战略和价值导向的管理系统--综合计分卡

综合计分卡不仅仅是一种评估系统,更是一种基于战略和价值导向的管理系统.综合计分卡重点关注企业的财务、客户、内部经营过程、学习与成长等四个方面,强调财务目标与非财务目标的有机结合,强调财务目标和业绩驱动因素的内在联系,从而使企业战略转化为员工行动,保证企业战略实施,提高股东价值.本文主要通过分析综合计分卡与战略、价值的关系,分析综合计分卡四个方面及其内在联系,并结合国外综合计分卡的实践经验,探讨综合计分卡作为一种战略管理工具对企业业绩、战略实施、核心竞争力建立的有益作用,进而对中国企业实践综合计分卡问题进行研究.     

房地产上市公司非财务绩效评价研究

绩效评价是企业调整运营战略的依据,仅仅从财务的角度考虑绩效是不全面的。文章从非财务的角度对财务绩效评价做出补充,用平衡计分卡理论构建房地产行业的非财务评价体系,继而用层次分析法给指标赋权,并以万科地产为例用模糊综合评价法对定性的体系进行了量化,验证指标体系构建的合理性。简化了房地产公司自我评定以及同行之间的非财务维度的绩效比较。     

企业业绩评价方法改进的探讨

企业绩效评价在促进企业改善经营管理、提高经济效益方面具有不可替代的作用。以利润为中心的传统绩效评价指标不能真实地反映公司经营业绩,经济增加值(EVA)和平衡计分卡(BSC)虽然较传统的绩效评价方法有了很大改进,但仍然存在一些不足。将EVA和BSC结合,形成EVA计分卡,运用层次分析法和专家评分法量化指标权重,能较好地评价企业业绩。     

战略营销规划在中国企业中的运用——基于扎根理论范式的多案例探索性研究

文章通过运用扎根理论的研究方法,对来自不同行业的中国五家大型企业战略营销规划的构建方式、制定过程和贯彻过程进行多案例实证分析,发现战略营销解码研讨会作为制订战略营销规划的一种方式,具有增强决策者的战略营销知识、良好的沟通平台、增强员工的参与性和使命感、博弈和协商的平台,以及促进员工对价值观的认同等特征。这些特征较好地克服了一些文献提到的制定和执行战略营销规划中的障碍,文章也因此演绎出一个包含战略营销规划构建方式、制定过程和贯彻过程的冰山模型,可供中国企业参考和借鉴。     

初婚解体风险变化趋势及其影响因素——基于CFPS2010数据的分析

基于中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS2010),分析中国初婚解体风险变化趋势及其影响因素。结果表明:随时间推移,初婚解体风险总体呈现上升趋势,其对城市的影响超过了农村,对女性的影响超过了男性;初婚年龄与初婚解体风险呈现轻微的U型关系,主要是由早婚或晚婚的婚姻异质性所引起;婚姻异质性对初婚解体风险的作用受择偶梯度的影响,"男高女低"婚姻模式的初婚离婚风险远远小于"女高男低"模式;在家庭因素的影响中,生育孩子有利于降低初婚离婚风险,而与父母同住及婚前同居则显著增加了初婚离婚风险。     

辽宁农产品出口面临的技术性贸易壁垒及对策

针对辽宁农产品出口面临的技术性贸易壁垒及对策进行分析。采用规范和实证相结合的研究方法,深入分析了技术性贸易壁垒对辽宁农产品出口的影响,并得出结论：辽宁应积极采取提高农产品质量、调整农产品出口结构、转变外贸增长方式、建立健全技术性贸易壁垒的预警机制、积极发展海外投资等突破技术性贸易壁垒的措施。     

农业保险排斥对农民收入的影响：基于倾向值匹配的异质性研究

我国存在较严重的农业保险排斥,对农民收入产生了一定影响。采用2015-2016年北方6省12县种植业保险的调研数据,利用倾向得分匹配法纠正可能存在的样本选择性偏误,系统考察了农业保险排斥对农民收入的影响。实证结果表明：农业保险排斥对农民收入有显著负向影响,受排斥农户与未受排斥农户的农业收入差异为6%左右。考虑异质性后的结果进一步表明,未受排斥的年轻农户和规模扩大型农户农业收入增长明显。此外,相较于高受灾农户,未受排斥的低受灾农户因为受灾和补偿概率较低,农业保费成为农业额外成本从而降低了收入。提出应持续推进政策性农业保险“提标、扩面、增品”,降低农村农业保险排斥,充分发挥农业保险在防风险、稳收入中的作用。     

Approximating the risk score for disease diagnosis using MARS

In disease screening and diagnosis, often multiple markers are measured and combined to improve the accuracy of diagnosis. McIntosh and Pepe [Combining several screening tests: optimality of the risk score, Biometrics 58 (2002), pp. 657–664] showed that the risk score, defined as the probability of disease conditional on multiple markers, is the optimal function for classification based on the Neyman–Pearson lemma. They proposed a two-step procedure to approximate the risk score. However, the resulting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is only defined in a subrange (L, h) of false-positive rates in (0,1) and the determination of the lower limit L needs extra prior information. In practice, most diagnostic tests are not perfect, and it is usually rare that a single marker is uniformly better than the other tests. Using simulation, I show that multivariate adaptive regression spline is a useful tool to approximate the risk score when combining multiple markers, especially when ROC curves from multiple tests cross. The resulting ROC is defined in the whole range of (0,1) and is easy to implement and has intuitive interpretation. The sample code of the application is shown in the appendix.     

先锋小说中的词语超常搭配现象探微

先锋小说是20世纪80年代的一个重要的文学现象。以先锋小说中的词语超常搭配现象为研究对象,初步分析了先锋小说中的词语超常搭配在主谓结构、偏正结构、动宾结构、并列结构这四种句法结构中的体现,从而从一个侧面展现出先锋小说语言实验的特点。     

A propensity score matching analysis of the relationship between victim sex and capital juror decision-making in North Carolina

A small body of prior research has examined the impact of victim sex on jury death penalty decision-making and the majority of this research has demonstrated some evidence of a “female victim effect” such that cases involving a female victim are more likely to receive the death penalty than similarly situated cases with a male victim. However, within this line of research studies have suggested that victim sex may work in conjunction with other case characteristics. In order to further explore this phenomenon, the current study examines a near-population of death penalty cases from North Carolina (n = 1069) from 1977–2009 using propensity score matching. Results demonstrate that once cases are matched on more than 50 legal and extralegal case characteristics, there is no statistically significant or substantive link between victim sex and death penalty decision-making. Findings suggest that it is concrete differences in the legal and extralegal factors observed in cases with female victims compared to male victims that shape jury death sentence decisions rather than a direct effect of victim sex (before matching: OR = 1.53; 95% CI = 1.20–1.95; p < .001/after matching: OR = 0.90; 95% CI = 0.66–1.24; p = .52). Study limitations and implications are also discussed.