On the Weak Consistency of Permutation Tests

Consistency of some nonparametric tests with real variables has been studied by several authors under the assumption that population variance is finite and/or in the presence of some violations of the data exchangeability between samples. Since main inferential conclusions of permutation tests concern the actual dataset, where sample sizes are held fixed, we consider the notion of consistency in the weak version (in probability). Here, we characterize weak consistency of permutation tests assuming population mean is finite and without assuming existence of population variance. Moreover, since permutation test statistics do not require to be standardized, we do not assume that data are homoscedastic in the alternative. Several application examples to mostly used test statistics are discussed. A simulation study and some hints for robust testing procedures are also presented.     

Statistical Analysis for the Inverse Trinomial Distribution

This article considers parameter estimation, goodness of fit, likelihood ratio and score tests, and model selection by Akaike information criterion for the inverse trinomial (IT) distribution, a classical one-dimensional random walk distribution. The IT distribution has a cubic variance function of the mean and is a generalization of the negative binomial distribution. Basic distributional properties and expressions for the probability mass function, recurrence formula, moments, and score functions are also presented.     

货币政策操作规则的转变及启示

美联储在货币政策操作规则上放弃了传统的“相机抉择”及“单一规则”,转而采取兼顾可信度和灵活度的“泰勒规则”。我国应采取既对政策工具有规则约束 ,又对当前或预测的经济状况作出反应的积极货币政策操作规则     

关于随机误差标准差的几点思考

从多种角度加深理解标准差的含义,有助于应用.用不同的代号表示贝塞尔公式和标准差的定义式不够妥当.     

Impulsiveness moderates the effects of exogenous attention on the sensitivity to gains and losses in risky lotteries

Does attention have a causal impact on risky decisions? We address this question in a preregistered experiment in which participants accept or reject a series of mixed gambles while exogenously varying how information can be sampled. Specifically, in each trial participants observe the outcomes of a mixed-gamble with gains and losses presented sequentially. To isolate the causal role of attention on the decision process, we manipulate for how long a specific attribute is presented before showing the next one (e.g., 600 ms/800 ms vs 400 ms). Our results partially confirm our preregistered hypotheses that longer exposure to an attribute increases its weight on the decision. While we find no effects on choice frequency, we observe specific effects on the decision weights of our Random Utility Model. Presenting losses longer (for 600 ms, but not 800 ms) than gains (400 ms) leads to increased sensitivity for losses. When gains are presented for longer (600 ms and 800 ms) than losses (400 ms), the participants show increased sensitivity to both gain and loss values in their decision. Loss aversion reflects this trend across attention treatments, but differences remain non-significant. Further exploratory analyses show that specifically participants with higher impulsiveness become more sensitive to attribute values when gains are presented for longer. Jointly, these results support the notion that attention has a causal impact on the sensitivity to specific attributes during risky choice. Moreover, our results underline the moderating role of impulsiveness on the relationship between attention and choice.     

Effectiveness of random payment in Experiments: A meta-Analysis of dictator games

Monetary incentives remain an integral component of economics experiments. However, the experimental economics literature is inconclusive when it comes to the effectiveness of random payment mechanisms, specifically in non-strategic individual decision experiments. To contribute to the literature on incentives in experiments, this study performed a meta-analysis of 94 dictator game studies and examined the effect of two frequently used random payment mechanisms on behavior. The mechanisms analyzed were the random problem selection procedure (RPSP) and between-subject random incentivized system (BRIS). The meta-analysis showed that RPSP and BRIS did not significantly alter behavior when compared to a single incentivized decision and incentivizing all subjects, respectively. The results support the effectiveness of RPSP and BRIS in nonstrategic individual decision experiments.