On the use of quasi-likelihood for estimation in hidden-Markov random fields

This paper illustrates the use of quasi-likelihood methods of inference for hidden Markov random fields. These are simple to use and can be employed under circumstances where only the model form and its covariance structure are specified. In particular they can be used to derive the same estimating equations as the E-M algorithm or change of measure methods, which make full distributional assumptions.     

中国已婚女性意愿生育数的影响因素分析

本文利用2004年中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）数据,分析了个人因素、家庭因素以及社会因素对中国已婚女性意愿生育数的影响。结果显示,个人因素如年龄、受教育程度、工作单位类型及月均收入水平对其意愿生育数的影响具有显著的统计学意义;社会因素如城乡、所在省份亦对意愿生育数有影响;但家庭因素,被调查者有无兄弟姐妹对其意愿生育数影响的统计学意义不显著。     

人口迁移与流动对我国各地区经济影响的实证分析

在对近十年来我国人口迁移和流动的时空演变格局进行初步考察的基础上,文章利用面板数据的变系数模型分别实证考察了人口迁移和流动对我国各地区(省域)经济的影响。结果发现:(1)我国各地区间人口迁移相对平稳,而人口流动在2000年以后呈现出持续快速增长的态势,且空间流向极不均衡;(2)人口的迁移和流动对中国整体经济来说是一个帕累托改进;(3)户籍制度对于发达地区起到了人才沙漏的作用;(4)对于中部的绝大部分地区以及西部的一些人口输出大省,伴随人口迁出而引起的人力资本流失对当地经济的负面影响开始凸显出来,人口流出虽然基本出现一个正面影响,但对本地经济发展的贡献并不如我们预想的那么明显。     

中国古代建筑艺术中的凝视

中国古代建筑非常重视"象",但"象"大多依循程式,述而不作。因建筑之"象"既是视觉的社会建构之物,也是社会的视觉建构中介。"象"致力于成为生产"凝视"的欲望机器,而"象"的生成与传播又建基于由"礼"衍生的"数"、"位"、"文"。因此,它们分别担当了建筑凝视中的形塑机制、结构技术、话语背景角色。     

新生代农民工体面劳动问题研究

目前,新生代农民工仍然在就业领域内面临着一系列的歧视,对于发达的珠三角和长三角地区而言,积极推进体面劳动,让新生代农民工不仅有一份工作,而且有一份满意的工作,应当是当前和未来相当长时期内改善民生的重心所在,为此必须要在思想观念和具体的体制机制等方面进行相应的调整。     

加强新生代农民工培训工作的思考

新生代农民工是提高企业实力、推进工业化发展和促进城市健康发展的重要社群,他们是经济发展的重要力量,其工作合力和能量巨大。提升他们的素质与能力是科学发展的内容与任务,是实现人的全面发展和改善、提高社会质量的重要标志。农民工素质的提升关乎着企业、城市和社会的发展及水平;重视、培训新生代农民工是制造业与社会发展之首务,它有助于提升人口质量、企业品质与企业竞争力,有利于达成包容性增长和全面实现小康。     

中古汉地之西域文化

社会文化生成与历史生成相互促生.文化生成主要在于文化接触、交往交融而形成复合文化.社会生成,主要指不同形态社会力量(生产方式、主体等)碰撞交流,形成新的社会特质.历史生成,因历史过程、历史事件尤其朝代更替或政权变更,使主体及其文化迁移或滞留,而产生新的社会主体或结构.即历史生成实质涵括或促动社会文化生成.同时,社会与文化生成积淀或敦促历史生成.族属、信仰之转换、转向通常基于文化、社会和历史的生成.即历史生成往往基于社会文化生成.自古代经中世纪至近代,西域文化不断东渐中土,与南北方汉文化交融生成,逐步成为现今汉文化的重要构成.此亦历史生成之内容.     

Examining educational inequalities in two national systems: a comparison of the North African second generation in France and the Mexican second generation in the United States

This paper aims to compare the educational outcomes of children of immigrants in France and in the United States to highlight the ethnic educational inequalities in both countries. The comparison focuses on children from two groups: North Africans in France and Mexicans in the United States. By using two longitudinal datasets, the French Educational Panel Survey and Add Health, we examine aspirations, expectations, and secondary attainment in the two contexts. We explore in particular the role of parental education on attainment. Immigrant families have high educational aspirations in both contexts. North-African families express higher aspirations than native French with similar background, while there are no significant differences between second-generation Mexicans and the majority group net of parental education. Second-generation children are disadvantaged in school in both countries; they are more likely to drop out and less likely to graduate from high school, but most of the disadvantage is related to their social background. Net of social background, the Mexican second generation does not differ from the majority group while the North African second generation is more likely to get the French high school diploma than their peers of French origins, in line with their high aspirations. However, North Africans are more likely to receive the technological baccalauréat than the general baccalauréat.     

种次号作为书次号时辅助区分号的设置与应用

本文论述在以种次号作为书次号时如何合理使用辅助区分号,使得馆藏排架更加科学合理,方便读者利用。     

Deconvolution methods for non-parametric inference in two-level mixed models

Summary.  We develop a general non-parametric approach to the analysis of clustered data via random effects. Assuming only that the link function is known, the regression functions and the distributions of both cluster means and observation errors are treated non-parametrically. Our argument proceeds by viewing the observation error at the cluster mean level as though it were a measurement error in an errors-in-variables problem, and using a deconvolution argument to access the distribution of the cluster mean. A Fourier deconvolution approach could be used if the distribution of the error-in-variables were known. In practice it is unknown, of course, but it can be estimated from repeated measurements, and in this way deconvolution can be achieved in an approximate sense. This argument might be interpreted as implying that large numbers of replicates are necessary for each cluster mean distribution, but that is not so; we avoid this requirement by incorporating statistical smoothing over values of nearby explanatory variables. Empirical rules are developed for the choice of smoothing parameter. Numerical simulations, and an application to real data, demonstrate small sample performance for this package of methodology. We also develop theory establishing statistical consistency.