Uncertainty with Partial Information on the Possibility of the Events

The Choquet expected utility model deals with nonadditive probabilities (or capacities). Their dependence on the information the decision-maker has about the possibility of the events is taken into account. Two kinds of information are examined: interval information (for instance, the percentage of white balls in an urn is between 60% and 100%) and comparative information (for instance, the information that there are more white balls than black ones). Some implications are shown with regard to the core of the capacity and to two additive measures which can be derived from capacities: the Shapley value and the nucleolus. Interval information bounds prove to be satisfied by all probabilities in the core, but they are not necessarily satisfied by the nucleolus (when the core is empty) and the Shapley value. We must introduce the constrained nucleolus in order for these bounds to be satisfied, while the Shapley value does not seem to be adjustable. On the contrary, comparative information inequalities prove to be not necessarily satisfied by all probabilities in the core and we must introduce the constrained core in order for these inequalities be satisfied. However, both the nucleolus and the Shapley value satisfy the comparative information inequalities, and the Shapley value does it more strictly than the nucleolus. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

唯美主义与康德美学——“审美无利害性”概念的确立与“为艺术而艺术”命题的提出

康德美学所提出的“审美无利害性”概念在理论上给当时的文学艺术极大的启发,文学艺术转向自身的价值追求,开创了西方现代批评的先锋。文中通过分析康德对审美无利害性的阐释,以及唯美主义思潮是如何吸收康德美学思想、进而提出“艺术无功利”和“为艺术而艺术”等惊世骇俗的理论口号,并厘清它与康德美学的关系,从而更准确地把握这一文艺思潮的历史意义,及其在文学史中应有的地位。     

A compound Rayleigh survival model and its application to randomly censored data

Received: May 5, 1999; revised version: June 15, 2000     

Great Expectations. Part I: On the Customizability of Generalized Expected Utility

We propose a generalization of expected utility that we call generalized EU (GEU), where a decision maker’s beliefs are represented by plausibility measures and the decision maker’s tastes are represented by general (i.e., not necessarily real-valued) utility functions. We show that every agent, “rational” or not, can be modeled as a GEU maximizer. We then show that we can customize GEU by selectively imposing just the constraints we want. In particular, we show how each of Savage’s postulates corresponds to constraints on GEU.     

Ellsberg Revisited: An Experimental Study

An extension to Ellsberg's experiment demonstrates that attitudes to ambiguity and compound objective lotteries are tightly associated. The sample is decomposed into three main groups: subjective expected utility subjects, who reduce compound objective lotteries and are ambiguity neutral, and two groups that exhibit different forms of association between preferences over compound lotteries and ambiguity, corresponding to alternative theoretical models that account for ambiguity averse or seeking behavior.     

The effect of product variety on purchase probability

Regarding the effect of product variety on purchase probability, there exist findings which demonstrate a positive effect of variety for small assortments and a negative effect of variety for large assortments. Despite these results, little evidence exists about the causal mechanism of this effect. We conduct a field study among German consumer electronics customers to investigate the previously proposed constructs of anticipated product utility, anticipated regret and evaluation costs. The results suggest that anticipated regret and evaluation costs play a powerful role in explaining the negative link between variety and purchase probability for high variety assortments. Anticipated product utility on the other hand serves to explain part of the positive causality for low variety assortments. The results obtained give rise to recommendations for the planning of assortments.

On multiattributive risk aversion: some clarifying results

This article sheds some light on three concepts of risk aversion in a multiattributive decision framework introduced into the literature by Kihlstrom and Mirman (J Econ Theor 8:361–388, 1974), de Finetti (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia 11:685–709, 1952), Richard (Manage Sci 22:12–21, 1975), and Meyer (Preferences over time, New York, pp. 473–514, 1976). We review the three multiattributive risk aversion definitions as well as the notion of partial risk aversion, give a translation of these concepts into properties of the multiattributive utility function and reveal that Meyer’s, de Finetti/Richard’s concepts are very closely related. Moreover, it is shown that any additive utility function is risk neutral in the sense of de Finetti/Richard and Meyer independently of the risk attitude that it expresses in terms of Kihlstrom/Mirman. Additionally we introduce a multiattributive utility function derived from a one-dimensional function that leads to a coincidence of the differently defined risk attitudes.

全球化中的消费文化动力及商业模式更新

在经济全球化背景下消费文化已成为经济活动的动力,消费者在对消费文化的体验中参与了生产,非物质性的需要满足使得人力资本价值提高,消费内生着生产的特征更为明显;消费文化生产着符号意义的商品品牌价值和等级价值;消费文化所带来的动力作用在某种意义上拉动着商业模式的创新。     

户部山古建筑群文化遗址保护与开发现状

户部山是徐州城市重要的古建筑群文化遗址,户部山古建筑群文化遗址保护及再利用现状表明,建筑密度的合理性以及城市管理中的疏漏,是古建筑文化遗址保护和开发利用中需要关注的突出问题。历史街区的保护绝不是单纯意义上的保护,还必须将其纳入到现代生活的轨道上来,需要改善基础设施、公共服务设施、环境景观及建筑单体内部的空间组织设施条件。不仅要强调保护历史元素和信息,也需要强化历史元素和信息在经济成长中所扮演的角色。     

Convergence of Known Distributions to Limiting Normal or Non-normal Distributions: An Elementary Ratio Technique

This article presents an elementary informal technique for deriving the convergence of known distributions to limiting normal or non-normal distributions. The presentation should be of interest to teachers and students of first year graduate level courses in probability and statistics.