Modified Normal-based Approximation to the Percentiles of Linear Combination of Independent Random Variables with Applications

A modified normal-based approximation for calculating the percentiles of a linear combination of independent random variables is proposed. This approximation is applicable in situations where expectations and percentiles of the individual random variables can be readily obtained. The merits of the approximation are evaluated for the chi-square and beta distributions using Monte Carlo simulation. An approximation to the percentiles of the ratio of two independent random variables is also given. Solutions based on the approximations are given for some classical problems such as interval estimation of the normal coefficient of variation, survival probability, the difference between or the ratio of two binomial proportions, and for some other problems. Furthermore, approximation to the percentiles of a doubly noncentral F distribution is also given. For all the problems considered, the approximation provides simple satisfactory solutions. Two examples are given to show applications of the approximation.     

城市经济发展与金融支持的关系研究——以陕西省渭南市为例

城市发展联系着产业发展的微观面与国家战略的宏观面,是经济增长的中观桥梁。采用对数平均迪氏指数法分析渭南银行贷款对城市经济的结构化效率,并将其与产业结构联系起来,搭建起金融支持与实体经济发展之间的桥梁。基于以上认识,研究以银行贷款为主要形式的渭南金融资源是否推动了渭南市经济的发展。同时,研究渭南金融资源是通过何种途径支持渭南市经济发展的问题。研究结果显示,渭南市银行业贷款投放所产生的活动效应对GDP变动总效应的贡献最大,效率效应次之,结构效应则对GDP变动效应作用不明显。     

中国制造2025背景下装备制造业与生产性服务业互动发展研究——基于江苏省投入产出表的分析

以江苏省2002年、2007年和2012年投入产出表为基础,通过计算分析直接消耗系数、完全消耗系数、影响力系数和感应度系数得出结论：江苏省装备制造业对生产性服务业拉动很大,生产性服务业对经济的影响低于社会平均水平,装备制造业与生产性服务业之间的互动发展不足。在此基础上提出推进生产性服务业加速发展、加快发展高端装备制造业和推动装备制造业与生产性服务业互动发展等建议。     

瑞吉欧方案教学在学前儿童家庭教育中的应用研究

方案教学是瑞吉欧教育的一大特色,结合其自身特点和实施步骤,在学前儿童家庭教育中可采用在家庭内部成员之间配合学前儿童开展方案教学、在合作家庭中开展方案教学以及结合幼儿园教育教学的课程延伸三种方式,可以弥补幼儿园教育的不足,丰富学前儿童的主客观经验,表达和记录方式。家长不仅需要转变育儿观念,而且需要掌握瑞吉欧方案教学的基本理念和实践操作步骤。     

“汽车电子与仿真测试”课程中活动引导式教学方法的应用与实践

活动引导式教学法是一种教师在教学过程中,发挥引导作用,在强化学生主体地位的同时,为学生提供特定的学习情景,提高学生的自主学习能力,加深学生对知识的理解以及对实际技能的掌握的一种教学方法。在分析上海理工大学光电学院"汽车电子与仿真测试"课程教学现状的基础上,介绍了活动引导式教学的相关概念,引出了行为活动式教学法在"汽车电子与仿真测试"课程教学中的应用与实践。     

总体国家安全观下我国种子安全问题

在总体国家安全观的视阈下,通过总结我国种业发展、种质资源保护、科研创新、违法犯罪行为打击等方面现状,发现当前我国种子安全存在五大问题:民族种业自主创新能力不强,外企先入为主;种子市场鱼龙混杂,执法监管乏力;涉种子犯罪错综复杂,公安机关打击困难;转基因、农业恐怖主义等安全性问题交叉出现。应通过做强民族种业、完善转基因种子安全性评定、规范市场监管、严厉打击涉种子安全犯罪、树立种子安全观等手段,保障我国种子安全。     

Bioaccessibility of Fukushima‐Accident‐Derived Cs in Soils and the Contribution of Soil Ingestion to Radiation Doses in Children

