A Theory of Rational Choice under Ignorance

This paper contributes to a theory of rational choice for decision-makers with incomplete preferences due to partial ignorance, whose beliefs are representable as sets of acceptable priors. We focus on the limiting case of `Complete Ignorance' which can be viewed as reduced form of the general case of partial ignorance. Rationality is conceptualized in terms of a `Principle of Preference-Basedness', according to which rational choice should be isomorphic to asserted preference. The main result characterizes axiomatically a new choice-rule called `Simultaneous Expected Utility Maximization'. It can be interpreted as agreement in a bargaining game (Kalai-Smorodinsky solution) whose players correspond to the (extremal) `acceptable priors' among which the decision maker has suspended judgment. An essential but non-standard feature of Simultaneous Expected Utility choices is their dependence on the entire choice set. This is justified by the conception of optimality as compromise rather than as superiority in pairwise comparisons.     

How the Pygmalion Effect operates in intra-family succession: Shared expectations in family SMEs

The Pygmalion Effect is a case of the self-fulfilling prophecy, whereby the expectations of leaders influence the performance of followers (Avolio, Walumbwa, & Weber, 2009; Rosenthal, 1993). Intra-family succession processes, which are hardly ever formalised in small- and medium-sized family enterprises, provide a natural context to explore the perceptions that predecessors have about their successors and where the Pygmalion Effect is expected to occur. However, little is known about how a predecessor’s expectations can affect intra-family firm succession processes. Based on qualitative interviews with key family and non-family members, expectations were analysed in four in-depth case studies of intra-family SME succession processes. The findings show that the Pygmalion Effect operates over time and embraces incumbent, successor, and key stakeholders’ expectations, which support the new leader when facing succession-related challenges.     

Some subjective bayesian considerations in the selection of models

Some considerations relating to the post-data selection of models are discussed. These include some difficulties with orthodox theory, implementation of the likelihood principle, and Bayesian tests of hypotheses.     

我国和西欧地区机床工业企业管理的抽样比较研究

本文通过抽样数据分析对我国和西欧地区的机床工业企业的生产管理进行评价比较。文中首先应用多集合的数据包络分析(DEA)方法,选用3个投入变量和2个产出变量对之进行相对有效性的综合评价。然后,应用t检验和Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验对生产管理的诸方面作显著性差异的检验。指出差距所在,并提出了一些改进管理的参考意见。     

Asymptotically Uniform Tests After Consistent Model Selection in the Linear Regression Model

Abstract

This article specializes the critical value (CV) methods that are based upon (refinements of) Bonferroni bounds, introduced by McCloskey to a problem of inference after consistent model selection in a general linear regression model. The post-selection problem is formulated to mimic common empirical practice and is applicable to both cross-sectional and time series contexts. We provide algorithms for constructing the CVs in this setting and establish uniform asymptotic size results for the resulting tests. The practical implementation of the CVs is illustrated in an empirical application to the effect of classroom size on test scores.     

A Dynamic Model of Investment in the U.S. Beef-Cattle Industry

Reproduction constraints lead to some a priori information that may prove valuable in econo- metrically modeling inventory dynamics within the U.S. cattle herd. The distributed-lag models estimated for animal inventories suggest an implicit incorporation of the age distribution of the herd that is crucial to understanding the retention/culling (investment) decisions. The estimated equations are validated using post-sample observations that were withheld prior to estimation. The final-form dynamic equations have complex roots and protracted price and investment effects. The parameter estimates are used to calculate intermediate and long-run elasticities at the means of relevant variables.     

Almost most powerful tests against composite alternatives

Likelihood ratio considerations are used to derive uniform bounds on the acceptance and rejection regions of the family of locally most powerful randomization tests for a two-sample comparison of censored data, When applied to radioimmunoassay data, these bounds are close enough to permit effective decision making. The methodology extends to a wide class of testing problems.     

语义期待的产生条件及其作用

语义期待是受话人对即将读到(听到)的语义信息产生的心理期待.它是受话人在话语理解过程中利用背景知识、自己对当前文字和言语情景的认识而形成的.其作用涉及到话语信息加工理解的各个层次,使话语字面意义的理解呈现出词汇、句子、语篇三个平面的加工相互制约、相互补充的特点.正确的语义期待可以消除模糊、弥补缺漏、补足省略、纠正错误,对于提高人脑感知和加工话语信息的速度具有普遍意义.错误的语义期待则会干扰语义理解甚至导致误解.     

关于高校树立和落实科学发展观的理性思考

本文提出了高校树立和落实科学发展观应进一步更新办学理念,应坚持学生全面发展与学校全面发展的统一,必须重视规模、结构、质量、效益的协调发展,必须正确处理好改革、发展、稳定三者的关系等观点,并进行了分析和阐释。