Optimum Mixture Design for the Detection of Synergistic Effects

In mixture experiments, optimal designs for the estimation of parameters, both linear and non-linear, have been discussed by several authors. Optimal designs for the estimation of a subset of parameters have also been investigated. However, designs for testing the effects of certain factors and interactions have been studied only in the context of response surface models. In this article, we attempt to find the optimum design for testing the presence of synergistic effects in a mixture model. The classical F-test has been considered and the optimum design has been obtained so as to maximize the power of the test. It is observed that the barycenters are necessarily the support points of the trace-optimal design.     

Hazard Perception, Risk Perception, and the Need for Decontamination by Residents Exposed to Soil Pollution: The Role of Sustainability and the Limits of Expert Knowledge

This case study examines the hazard and risk perception and the need for decontamination according to people exposed to soil pollution. Using an ecological-symbolic approach (ESA), a multidisciplinary model is developed that draws upon psychological and sociological perspectives on risk perception and includes ecological variables by using data from experts' risk assessments. The results show that hazard perception is best predicted by objective knowledge, subjective knowledge, estimated knowledge of experts, and the assessed risks. However, experts' risk assessments induce an increase in hazard perception only when residents know the urgency of decontamination. Risk perception is best predicted by trust in the risk management. Additionally, need for decontamination relates to hazard perception, risk perception, estimated knowledge of experts, and thoughts about sustainability. In contrast to the knowledge deficit model, objective and subjective knowledge did not significantly relate to risk perception and need for decontamination. The results suggest that residents can make a distinction between hazards in terms of the seriousness of contamination on the one hand, and human health risks on the other hand. Moreover, next to the importance of social determinants of environmental risk perception, this study shows that the output of experts' risk assessments—or the objective risks—can create a hazard awareness rather than an alarming risk consciousness, despite residents' distrust of scientific knowledge.     

The Immediate Impact of the Fukushima Daiichi Accident on Local Property Values

The Fukushima Daiichi accident released huge amounts of radioactive material over a wide area. We can appreciate the geographical extent of radioactive contamination from the information published online by the Japanese government. Historically, this is an unprecedented situation, which allows “natural experimentation” to estimate the causal effects of radioactive contamination on our society. This study focused on property value losses caused by the accident and analyzed changes in land appraisals around the Fukushima Daiichi plant from July 2010 to July 2011 within the framework of hedonic approach. Thus, we estimated the short‐run impact of the contamination or the change in marginal value of proximity to the plant. The results suggest that the appraisals significantly and monotonically depreciated with increasing contamination levels. However, there was no evidence to suggest changes in the marginal value of proximity to the plant. A comparison between the appraisals and transaction prices indicates that this result could be interpreted as an underestimate of actual property value losses.     

从河南永城市实例看基层民主建设

基层民主建设是我国社会主义民主政治建设的重要内容,然而,目前国内的基层民主现状却不容乐观。本文以河南永城市为调研对象,深入分析了当前基层民主建设中存在的问题及其原因,提出政治体制改革、扩大自治范围,加快新农村建设、大力发展农村经济,强化教育、转变观念、增强民主参政意识和能力,完善村民自治相关法制等优化基层民主建设的途径。     

GSH Dependence Modeling with an Application to Risk Management

The generalized secant hyperbolic distribution (GSH) can be used to represent financial data with heavy tails as an alternative to the Student-t, because it guarantees the existence of all moments, also with a high kurtosis value. In order to obtain a multivariate extension of the GSH distribution, in this article we present two approaches to model the dependence, the copula approach and independent component analysis. Since the methodologies considered allow to simulate the GSH dependence, we show also the empirical results obtained in the estimation of risk of a financial portfolio by the Monte Carlo method.     

A conceptual framework for the strategic urban project approach for the sustainable redevelopment of “villages in the city” in Guangzhou

China’s recent wave of rapid urbanization generated a specific form of urban development called the “village in the city” (ViC). It is characterized by the dual urban-rural structure and it accommodates, to begin with, the monumental housing needs of rural migrants. Although the issues of ViCs are very specific and enormous, they evidently have a lot in common with those of slum areas and dilapidated urban areas in developed and developing contexts, in which there already is a long experience with upgrading or urban renewal operations. Also in this specific context of upgrading and urban renewal, the strategic urban project approach is generally being advocated. It emphasizes vision development, the coproduction by stakeholders and the implementation of actions. Strategic urban projects are the cornerstone of this approach. This paper sketches a conceptual framework for the strategic urban project approach for the sustainable redevelopment of “villages in the city” (ViCs) in Guangzhou. It makes an attempt to translate the methodologies of the strategic urban project approach to the Chinese context. Adapting the method to deal with the multi-stakeholder environment and complex issues in ViCs is indeed necessary in order to obtain a sustainable redevelopment of ViCs. Consideration is given to the roles and partnerships of key stakeholders, visions at different levels, and specific actions that deal with opportunities and issues in strategic locations.     

Inference and prediction for pareto progressively censored data

Progressively censored data from a classical Pareto distribution are to be used to make inferences about its shape and precision parameters and the reliability function. An approximation form due to Tierney and Kadane (1986) is used for obtaining the Bayes estimates. Bayesian prediction of further observations from this distribution is also considered. When the Bayesian approach is concerned, conjugate priors for either the one or the two parameters cases are considered. To illustrate the given procedures, a numerical example and a simulation study are given.     

Model selection criteria for the varying-coefficient modelling via regularized basis expansions

Varying-coefficient models (VCMs) are useful tools for analysing longitudinal data. They can effectively describe the relationship between predictors and responses repeatedly measured. VCMs estimated by regularization methods are strongly affected by values of regularization parameters, and therefore selecting these values is a crucial issue. In order to choose these parameters objectively, we derive model selection criteria for evaluating VCMs from the viewpoints of information-theoretic and Bayesian approach. Models are estimated by the method of regularization with basis expansions, and then they are evaluated by model selection criteria. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed criteria through Monte Carlo simulations and real data analysis.     

国际反倾销理论及实证研究文献综述

对国际反倾销的研究主要集中在反倾销的实施动机、经济效应以及优化途径等三个方面。国际反倾销的实施动机受到经济因素、政治因素、制度因素等方面的影响,并产生贸易抑制与转移效应、产业链的继发性保护效应、外商直接投资的跨越反倾销税效应以及福利损失效应。反倾销措施的优化分为政府的政治经济目标最优化与经济扭曲及福利损失最小化两类。未来的研究将更加关注国际反倾销的一般均衡与长期效应,通过更多的经验研究来分析反倾销的产业保护效果,以及分析其带来的经济扭曲与福利成本。     

诗性生存理想下的天人合一表达——商业语境下我国文艺电影的精神路向

面对中国商业电影票房出彩而难以温暖人心的尴尬境地,以《山楂树之恋》为代表的我国文艺电影在精神路向上创造出彰显真性情的造境空间,去传达一种能将自然律动与生命之流融为一体的天人合一境界,以修复中国商业电影因为过度追求票房而剑走偏锋所造成的价值坐标倾斜,完成现代人渴望生命诗性生存的理想。