Modified likelihood ratio tests in heteroskedastic multivariate regression models with measurement error

In this paper, we develop modified versions of the likelihood ratio test for multivariate heteroskedastic errors-in-variables regression models. The error terms are allowed to follow a multivariate distribution in the elliptical class of distributions, which has the normal distribution as a special case. We derive the Skovgaard-adjusted likelihood ratio statistics, which follow a chi-squared distribution with a high degree of accuracy. We conduct a simulation study and show that the proposed tests display superior finite sample behaviour as compared to the standard likelihood ratio test. We illustrate the usefulness of our results in applied settings using a data set from the WHO MONICA Project on cardiovascular disease.     

男女性别比失衡问题的思考

目前,我国男女性别比例严重失衡,由此带来性犯罪现象增加、婚姻挤压、拜金主义思想等各种社会问题,究其原因,除了传统的重男轻女观念的影响和妇女地位的不平等外,还有科技手段的滥用。应该树立先进的社会性别意识,禁止非法的胎儿性别鉴定,提高女性的社会地位,这样,才能切实解决出生人口性别比例失调问题。     

德、位张力与先秦儒家的性命之学——对楚简《唐虞之道》第14至29号简的思想解读

文章系统解读了楚简《唐虞之道》第14至29号简的思想内涵及脉络,认为这部分简文首先通过尧成为天子之原因的追问,突出了德与位的张力问题,即在应然之理上,有位必当有德,但就实然之事看,有德未必有位.简文对这一德位张力有两个层面的解决方案:一方面,要求有德无位者全力修德,谨守性命,安于时命,养成恒常如一的圆满德行,从而能在得位而治时能“利天下而弗利”；另一方面,要求有位者透悟性命之正,从而能主动尚德授贤、退而养生,这既能使贤者居位而利天下,又能退而养生以自利.简文将“七十致政”之礼普遍化,试图断绝天子终身制的构想,也具有深刻的政治哲学意义.     

Comparing diagnostic tests: test of hypothesis for likelihood ratios

Likelihood ratios (LRs) are used to characterize the efficiency of diagnostic tests. In this paper, we use the classical weighted least squares (CWLS) test procedure, which was originally used for testing the homogeneity of relative risks, for comparing the LRs of two or more binary diagnostic tests. We compare the performance of this method with the relative diagnostic likelihood ratio (rDLR) method and the diagnostic likelihood ratio regression (DLRReg) approach in terms of size and power, and we observe that the performances of CWLS and rDLR are the same when used to compare two diagnostic tests, while DLRReg method has higher type I error rates and powers. We also examine the performances of the CWLS and DLRReg methods for comparing three diagnostic tests in various sample size and prevalence combinations. On the basis of Monte Carlo simulations, we conclude that all of the tests are generally conservative and have low power, especially in settings of small sample size and low prevalence.     

《广绝交论》写作时间的考订及其意义

有关刘孝标《广绝交论》的写作时间，学术界主要有天监七年、天监九年两种观点。考察刘孝标在天监年间的行迹不难发现，天监十一年是刘孝标生平思想变化的重要转折点，以此为界，他由之前的汲汲于仕途功名彻底转向拒弃名利、向往隐逸。这一思想心态的蜕变，是《广绝交论》一文的基本创作前提，该文即作于此年。     

对口支援政策下的产业援疆模式选择与实现路径

积极探索和研究产业援疆模式,有助于实现东西部经济合作,促进产业结构调整,推动新疆自我发展能力的提高。该文基于对口支援政策,总结和借鉴了内地省份飞地经济发展的经验和启示,结合新疆区情,根据产业援疆中的政府作用和资金特点,认为江苏模式、中石化模式、广东模式、山东模式四种较为成功、典型的产业援疆模式及其适用领域,可作为产业援疆借鉴与选择的路径模式,并从产业援疆的市场主体、转移动力、政策体系、运行机制、园区开放等方面就提升产业援疆模式的效率提出了相应的措施和建议。     

汉代统治阶层对民间信仰的限制和引导

汉代民间的鬼神祭祀并非单纯地以祈福禳灾为目的,它还包含有以祝诅等巫术伤害他人,被伤害者甚至有可能是最高统治阶层。祭祀中害人巫术的存在,无疑会对社会治安、统治阶层本身乃至统治秩序的正常运行造成影响。面对这样的挑战,汉代的统治阶层设立严刑峻法、设置祠祝官进行抵御;而统治阶层中的知识分子将先秦以来限制祭祀规模的传统理念用于现实政治,致力于革新鬼神观念、宣扬"淫祀无福",试图在思想上对民众进行引导。     

《全清词·雍乾卷》辑补74首

《全清词·雍乾卷》共收词人近1000家，词作35000多首。然由于清代词籍的复杂性，遗漏在所难免。今翻检清人诗文集及地方志等，为之补录4家词作74首，以备续编采择之需。     

Generalizing the standardized hazard ratio to multivariate proportional hazards regression,with an application to clinical~genomic studies

The standardized hazard ratio for univariate proportional hazards regression is generalized as a scalar to multivariate proportional hazards regression. Estimators of the standardized log hazard ratio are developed, with corrections for bias and for regression to the mean in high-dimensional analyses. Tests of point and interval null hypotheses and confidence intervals are constructed. Cohort sampling study designs, commonly used in prospective–retrospective clinical genomic studies, are accommodated.