Ingestion of contaminated soil is one potential internal exposure pathway in areas contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Doses from this pathway can be overestimated if the availability of radioactive nuclides in soils for the gastrointestinal tract is not considered. The concept of bioaccessibility has been adopted to evaluate this availability based on in vitro tests. This study evaluated the bioaccessibility of radioactive cesium from soils via the physiologically‐based extraction test (PBET) and the extractability of those via an extraction test with 1 mol/L of hydrochloric acid (HCl). The bioaccessibility obtained in the PBET was 5.3% ± 1%, and the extractability in the tests with HCl was 16% ± 3%. The bioaccessibility was strongly correlated with the extractability. This result indicates the possibility that the extractability in HCl can be used as a good predictor of the bioaccessibility with PBET. In addition, we assessed the doses to children from the ingestion of soil via hand‐to‐mouth activity based on our PBET results using a probabilistic approach considering the spatial distribution of radioactive cesium in Date City in Fukushima Prefecture and the interindividual differences in the surveyed amounts of soil ingestion in Japan. The results of this assessment indicate that even if children were to routinely ingest a large amount of soil with relatively high contamination, the radiation doses from this pathway are negligible compared with doses from external exposure owing to deposited radionuclides in Fukushima Prefecture.     

A discrete/continuous choice model on a nonconvex budget set

Decreasing block rate pricing is a nonlinear price system often used for public utility services. Residential gas services in Japan and the United Kingdom are provided under this price schedule. The discrete/continuous choice approach is used to analyze the demand under decreasing block rate pricing. However, the nonlinearity problem, which has not been examined in previous studies, arises because a consumer’s budget set (a set of affordable consumption amounts) is nonconvex, and hence, the resulting model includes highly nonlinear functions. To address this problem, we propose a feasible, efficient method of demand estimation on the nonconvex budget. The advantages of our method are as follows: (i) the construction of an Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm with an efficient blanket based on the Hermite–Hadamard integral inequality and the power-mean inequality, (ii) the explicit consideration of the (highly nonlinear) separability condition, which often makes numerical likelihood maximization difficult, and (iii) the introduction of normal disturbance into the discrete/continuous choice model on the nonconvex budget set. The proposed method is applied to estimate the Japanese residential gas demand function and evaluate the effect of price schedule changes as a policy experiment.     

互联网经济中炒信行为的规制路径

互联网经济中的信任主要基于信誉生成，符号化的信誉等级起着配置市场资源的重要作用。为争夺有限的市场资源，商家出现刷单炒信等失信行为。以预防论观之，当下对炒信行为的规制存在诸多问题，主要体现为惩戒力度不大、查处概率低，导致威慑力不充分，无法有效阻吓潜在的炒信行为。造成这种问题的根本原因在于规制路径与边际成本低下的互联网经济不匹配，因此迫切需要创新规制形式。根据预防论的分析逻辑，在当下的规制框架中配套使用信用工具不仅可形成全面而充分的威慑，而且成本很低。信用工具的要义在于促使负面信息的高效流动和失信惩罚机制的完备，应建立整合信息归集、评级、公开、运用的信用制度系统，进而通过声誉制裁和失信联合惩罚制度形成合理的威慑和有效的阻吓。     

Humanizing strategy

In this article, we apply our latest thinking on knowledge to provide insights on how to reconceptualize strategy to cope with a VUCA world, epitomized recently by COVID-19. We demonstrate that business leaders must draw on phronesis, or practical wisdom, for strategy to become more future-oriented, society-focused, dynamic, and human-centric. Using in-depth case studies, we show how companies will survive in the long run if they start with a moral purpose, and end by offering value to customers, contributing to society, living in harmony with nature, and creating a new and better future. We came up with six practices that enable business leaders to create new and better futures, citing evidences from neuroscience. We conclude that humans should be at the center of strategy, driving future-making with the help of digital-led automation. Reconceptualizing strategy based on this “inside-out” approach, the reward to the company is resilience, longevity, and sustainability.