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291.
For doubly truncated data, i.e. the variables of interest are only observable if they lie in a certain random interval, an additive hazard model with time-dependent regression coefficients is investigated. Consistency and asymptotic normality are proven under mild assumptions. A simulation study investigates the finite sample properties and the influence of the truncation distribution on the estimation error. Finally, the method is applied to a doubly truncated data set of German companies, where the age at insolvency is of interest. 相似文献
292.
《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2012,82(5):333-345
The studied topic is motivated by the problem of interlaboratory comparisons. This paper focuses on the confidence interval estimation of the between group variance in the unbalanced heteroscedastic one-way random effects model. Several interval estimators are proposed and compared by means of the simulation study. The most recommended (safest) is the confidence interval based on Bonferroni's inequality. 相似文献
293.
Recursive expected utility and the separation of attitudes towards risk and ambiguity: an experimental study 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
We use the multiple price list method and a recursive expected utility theory of smooth ambiguity to separate out attitude
towards risk from that towards ambiguity. Based on this separation, we investigate if there are differences in agent behaviour
under uncertainty over gain amounts vis-a-vis uncertainty over loss amounts. On an aggregate level, we find that (i) subjects
are risk averse over gains and risk seeking over losses, displaying a “reflection effect” and (ii) they are ambiguity neutral
over gains and are mildly ambiguity seeking over losses. Further analysis shows that on an individual level, and with respect
to both risky and ambiguous prospects, there is limited incidence of a reflection effect where subjects are risk/ambiguity
averse (seeking) in gains and seeking (averse) in losses, though this incidence is higher for ambiguous prospects. A very
high proportion of such cases of reflection exhibit risk (ambiguity) aversion in gains and risk (ambiguity) seeking in losses,
with the reverse effect being significantly present in the case of risk but almost absent in case of ambiguity. Our results
suggest that reflection across gains and losses is not a stable individual characteristic, but depends upon whether the form
of uncertainty is precise or ambiguous, since we rarely find an individual who exhibits reflection in both risky and ambiguous
prospects. We also find that correlations between attitudes towards risk and ambiguity were domain dependent.
相似文献
294.
295.
This paper reports a violation of rank-dependent utility with inverse S-shaped probability weighting for binary gambles. The paper starts with a violation of expected utility theory: one-stage gambles elicit systematically different utilities than theoretically equivalent two-stage gambles. This systematic disparity does not disappear, but becomes more pronounced after correction for inverse S-shaped probability weighting. The data are also inconsistent with configural weight theory and Machina's fanning out hypothesis. Possible explanations for the data are loss aversion and anchoring and insufficient adjustment. 相似文献
296.
《Omega》2017
This paper focuses on qualitative multi-attribute group decision making (MAGDM) with linguistic information in terms of single linguistic terms and/or flexible linguistic expressions. To do so, we propose a new linguistic decision rule based on the concepts of random preference and stochastic dominance, by a probability based interpretation of weight information. The importance weights and the concept of fuzzy majority are incorporated into both the multi-attribute and collective decision rule by the so-called weighted ordered weighted averaging operator with the input parameters expressed as probability distributions over a linguistic term set. Moreover, a probability based method is proposed to measure the consensus degree between individual and collective overall random preferences based on the concept of stochastic dominance, which also takes both the importance weights and the fuzzy majority into account. As such, our proposed approaches are based on the ordinal semantics of linguistic terms and voting statistics. By this, on one hand, the strict constraint of the uniform linguistic term set in linguistic decision making can be released; on the other hand, the difference and variation of individual opinions can be captured. The proposed approaches can deal with qualitative MAGDM with single linguistic terms and flexible linguistic expressions. Two application examples taken from the literature are used to illuminate the proposed techniques by comparisons with existing studies. The results show that our proposed approaches are comparable with existing studies. 相似文献
297.
Moawia Alghalith 《Journal of applied statistics》2009,36(10):1097-1100
This article provides empirical comparative statics under simultaneous price and output uncertainty. In so doing, it presents a simple (one-step) and general statistical methodology under price and output uncertainty. 相似文献
298.
Miyamoto's (1988, 1992) generic utility theory (GUT) subsumes a broad class of bilinear utility models. Chechile and Cooke (1997) tested the GUT class of models and found model failure due to the systematic variation of a parameter that should be a positive constant across a range of contexts. In the current study, an improved experimental design is employed to evaluate utility theory. The current study provides further evidence against the GUT class of models for mixed gambles. Moreover, evidence is also provided to demonstrate individual behavior that is incompatible with a coherent bilinear utility theory of choice behavior in the context of mixed gambles with gains and losses. 相似文献
299.
Guy Katriel 《随机性模型》2014,30(3):251-271
We study the gambler’s ruin problem with a general distribution of the payoffs in each game. Assuming the expected value of the payoff distribution is negative, so that eventual ruin occurs with probability 1, we are interested in the distribution of the duration to ruin, also known as the first-passage time distribution. A generating function for this distribution is obtained. Exact expressions for the expected value and variance of this distribution, as well as asymptotic expressions for the case of large initial wealth, are derived. 相似文献
300.
《Omega》2016
A risk-averse firm׳s financial hedging activity can impact the decision making in its daily operations. We introduce a CE-based approach that can help the firm to simplify the procedure in making hedging-consistent decisions. A key feature of this new approach is that it allows for the existence of nonfinancial random factors, which give rise to the risk exposure that cannot be hedged in the financial market. By using a CE operator, we show that the optimal operational policy can be obtained by maximizing the CE-based value function. Although the CE operator may bring additional nonlinearity to the value function, we find that the commonly desired base-stock policy can remain optimal under specific conditions. We hope that this new approach can help pave the way for future investigation on joint operations management and financial hedging problems in dynamic settings. 相似文献