三种离散型随机变量k阶中心矩递推计算方法

构造一类特殊多项式及级数,由此推导了二项分布,泊松分布及几何分布Ｋ阶中心矩的递推计算公式,得到了这几个公式的统一形式。     

A class of observation-driven random coefficient INAR(1) processes based on negative binomial thinning

Integer-valued time series models and their applications have attracted a lot of attention over the last years. In this paper, we introduce a class of observation-driven random coefficient integer-valued autoregressive processes based on negative binomial thinning, where the autoregressive parameter depends on the observed values of the previous moment. Basic probability and statistics properties of the process are established. The unknown parameters are estimated by the conditional least squares and empirical likelihood methods. Specially, we consider three aspects of the empirical likelihood method: maximum empirical likelihood estimate, confidence region and EL test. The performance of the two estimation methods is compared through simulation studies. Finally, an application to a real data example is provided.     

An analytical study of the classification of highly skewed data

This article proposes a discriminant function and an algorithm to analyze the data addressing the situation, where the data are positively skewed. The performance of the suggested algorithm based on the suggested discriminant function (LNDF) has been compared with the conventional linear discriminant function (LDF) and quadratic discriminant function (QDF) as well as with the nonparametric support vector machine (SVM) and the Random Forests (RFs) classifiers, using real and simulated datasets. A maximum reduction of approximately 81% in the error rates as compared to QDF for ten-variate data was noted. The overall results are indicative of better performance of the proposed discriminant function under certain circumstances.     

Wallet Game: Probability,Likelihood, and Extended Likelihood

We propose a likelihood explanation to the two-person wallet game, a probability-related paradox, where an obviously fair game may appear favorable to both players. Yet a small variation of the game, without changing its fairness, turns it to seem unfavorable. The extended likelihood concept seems logically necessary if we want to allow the sense of uncertainty associated with a realized but still unobserved random outcome, while at the same time avoid potential probability-related paradoxes.     

利用小普查数据对“随机婚配”假定的再检验--兼论Logistic回归系数的可比性问题

使用2005年人口小普查数据研究了独生子女之间的婚配选择问题,发现独生子女更可能与独生子女结婚,且非独生子女也更可能与非独生子女结婚,所以认为独生子女与非独生子女之间“随机婚配”的假定并不符合实际。然而,以往有关生育政策调整的人口预测大都基于这一假定之上,这导致预测结果一方面低估了“双独”和“双非”夫妇的数量,另一方面高估了“单独”夫妇的数量。同时,本文还以独生子女的婚配选择问题为例讨论了嵌套模型中Logistic回归系数的可比性问题。直接比较Logistic回归系数可能导致错误的结论,借助“y?标准化”法和“KHB分解法”可以在一定程度上解决Logistic回归系数不可比的问题。     

我国婴幼儿奶粉安全管理政策效果的实证检验--基于消费者偏好的选择实验研究

为提振国产婴幼儿配方奶粉（Infant Milk Formula,IMF）的社会消费信心,我国政府连续推出多项乳品安全管理政策。基于政策背景的分析,将可追溯信息标签、品牌、产地与销售渠道作为主要属性,设计并实施选择实验,进而运用随机参数Logit模型对消费者支付意愿进行实证分析,据以检验公共管理政策的效果。研究表明,消费者对可追溯信息标签、知名品牌以及海外产地的IMF均有较高支付意愿,但对药店销售IMF的认可度不高。因此,推动国内乳品企业建立可追溯系统、实施兼并重组或海外生产等政策举措可望成为提升消费者信心的有效途径,而药店销售的作用则可能非常有限。     

FDI对中国出口贸易的影响与区域差异实证研究

外商直接投资和出口增长对一个国家或地区经济增长起着重要作用,是国家或地区经济发展的重要推动因素之一.对FDI与出口贸易影响程度进行实证研究,将我国各省市根据区域划分为东、中、西三个横截面,利用2001至2009年九年数据建立面板数据模型,集中对我国FDI与出口间关系,东、中、西三地区FDI与出口关系进行实证研究,比较不同区域影响程度.     

构建有重庆特色的森林城市

全面分析了重庆市城市绿化现状与森林城市建设原则,论述了重庆市山水滨江森林城市的自然特色打造、城市森林生态群落的科学构建、城乡一体化的森林城市建设等重庆森林城市建设特点,论述了重庆森林城市建设的生态文化内涵。     

Simulation-based diagnostics in random-coefficient models

Commonly applied diagnostic procedures in random-coefficient (multilevel) analysis are based on an inspection of the residuals, motivated by established procedures for ordinary regression. The deficiencies of such procedures are discussed and an alternative based on simulation from the fitted model (parametric bootstrap) is proposed. Although computationally intensive, the method proposed requires little programming effort additional to implementing the model fitting procedure. It can be tailored for specific kinds of outliers. Some computationally less demanding alternatives are described.     

Conservation,community, and culture? New organizational challenges of community forest concessions in the Maya Biosphere Reserve of Guatemala

Community-based forestry has received much recent attention as an effort to protect threatened Southern forests by linking conservation with sustainable livelihoods. Many researchers have emphasized the importance of effective organization for successful community-based forestry. While significant attention has been paid to community-level organizational design for collective action, less attention has been given to the role secondary-level grassroots associations play in supporting forest governance. The case of the Association of Forest Communities of Petén (ACOFOP) in Guatemala's Maya Biosphere Reserve is discussed, using a framework drawn from research on multipurpose agrarian federations. As it confronts ongoing problems of representation, equity and legitimacy, ACOFOP now encourages associated community forest concessions to diversify beyond commercial timber into collectively organized non-timber forest activities. Diversification, however, brings new governance issues with new participants, objectives and organizational logics that challenge ACOFOP to change while maintaining characteristics that support successful advocacy of its members' interests. ACOFOP and its members actively experiment with several organizational alternatives, each with diverse implications for the balancing of political and economic roles. To better understand and support community forestry initiatives, their associations and similar agrarian organizations should be viewed in dynamic rather than static terms, and the central role local participants play in adapting their own organizations recognized.