新诗潮场景或镜像:另一种喧嚣与裂变

如果说朦胧诗在20世纪70年代末的崛起,标志着与文革等政治性文学或工具文学传统的断裂和五四人的文学的复兴,那么1985年之后的第三代诗歌运动,就更是一次断裂行动。在这期间,全国诗歌社团或群体在不断地聚合和涌现,并最终汇成了告别和超越朦胧诗写作范式的洪峰大潮。     

著者号码表标准化研究述评

2 0余年来 ,人们呕心沥血研究的 2 0余种标准化著者号码表 (方案 )之所以没能达到标准化书次号要求 ,并不是努力不够 ,而是因为著者号在取号原理上只是一种“类区分”方法 ,按照著者号取号原理区分出来的只是某著者的一类不同著作 ,因而理论上不可能成为统一书次号。     

Posterior consistency of random effects models for binary data

In longitudinal studies or clustered designs, observations for each subject or cluster are dependent and exhibit intra-correlation. To account for this dependency, we consider Bayesian analysis for conditionally specified models, so-called generalized linear mixed model. In nonlinear mixed models, the maximum likelihood estimator of the regression coefficients is typically a function of the distribution of random effects, and so the misspecified choice of the distribution of random effects can cause bias in the estimator. To avoid the problem of the misspecification of the distribution of random effects, one can resort in nonparametric approaches. We give sufficient conditions for posterior consistency of the distribution of random effects as well as regression coefficients.     

Testing for coefficient stability of AR(1) model when the null is an integrated or a stationary process

In this paper, we propose a new test for coefficient stability of an AR(1) model against the random coefficient autoregressive model of order 1 neither assuming a stationary nor a non-stationary process under the null hypothesis of a constant coefficient. The proposed test is obtained as a modification of the locally best invariant (LBI) test by Lee [(1998). Coefficient constancy test in a random coefficient autoregressive model. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 74, 93–101]. We examine finite sample properties of the proposed test by Monte Carlo experiments comparing with other existing tests, in particular, the LBI test by McCabe and Tremayne [(1995). Testing a time series for difference stationary. Ann. Statist. 23 (3), 1015–1028], which is for the null of a unit root process against the alternative of a stochastic unit root process.     

以先辈崇高精神熏陶未来建设人才

阐述先辈崇高精神的教育意义,论述其育人的着力点,提出弘扬先辈精神应重在实效。     

Estimation of the basic reproduction number for infectious diseases from age-stratified serological survey data

The basic reproduction number of an infection, R ₀, is the average number of secondary infections generated by a single typical infective individual in a totally susceptible population. It is directly related to the effort required to eliminate infection. We consider statistical methods for estimating R ₀ from age-stratified serological survey data. The main difficulty is indeterminacy, since the contacts between individuals of different ages are not observed. We show that, given an estimate of the average age-specific hazard of infection, a particular leading left eigenfunction is required to specify R ₀. We review existing methods of estimation in the light of this indeterminacy. We suggest using data from several infections transmitted via the same route, and we propose that the choice of model be guided by a criterion based on similarity of their contact functions. This approach also allows model uncertainty to be taken into account. If one infection induces no lasting immunity, we show that the only additional assumption required to estimate R ₀ is that the contact function is symmetric. When matched data on two or more infections transmitted by the same route are available, the methods may be extended to incorporate the effect of individual heterogeneity. The approach can also be applied in partially vaccinated populations and to populations comprising loosely linked communities. The methods are illustrated with data on hepatitis A, mumps, rubella, parvovirus, Haemophilus influenzae type b and measles infection.     

Optimal design for linear regression models in the presence of heteroscedasticity caused by random coefficients

Random coefficients may result in heteroscedasticity of observations. For particular situations, where only one observation is available per individual, we derive optimal designs based on the geometry of the design locus.     

A note on Markov chain Monte Carlo sweep strategies

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) routines have become a fundamental means for generating random variates from distributions otherwise difficult to sample. The Hastings sampler, which includes the Gibbs and Metropolis samplers as special cases, is the most popular MCMC method. A number of implementations are available for running these MCMC routines varying in the order through which the components or blocks of the random vector of interest X are cycled or visited. The two most common implementations are the deterministic sweep strategy, whereby the components or blocks of X are updated successively and in a fixed order, and the random sweep strategy, whereby the coordinates or blocks of X are updated in a randomly determined order. In this article, we present a general representation for MCMC updating schemes showing that the deterministic scan is a special case of the random scan. We also discuss decision criteria for choosing a sweep strategy.     

Development of a multiattribute synthetic-np chart

Over the last few decades, multiattribute control charts have been widely recommended in practice. They outperform the simultaneous uniattribute charts for monitoring multiattribute processes in many applications. Jolayemi [A statistical model for the design of multiattribute control charts. Indian J Stat. 1999;61:351–365] developed a statistical model for the design of a multiattribute np (Mnp) chart. Based on this model, a multiattribute synthetic (MSyn) chart is proposed in this article. Furthermore, the main features of the MSyn chart and Mnp chart are integrated to build a multiattribute Syn-np (MSyn-np) chart. The results of the comparative studies indicate that the new MSyn-np chart significantly outperforms the Mnp chart and MSyn chart by 83% and 27%, respectively, in terms of the average number of defectives over a wide range of process shifts under different circumstances.