信息混沌环境下区域物流能力盲数测评模型

以盲数作为数学工具建立了区域物流能力的盲数测评模型.模型的基本思路是:首先构建区域物流能力构成要素的层次分析体系;然后采用改进的Delphi法建立模糊一致判断矩阵,确定各构成要素的权重;再将专家的评分结果表示成盲数并计算盲数均值;最后采用加权评分的方法得到区域物流能力总的测算值.设计了一个算例,算例表明模型的可行性和适用性.     

简议陶渊明性格的复杂性

陶渊明是魏晋南北朝时期最伟大的诗人,从表面上看他的性格是复杂的,而通过对其前期和后期人生经历的分析却看出其本质并不复杂,通过论述对他的复杂性给予定位。     

自由和独立--萨拉的复杂性格系统

复杂性理论的系统观可解读文学作品。在约翰·福尔斯《法国中尉的女人》中,萨拉的性格策略便是一个复杂系统。众多要素的相互作用,使萨拉的性格形成回路,构建动态的性格系统。她兼有攻击和自恋的性格,超越了传统女性的固定形象。元小说不确定的结局则突破了传统,不同于维多利亚小说可预见的结局,使萨拉形象更具社会意义。     

大学战略管理的创新之道:跨学科案例的启示

战略管理源起于军事领域,在复杂性理论的观照下军事与教育两种理论具有可通约性,军事上的战略创新对大学战略管理转型具有参照性意义。以"新四军"为案例,其发展历程中战略转型所彰显的"创新精神"对大学战略管理的重要借鉴价值在于:大学要因时而变,引领时代发展;要权宜应变,不断回归大学本质;要适时善变,采取个性化的治校之术。     

后现代哲学的反基础主义与复杂性探索

反基础主义是后现代哲学的一个基本理论倾向 ,与基础主义具有相反的意义。其主要内容有 :否定大叙事 ,拒斥形而上学 ,抛弃反映论 ,否认同一性。现代技术革命是复杂性探索产生的社会文化背景 ,也为反基础主义的出现提供了重要条件。反基础主义与复杂性探索共存于同一社会文化之中 ,它们之间存在着相互为用与相互阻抗的相互作用与相互影响 ,但它们既不互为基础又互不相属。     

微观复杂性探究

20世纪80年代以来,迅速兴起的以复杂性为 主要研究对象的复杂性研究理论,将人类长期争论 不休的一个古老的议题--世界的本性是简单的还 是复杂的,又重新凸显到了当代科学的前沿。显然, 要讨论简单性或复杂性之类的问题,首先必须对什 么是简单性、什么是复杂性予以明晰的界定。然而 遗憾的是,时至今日,关于简单性和复杂性这两个概 念的明确区分仍然是十分困难的。虽然如此,我们 依然可以从简单性和复杂性分别所具的对应性特征 的层面来对这两个概念及其表征的现实予以大致的 把握与区分。所谓简单性,指的是那些具有单一性、 确定性、固定性、不变性特征的事物、现象和过程;所 谓复杂性,则相应指谓的是那些具有多样性、不确定 性、随机性、可变性特征的事物、现象和过程。笔者 曾在一篇文章中指出:     

An Approximate Bayesian Marginal Likelihood Approach for Estimating Finite Mixtures

Estimation of finite mixture models when the mixing distribution support is unknown is an important problem. This article gives a new approach based on a marginal likelihood for the unknown support. Motivated by a Bayesian Dirichlet prior model, a computationally efficient stochastic approximation version of the marginal likelihood is proposed and large-sample theory is presented. By restricting the support to a finite grid, a simulated annealing method is employed to maximize the marginal likelihood and estimate the support. Real and simulated data examples show that this novel stochastic approximation and simulated annealing procedure compares favorably with existing methods.     

Family Policy and Complex Contemporary Families: A Decade in Review and Implications for the Next Decade of Research and Policy Practice

Prior Journal of Marriage and Family decade-in-review articles have grappled with the definition and role of family policy for research and policy practice while emphasizing its value to both. In this article, we begin with a broad conceptualization of family policy that encompasses actions intended to achieve explicitly stated goals for families (explicit policies) and those that affect families without an explicitly stated goal for doing so (implicit policies), which we believe provides a solid framework for guiding and understanding both research and practice in the field. Second, we review major U.S. policy initiatives in the past decade and their documented and potential effects on families. Third, we describe several key aspects by which contemporary families have become more diverse and complex. Fourth, we discuss the implications of ongoing family complexity for public policies. We conclude with a discussion about future research and policy development in the context of contemporary family complexity.     

Abstractions on steroids: A critical realist approach to computer simulations

Computer simulations are increasingly used within various fields of the social sciences, including analytical sociology and computational social science. However, the method has yet to fully find its place within critical realism, generally regarded as reductionist and methodological individualist and thus inadequate to the task of grasping the full and enigmatic complexity of social life. This article contributes to the discussion by suggesting an alternative approach to computer simulations in the social realm. Instead of representing reality, simulations are seen as a way of boosting abstraction by enabling us to isolate and study the effects of emergent mechanisms. The need for such tools is growing more urgent in an age characterized by rapid change and global networks of causal interrelation. Hence there is a need not only for new tools to deal with causal complexity within critical realism, but also for a critical realist perspective to fill the meta‐theoretical vacuum on which the simulation approach is largely based. The approach developed here provides a challenge to the predominant ways in which simulations are utilized today, with increasingly sophisticated models aiming towards realistic representation on the basis of empirical data.     

城市废弃物资源化共生网络脆弱性影响机制——基于SCP与CAS融合的分析视角

在内外因素的交互干扰下,城市废弃物资源化共生网络表现得格外脆弱,探寻其脆弱性的理论内涵、影响因素及其作用机制是开展脆弱性治理的前提。借鉴复杂系统脆弱性理论,从能力和绩效两个角度解析其理论内涵,指出系统脆弱性在能力上可以用敏感性、适应性和恢复力予以刻画,在绩效上表现为增值性不强、共享性不足和生态性不佳。通过梳理国内外研究文献,从共生单元、网络结构、共生机制、网络氛围和环境不确定性5个维度提炼出脆弱性影响因素;以网络动态能力为结合点,将SCP（Structure Conduct Performance）和CAS（Complexity Adaptive System）两种理论有机融合,构建一个以共生单元素质、网络结构特征、共生机制属性、政策有效性为外因变量,以网络动态能力为中介变量,以网络脆弱性为结果变量,以网络氛围和环境不确定性为调节变量的理论框架。未来可利用大样本调查方法对该理论框架进行实证检验,探讨城市废弃物资源化共生网络脆弱性的形成机理。