后古典时代“审美”困境十图解

“后古典主义”是向中国现代美学历史进程延滞并占据主导地位的古典主义,“后古典时代”既涵盖王国维美学之后亦即20世纪初至今的中国美学百余年的历史,又特指“文革”结束至今被称为“新时期”的三十多年的发展过程。在后一个时期中,“审美”问题占据中心地位,而中国当代美学对这个问题的理解和阐述,就总体而言仍深陷古典主义之中;在纯审美和纯功利之间做周期性摆动和转换,这已成为中国当代美学的基本路数和常规现象。正视并深入研究其形成的条件和原因,或许可以找到走出困境进而推动中国美学现代进程的门径。     

When an Event Makes a Difference

For (S, Σ) a measurable space, let and be convex, weak^* closed sets of probability measures on Σ. We show that if ∪ satisfies the Lyapunov property , then there exists a set A ∈ Σ such that min_μ1∈ μ₁(A) > max_μ2 ∈ (A). We give applications to Maxmin Expected Utility (MEU) and to the core of a lower probability.     

个人消费-投资多阶段决策模型

根据经济行为人实际的消费和投资行为,研究其同时对消费与投资进行决策的问题,建立以追求经济行为人的消费与投资的总效用最大化为目的的个人消费-投资多阶段决策模型,然后讨论该模型的经济意义,并给出一个数值算例。     

On Elements of Chance

One aspect of the utility of gambling may evidence itself in failures of idempotence, i.e., when all chance outcomes give rise to the same consequence the `gamble' may not be indifferent to its common consequence. Under the assumption of segregation, such gambles can be expressed as the joint receipt of the common consequence and what we call `an element of chance', namely, the same gamble with the common consequence replaced by the status quo. Generalizing, any gamble is indifferent to the joint receipt of its element of chance and a certain consequence, which is called the `kernel equivalent' of the gamble. Under idempotence, the kernel equivalent equals the certainty equivalent. Conditions are reported (Theorem 4) that are sufficient for the kernel equivalents to have the kind of utility representation first discussed by Luce and Fishburn (1991), including being idempotent. This utility representation of the kernel equivalents together with the derived form of utility over joint receipts yields a utility representation of the original structure. Possible forms for the utility of an element of chance are developed.     

Multivariate tests comparing binomial probabilities, with application to safety studies for drugs

Summary.  In magazine advertisements for new drugs, it is common to see summary tables that compare the relative frequency of several side-effects for the drug and for a placebo, based on results from placebo-controlled clinical trials. The paper summarizes ways to conduct a global test of equality of the population proportions for the drug and the vector of population proportions for the placebo. For multivariate normal responses, the Hotelling T ²-test is a well-known method for testing equality of a vector of means for two independent samples. The tests in the paper are analogues of this test for vectors of binary responses. The likelihood ratio tests can be computationally intensive or have poor asymptotic performance. Simple quadratic forms comparing the two vectors provide alternative tests. Much better performance results from using a score-type version with a null-estimated covariance matrix than from the sample covariance matrix that applies with an ordinary Wald test. For either type of statistic, asymptotic inference is often inadequate, so we also present alternative, exact permutation tests. Follow-up inferences are also discussed, and our methods are applied to safety data from a phase II clinical trial.     

Nonlinear Discriminant Functions for Mixed Random Walk Models

A procedure is presented for finding maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of a mixture of two random walk distributions in two cases, using classified and unclassified observations. Based on small sample size, estimation of nonlinear discriminant functions is considered. Throughout simulation experiments, the performance of the corresponding estimated nonlinear discriminant functions is investigated. The total probabilities of misclassification and percentage biases are evaluated and discussed.     

三层组织内的串谋理论分析

引入监督层,建立了三层层级组织结构模型,并对这种结构中可能存在的串谋行为进行了分析;利用成本利益分析方法对委托人是否要雇佣监督者和是否要关心串谋作了分析和论证.     

Deletions in random binary search trees: A story of errors

The usual assumptions for the average case analysis of binary search trees (BSTs) are random insertions and random deletions. If a BST is built by n random insertions the expected number of key comparisons necessary to access a node is 2 ln n+O(1). This well-known result is already contained in the first papers on such ‘random’ BSTs. However, if random insertions are intermixed with random deletions the analysis of the resulting BST seems to become more intricate. At least this is the impression one gets from the related publications since 1962, and it is quite appropriate to speak of a story of errors in this context, as will be seen in the present survey paper, giving an overview on this story.     

Networks in Conflict: Theory and Evidence From the Great War of Africa

We study from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective how a network of military alliances and enmities affects the intensity of a conflict. The model combines elements from network theory and from the politico‐economic theory of conflict. We obtain a closed‐form characterization of the Nash equilibrium. Using the equilibrium conditions, we perform an empirical analysis using data on the Second Congo War, a conflict that involves many groups in a complex network of informal alliances and rivalries. The estimates of the fighting externalities are then used to infer the extent to which the conflict intensity can be reduced through (i) dismantling specific fighting groups involved in the conflict; (ii) weapon embargoes; (iii) interventions aimed at pacifying animosity among groups. Finally, with the aid of a random utility model, we study how policy shocks can induce a reshaping of the network structure.