海洋钻井隔水管顶张力分析

隔水管系统足海洋钻井的主要设备之-本丈对描述隔水管运动的四阶非线性偏徽分方程和边界条件进行了简化，并应用有限差分法对隔水管的受力情况进行数值分析.作用在隔水管上的顶张力，使用四种海况进行研究，并编制了相应的计算程序.通过实例计葬，与美国应力工程服务奋司的计葬结果进行比较，结果完全-致.末文提供的动态分析方法及计葬程序具有方法简便、精确度高和机时省千优点，对设计和校核隔水管系统具有实用价值.     

Asymptotic distribution of regression correlation coefficient for Poisson regression model

This study treats an asymptotic distribution for measures of predictive power for generalized linear models (GLMs). We focus on the regression correlation coefficient (RCC) that is one of the measures of predictive power. The RCC, proposed by Zheng and Agresti is a population value and a generalization of the population value for the coefficient of determination. Therefore, the RCC is easy to interpret and familiar. Recently, Takahashi and Kurosawa provided an explicit form of the RCC and proposed a new RCC estimator for a Poisson regression model. They also showed the validity of the new estimator compared with other estimators. This study discusses the new statistical properties of the RCC for the Poisson regression model. Furthermore, we show an asymptotic normality of the RCC estimator.     

Regularized proportional odds models

The proportional odds model (POM) is commonly used in regression analysis to predict the outcome for an ordinal response variable. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) approach is typically used to obtain the parameter estimates. The likelihood estimates do not exist when the number of parameters, p, is greater than the number of observations n. The MLE also does not exist if there are no overlapping observations in the data. In a situation where the number of parameters is less than the sample size but p is approaching to n, the likelihood estimates may not exist, and if they exist they may have quite large standard errors. An estimation method is proposed to address the last two issues, i.e. complete separation and the case when p approaches n, but not the case when p>n. The proposed method does not use any penalty term but uses pseudo-observations to regularize the observed responses by downgrading their effect so that they become close to the underlying probabilities. The estimates can be computed easily with all commonly used statistical packages supporting the fitting of POMs with weights. Estimates are compared with MLE in a simulation study and an application to the real data.     

Confidence intervals for treatment effect from restricted maximum likelihood

An explicit form of confidence intervals for the treatment effect in random effects meta-analysis model obtained from Harville–Jeske–Kenward–Roger approach is given. These restricted likelihood based intervals are compared to alternative procedures commonly used in collaborative studies when the number of participants is small and study-specific variances are heterogeneous. Monte Carlo simulation experiments show that the former intervals have quite conservative coverage probabilities and favor the latter intervals.     

Selected indicators for evaluation of eco-innovation projects

This paper addresses a particular innovation projects category, that is, eco-innovation, in line with the fact that a lot of research has been recently carried out in this area, due to increasing attention. Eco-innovation projects are related to development and introducing the new products, processes and services that reduce the overall negative impact on the environment, putting the business and innovation together to create sustainable solutions. The aim of our research is developing a model for prioritization of the most frequent eco-innovation projects in the recycling field. It should be one of the key challenges for national economies as it happens to be one of the current priorities and burning issues for the European Commission (Horizon 2020, CIP, COSME, etc.), giving the proposed model framework. The ranking has been established with regard to common national economy benefits defined through identified criteria, by applying the well-known analytic hierarchy process method of multi-criteria decision-making.     

基于DEA模型的动漫产业竞争力分析

本文概述了产业竞争力的基本内涵以及波特的钻石模型,基于SWOT对杭州动漫产业竞争力进行了详细的定性分析,并运用DEA模型对动漫产业竞争力进行了相应的评价,从多个角度为杭州动漫产业竞争力的提升提出了对策建议。     

Combining forecasts of electricity consumption in China with time-varying weights updated by a high-order Markov chain model

Electricity consumption forecasting has been always playing a vital role in power system management and planning. Inaccurate prediction may cause wastes of scarce energy resource or electricity shortages. However, forecasting electricity consumption has proven to be a challenging task due to various unstable factors. Especially, China is undergoing a period of economic transition, which highlights this difficulty. This paper proposes a time-varying-weight combining method, i.e. High-order Markov chain based Time-varying Weighted Average (HM-TWA) method to predict the monthly electricity consumption in China. HM-TWA first calculates the in-sample time-varying combining weights by quadratic programming for the individual forecasts. Then it predicts the out-of-sample time-varying adaptive weights through extrapolating these in-sample weights using a high-order Markov chain model. Finally, the combined forecasts can be obtained. In addition, to ensure that the sample data have the same properties as the required forecasts, a reasonable multi-step-ahead forecasting scheme is designed for HM-TWA. The out-of-sample forecasting performance evaluation shows that HM-TWA outperforms the component models and traditional combining methods, and its effectiveness is further verified by comparing it with some other existing models.     

Popularity breeds contempt: The evolution of reputational dislike relations and friendships in high school

In this study, we examined the dynamics of the perception of “dislike” ties (reputational dislike) among adolescents within the contexts of friendship, perceived popularity, substance use, and Facebook use. Survey data were collected from a longitudinal sample of 238 adolescents from the 11th and 12th grades in one California high school. We estimated stochastic actor-based network dynamic models, using reports of reputational dislike, friendships, and perceived popularity, to identify factors associated with the maintenance and generation reputational dislike ties. The results showed that high-status adolescents and more frequent Facebook users tended to become perceived as or stay disliked by their peers over time. There was a tendency for friendships to promote the creation and maintenance of reputational disliking but not vice versa. Adolescents tended to perceive others as disliked when their friends also perceived them as disliked. There was no evidence that either cigarette smoking or drinking alcohol affected reputational dislike dynamics. This study highlights the important role that the hierarchical peer system, online peer context, and friendships play in driving information diffusion of negative peer relations among adolescents.     

Periodic integer-valued bilinear time series model

This paper deals with the study of some probabilistic and statistical properties of a periodic integer-valued diagonal bilinear model. The existence of a periodically strict stationary integer-valued process is shown. Sufficient conditions for the periodically stationary, both in the first and second orders, are established. The closed-forms of the mean and the second moment are obtained. The closed-form of the periodic autocovariance function is established. The Yule–Walker estimations of the underlying parameters are obtained. A simulation study is provided.