费价格指数对沪市的波动溢出效应,结果表明,除了企业商品价格指数和M0之外,其它宏观经济指标的增长率（速度）均对沪市收益率产生显著的、直接的波动溢出效应。     

基于GCRM模型的信用经济资本测度和贷款定价研究

GCRM模型与ASRF模型相比,能给出与经济资本测度目标相一致的资本数量,而现有文献对GCRM模型的到期收益率没有给出明确的刻画,本文则通过假设资产的到期收益率与其信用经济资本相关,得出了基于GCRM模型的信用经济资本测度和贷款定价方法,它能够刻画借款者的违约概率、违约损失率,以及商业银行的风险偏好（目标支付概率）和资本融资成本对经济资本和贷款定价的影响,为商业银行相关领域的决策提供了参考。     

A propensity score matching analysis of the relationship between victim sex and capital juror decision-making in North Carolina

A small body of prior research has examined the impact of victim sex on jury death penalty decision-making and the majority of this research has demonstrated some evidence of a “female victim effect” such that cases involving a female victim are more likely to receive the death penalty than similarly situated cases with a male victim. However, within this line of research studies have suggested that victim sex may work in conjunction with other case characteristics. In order to further explore this phenomenon, the current study examines a near-population of death penalty cases from North Carolina (n = 1069) from 1977–2009 using propensity score matching. Results demonstrate that once cases are matched on more than 50 legal and extralegal case characteristics, there is no statistically significant or substantive link between victim sex and death penalty decision-making. Findings suggest that it is concrete differences in the legal and extralegal factors observed in cases with female victims compared to male victims that shape jury death sentence decisions rather than a direct effect of victim sex (before matching: OR = 1.53; 95% CI = 1.20–1.95; p < .001/after matching: OR = 0.90; 95% CI = 0.66–1.24; p = .52). Study limitations and implications are also discussed.     

电子技能教学中引入CBE模式的思考

CBE是以职业综合能力为基础的教育体系,它以达到某一种职业的从业能力为教学目标。CBE教学模式在高职院校“电子技能实训”中应用,可以构建电子技能实训新的教学体系,拓宽实训途径,培养学生自主学习能力．从而提高职业综合能力。     

广东对外贸易与经济增长关系的协整分析

利用多种计量分析工具,从总量和增长效应的角度研究了广东进出口与GDP增长间的关系。研究发现:从长期来说,进口、出口与GDP存在唯一稳定关系,出口较进口对经济增长有更大的促进作用;从短期来说,进口增长、出口增长都是GDP增长的Granger原因,出口增长同时也是进口增长的Granger原因,进口增长、出口增长都带动了经济增长,而且进口增长比出口增长与经济增长有更稳定、更紧密的联系     

激活扩散模式对商标词翻译的启示

运用心理语言学的激活扩散模式对商标词不同于普通词汇的语义特性作出了分析和解释,并从激活点的可及性、激活力的影响范围和激活扩散的路径三个方面,为商标翻译原则寻找认知上的依据,由此为商标词翻译的研究提供新的思路。     

留守经历对新生代农民工工作流动的影响--基于2015年北京市数据的实证检验

本文基于2015年北京市新生代农民工的微观调查数据，在利用倾向得分倒数加权法纠正样本的选择性偏差以后发现：（1）新生代农民工过高的工作流动频率在一定程度上与其普遍的留守经历有关；（2）不同类型的留守形式和留守时间对工作流动的影响有所不同，完全留守、长期留守者表现出更高的工作流动性；（3）相同的留守行为对工作流动的影响存在明显的性别差异，男性农民工更易受到童年时期留守经历的影响。上述结论的政策启示在于：在关注留守经历及其所带来的影响差异的同时，也应避免留守问题的代际传承。     

基于钻石模型的重庆自贸区跨境电商创新发展的路径研究

重庆自贸区跨境电商在推进重庆建设内陆国际物流中心、内陆服务贸易中心、内陆功能性金融中心中起到了重要作用。运用波特钻石模型对重庆自贸区跨境电商进行分析，从生产要素、需求条件、相关与支持产业、竞争对手、发展机会、政府作用六个方面，构建模型分析各种影响因素，研究重庆自贸区跨境电商的现状及比较优势，提出创新发展的路径。     

Estimating the effectiveness of a misdemeanor drug diversion program using propensity score matching and survival analyses

This study analyzes three years of data on misdemeanor drug offenders in Winnebago County, Wisconsin. A portion of these offenders opted into a Misdemeanor Drug Diversion Program (MDDP) offered instead of traditional adjudication. Recidivism in the treatment and comparison groups is estimated using standard binary response techniques augmented with propensity score matching to address selection bias. Results show that the MDDP reduces the probability of re-offense by 16%, after adjusting for possible selection bias. Cox proportional hazard modeling is also used to assess time-to-re-offense differentials between the treatment and comparison groups. The survival analysis indicates that the hazard rate of re-offense is 60% lower per day among those treated with the MDDP program than those who did not complete the program. The average number of days to re-offense among those that do re-offend is 297 days in the treatment group and 203 days in the comparison group.